The IMF refuses to name the cause of this global chaos. It starts with ‘Donald’ and ends in ‘Trump’ | Greg Jericho

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook has forced it to admit that things have changed since its previous update in January when it blissfully hoped things would be OK. Now there is mostly darkness and despair.The IMF’s January report was titled “Steady amid Divergent Forces”; whereas the latest outlook is headlined “Global Economy in the Shadow of War” and begins “the global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28, 2026.”Far be it for me to gloat, but my suggestion in January that “steady” was not a word to describe the global economy unless you were desperately trying to make the madness of Donald Trump seem normal has aged quite well.If the graph does not display click hereAs ever, the IMF remains unwilling to name Donald Trump

This chart on oil prices shows why Qantas and Virgin are cutting flights and raising fares

Thanks to the US-Israel war on Iran, filling up your car with petrol costs about 40% more than it did in February, and for diesel vehicles it’s closer to 80%.But even those painful increases pale in comparison to the extraordinary rise in the price of jet fuel, which has climbed by a 125% since the start of the Middle East conflict.This increase dwarfs the last global energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Jet fuel peaked at about $US155 a barrel in June of that year; now it’s trading at $US210.Johnathan McMenamin, a senior economist at Barrenjoey, said the explosion in refining margins – the difference between the price of jet fuel and crude – was due to the big Asian refiners struggling to operate with falling oil supplies

Trump threatens to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell amid pressure campaign

Donald Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell if he stays on as US Federal Reserve chair past the end of his tenure and doubled down on a criminal investigation into renovations of the central bank’s headquarters.As the White House pushes Trump’s new nominee to take charge of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, Powell has a month left in the role. The possibility of Powell staying on as chair past 15 May, the official end of his term, has grown amid mounting scrutiny of Trump’s approach to the Fed in the Senate, which is required to approve Warsh’s nomination.“I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time,” Trump said of Powell during an interview on Fox Business. “I’ve held back firing him

Economic shock from Iran war risks driving up global debt levels, says IMF

The Iran war risks triggering a rise in global debt levels, forcing governments to choose between cushioning a cost of living shock and maintaining sound public finances, the International Monetary Fund has warned.Against a volatile backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Washington-based fund said the war could add to the already strained position of government finances throughout the world.In its half-yearly fiscal monitor, the IMF said global debt levels were on track to increase because the war was pushing up the price of energy and food, fuelling higher government borrowing costs, and hitting economic growth.After a rise in gross government debt levels to almost 94% of GDP last year, it warned this figure was on track to reach 100% by 2029, a level previously reached only in the aftermath of the second world war.“The outbreak of war in the Middle East has added a new source of fiscal pressure to an already strained global landscape,” it said in the report

Norwegian group in talks to buy former Liberty Steel works in South Yorkshire

UK officials have entered exclusive talks with a Norwegian startup to buy the former Liberty Steel works in South Yorkshire, in a significant step towards its rescue.Norwegian-owned Blastr is understood to be the bidder preferred by the government’s official receiver to take on ownership of the UK’s largest existing electric arc furnace in Rotherham and other works in Stocksbridge, both in South Yorkshire.The business, formally named Speciality Steel UK (SSUK), has been under the official receiver’s control since August, after the previous owner Sanjeev Gupta lost the ownership in London’s high court.Finding a new buyer would remove a headache for the government, which also a year ago took control of the Chinese-owned British Steel blast furnaces in Scunthorpe, Lincolnshire. Ministers are understood to be looking at fully nationalising that plant

$30m an hour: big oil reaping huge war windfall from consumers, analysis finds

The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies banked more than $30m every hour in unearned profit in the first month of the US-Israeli war in Iran, according to exclusive analysis for the Guardian. Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and ExxonMobil are among the biggest beneficiaries of the bonanza, meaning key opponents of climate action continue to prosper.The conflict pushed the price of oil to an average of $100 (£74) a barrel in March, leading to estimated windfall war profits for the month of $23bn for the companies. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to pre-war levels and the companies will make $234bn by the end of the year if the oil price continues to average $100. The analysis uses data from a leading intelligence provider, Rystad Energy, analysed by Global Witness

Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting to pay hundreds of millions’ worth of royalties to rival family in ‘half loss half win’

Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has lost its bid to retain royalties from the mammoth Hope Downs iron ore project and will be forced to pay Wright Prospecting half of its royalties from the project, worth hundreds of millions of dollars.In a landmark ruling in the Western Australian supreme court on Wednesday, justice Jennifer Smith said that Wright Prospecting had successfully made out its contractual claim to 50% of past and future royalties paid from the project.But the court has dismissed Wright Prospecting’s claim to ownership in other mining assets held by Hancock Prospecting.“It could be found that Wright Prospecting won half of its case and lost half of its case,” Smith said.Sanjiv Manchanda and Garry Korte, senior Hancock Prospecting executives, were in the courtroom for the hearing

Trump’s push to cut interest rates has echoes of ‘banana republic’, says Yellen

The former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has attacked Donald Trump’s push for lower interest rates, comparing it to the actions of a “banana republic”.The US president has repeatedly urged the central bank to slash interest rates, in the hope of cutting the government’s borrowing costs on its $39tn (£29tn) debt.In a post on his Truth Social platform in January, Trump wrote: “We should be paying the LOWEST INTEREST RATE OF ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.”Speaking at an HSBC investor summit in Hong Kong, Yellen said: “How often does the president of a developed country express the view that the interest rate should be set to reduce the debt service cost? This is what you hear in a banana republic.”She argued that inflation can get out of control if central banks fall under the control of politicians whose aim is to borrow more cheaply

Who is the rival family pitted against Gina Rinehart in a long-running court case – and is she still the richest person in Australia?

Gina Rinehart’s company will have to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to a rival business after securing the rights but losing some royalties on a major mine in a landmark court case.The more than 15-year-long Western Australian supreme court case pitted the extended families of Rinehart’s father and his business partner against each other, while tying up mining company Rio Tinto and a string of others.Who won and who lost? Will Rinehart still be the richest person in Australia?Here’s what you need to know.The case involved disputes over the ownership of mining plots in Western Australia’s Pilbara region and over the royalty income from mines developed on the plots.Business partners Peter Wright and Lang Hancock, Gina Rinehart’s father and the founder of Hancock Prospecting, made a series of claims over mining plots from the 1950s onwards

Aegon offloads 200-year-old UK business to Standard Life for £2bn

The Dutch financial services group Aegon has struck a £2bn deal to sell off its almost 200-year-old UK arm to Standard Life, as part of a US push in which the group will be rebranded as Transamerica.Standard Life, previously known as Phoenix Group, said the deal to buy Aegon UK would create a pensions and savings group with 16 million customers and £480bn of assets under administration.Aegon put its UK business up for sale late last year, with companies including Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group named as possible bidders, as part of a wider restructuring that will result in its headquarters moving to the US and rebranding as Transamerica.Aegon’s UK arm, which has 3.7 million customers, traces its roots back to Edinburgh in 1831, when it was founded as Scottish Equitable

Gina Rinehart’s son says he wants to be a ‘united family’ in olive branch to mother after court ruling

Gina Rinehart’s son has said he wants to reunite his family after a landmark court case left a long-running feud over ownership of mines and companies unresolved.The Western Australian supreme court on Wednesday found Rinehart’s children were at one point set to inherit 49% of her company and said their ownership claims should be determined in separate proceedings.The broader judgment found Rinehart’s company, Hancock Prospecting, retained ownership of the mammoth Hope Downs iron ore project, defeating competing claims from her children and Wright Prospecting.John Hancock, who has been embroiled in a two-decade feud with his mother, offered an olive branch while claiming partial victory in a statement on Wednesday following the ruling.“Rather than continuing disagreements about the validity of Agreements from the 1980s, perceptions of events from decades ago or the pain this conflict has caused all parties over the years, I would much prefer to focus on the positive, and find a fair and reasonable way forward for the whole family,” he said

AA driving schools ordered to refund 80,000 learner drivers over hidden fees

The AA has been fined £4.2m and ordered to make payments to more than 80,000 learner drivers for not showing the full price of lessons at the time of booking, an illegal practice known as “drip pricing”.The UK competition watchdog, which launched an investigation into the practices employed by the AA Driving School and BSM Driving School last year, said the AA-owned businesses must repay more than £760,000 as a result.The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) found that learner drivers were not shown the total price upfront when booking lessons online, which is required under UK consumer law. Instead, the driving schools were introducing a mandatory fee later in the process

José Pizarro’s recipe for nettle (or wild garlic) and goat’s cheese tortilla

When I was growing up in the small village of Talaván in Extremadura, Spain, we never ate nettles. They were wild plants that grew along the edges of the fields, and the sort you tried to avoid: like many children, I learned about them the hard way, brushing against them while playing and getting stung. It was only when I came to the UK that I first saw nettles used in cooking, which surprised me: suddenly, this wild plant had a place in the kitchen. Now, whenever I visit my mum, Isabel, I see them everywhere. It makes me smile to think that at this year’s Chelsea flower show I will be cooking among a world of magnificent plants and gardens

Gone from shop shelves, but not forgotten | Letters

How lucky for Adrian Chiles that he didn’t live in the German Democratic Republic (Rose’s Lime Marmalade? Gone. Dark chocolate Bounty? No more. But what about their heartbroken fans?, 8 April). After reunification, there were street markets selling the last of products from the old days, and there was an exhibition in a national museum – memorably called “They’ve even taken our tomato ketchup” – lamenting the loss of many food products and other features of former times, such as children’s TV programmes.Derek JanesDuns, Scottish Borders Can Adrian Chiles tell me where to find Halls’ chocolate sour lemons? Maybe they stopped being made because they turned your tongue black, but they tasted great

Cornichon shortage leaves British sandwich shops in a pickle

With their sharp flavour and crunch, pickled cucumbers are an essential component of any sandwich worth its salt.But an unexpected shortage of cornichons has caused consternation in sandwich shops across the country as cafes scramble to get their hands on jars of the small green pickles.A favourite sandwich of hungry office workers is the simple jambon beurre. A staple across the Channel, the French sandwich contains ham, a generous amount of butter, and, crucially, a sharp, crunchy cornichon to cut through the fat.Sandwich chain Pret a Manger brought it to popularity in the UK, and a jambon beurre retails for about £4 in its shops

Rukmini Iyer’s quick and easy recipe for chilli eggs with miso beans and spinach | Quick and easy

My go-to cheat ingredient for a dash of heat is White Mausu’s peanut rāyu – it has a gentler flavour profile than, say, Lao Gan Ma crispy chilli in oil, and works perfectly in this dish of creamy, lemon-spiked beans and eggs. I recommend using jarred white beans for the speediest cook time. For an easy, get-ahead breakfast, make and chill the spinach and beans the night before, then reheat the next morning and crack in the eggs when the beans are piping hot.Prep 10 min Cook 20 min Serves 2-32 tbsp neutral oil 2 onions, peeled and roughly sliced2 garlic cloves, peeled and finely grated200g baby spinach, roughly chopped570g jar white haricot or butter beans, drained and rinsed (400g net)2 heaped tsp red miso paste (white will work, too) 150ml single cream Juice of ½ lemonSalt (optional)2 eggs 2-3 tbsp White Mausu peanut rāyu, to tastePut the oil in a large, heavy-based saucepan on a medium heat, then add the onions and stir-fry for five minutes, until just colouring around the edges. Stir in the garlic, turn down the heat to low, then partly cover the pan and cook for five minutes, to soften

The US small town coffee shop that created a viral drink: ‘I still don’t understand how it went so far’

A viral coffee drink created by a little college town coffee shop on the outskirts of Minneapolis is now making its way around the world after its inventors decided to give the recipe away for free.After Little Joy Coffee’s raspberry danish latte, a spring seasonal drink, went viral in March, the shop’s owners decided to encourage coffee shops to rip off the recipe directly and add it to their menus.Posting both a home recipe and step-by-step instructions for coffee shops, they asked shops if they wanted to be added to a map of places that will serve the raspberry danish latte. Hundreds of shops quickly signed up. A map of the shops shows a presence on every continent except Antarctica, with pins in dozens of countries

How to make Southern fried chicken – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass

Let’s be honest, fried chicken is one of those things that’s almost always good, but making it yourself has the benefit of allowing you to be sure of the provenance of the meat. Where fast-food restaurants tend to rely on pressure fryers for a juicy result, at home I brine the meat first using buttermilk – its slight acidity will also have a tenderising effect. Double win.Prep 5 min Marinate 4 hr+Cook 40 min Serves 2-3300ml buttermilk (see step 1)2¼ tsp salt 6 pieces of chicken of your choice – I like a mixture of drumsticks and thighs110g plain flour 40g cornflour, or rice or potato flour (see step 4)½ tsp freshly ground black pepper ½ tsp smoked paprika ¼ tsp MSG (optional)Neutral oil (vegetable, sunflower, groundnut or lard), for fryingButtermilk is the ideal consistency for this, but if you can’t get hold of any, instead whisk a little water into natural yoghurt to make it pourable. Put 275ml in a container large enough to hold all the meat, then stir in two teaspoons of salt – this improves the chicken’s ability to hold on to moisture, giving a juicier texture

Simpson’s-in-the-Strand, London WC2: ‘A rollicking list of cosy British joys’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants

The British may not have the most sophisticated palates, but we are adorable in our culinary urgesAs we sit awaiting the beef rib trolley in the Grand Divan dining room at the whoppingly sized Simpson’s-in-the-Strand, we fizz with ideas of how to describe its wildly unfettered quaintness. “It’s all a bit Hogwarts, isn’t it?” I say to my friend Hugh.He’s been four times already, but then, Simpson’s is that kind of place: a handy-as-heck, posh canteen a short stroll from Covent Garden. There’s a twinkly, ye olde cocktail bar upstairs as well as Romano’s with its more European-style menu. But, for now, let’s concentrate on the Grand Divan

Benjamina Ebuehi’s sweet and salty chocolate chip cookies recipe | The sweet spot

Everyone has different ideas on what makes the perfect chocolate chip cookie, with everything from thickness and chewiness to the amount of chocolate up for debate. In my opinion, no cookie is worth eating if it’s not well salted; without it, everything feels a little off balance and flat. My not-so-secret way of salting cookies is to use a bit of miso. Not so much that it becomes a miso cookie, but just enough to bring a slightly savoury, umami vibe that makes the cookies a bit more complex-tasting and not sickly sweet.Prep 5 min Cook 30 min Chill 3 hr+ Makes 12100g unsalted butter, softened 110g dark brown sugar 110g caster sugar 35g white miso paste 1 large egg 220g plain flour ½ tsp baking powder ½ tsp bicarbonate of soda 100g milk chocolate, roughly chopped100g dark chocolate, roughly choppedPut the butter and both sugars in a large bowl and beat for two to three minutes until creamy, scraping down the sides of the bowl often

Gentleman’s Relish is toast after its maker axes the pungent anchovy spread

Fans of traditional British cuisine were heartbroken by news that Gentleman’s Relish was being discontinued by its manufacturer.But Jeremy King, who last month reopened Simpson’s in the Strand, has instructed his chef to create a version of the pungent anchovy-based condiment almost identical to the real thing for the 198-year-old London restaurant.King, who has run famed establishments including the Ivy, the Wolseley and Le Caprice, told the Guardian: “We actually make our own, due to the difficulty in obtaining, so are able to continue to serve it.”Simpson’s, which offers traditional fare including spotted dick and roast beef carved on a silver trolley, serves the relish on toast for £6.50

Cream sherry: a forgotten taste that’s worth rediscovering

By the time I knew her, my granny was in her whisky and water era, but my dad clearly remembers a bottle of Harveys Bristol Cream in the drinks cupboard, ready to pour for friends after church in the 1970s. This is the enduring image of cream sherry, one that it has struggled to shake off. While other sherries – bone-dry fino and manzanilla (made by ageing palomino grapes under a yeast layer called flor), oxidative amontillado or oloroso, and sweet, single varietals such as pedro ximénez (PX) – have acquired new cachet among younger drinkers, not least because they’re relatively affordable, cream is the emblematic Little English tipple of a bygone time.The Guardian’s journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link

From soups and greens to roots, how to survive the ‘hungry gap’

Spring may have firmly sprung – I write this with a view of vivid yellow forsythia blossom in next door’s garden, and the melodious warble of full-throated birdsong – but though the greenery may be flourishing in our gardens, it’s a different story at the farmers’ market. Despite a few spindly spears of asparagus and miniature jersey royals making an appearance on our Easter tables last weekend, the new season of British produce doesn’t kick off in earnest for another few weeks yet. That means we’re now heading into the so-called “hungry gap”, an annual quirk of our relatively northern latitude, when temperatures are too high for much winter veg such as kale and brassicas, but too low for the more delicate likes of peas and broad beans to ripen – let alone high-summer treats such as berries, squash and stone fruit.Happily, many hardy winter crops store well, and are versatile enough to shake off their heavy winter coat of cream and butter in favour of a lighter treatment. The late Skye Gyngell gifted us a carrot, celery, farro and borlotti bean soup, Nigel Slater has an early spring laksa with purple sprouting broccoli (and some spinach, which I suspect you could use frozen), and Nicholas Balfe offers a ceviche with celeriac and a baked beetroot dish (pictured top) – both of which look just the thing to wake up your taste buds

Rachel Roddy’s recipe for hazelnut and chocolate cake | A kitchen in Rome

Having been kept waiting for three hours, Dick Dewy leaves Miss Fancy Day snipping and sewing her blue dress. The plan is that he will return for her a quarter of an hour later, however, Dick convinces himself that he has been scandalously trifled with by Fancy and decides that, to punish her, he will not return. Instead, he leaps over the gate, pushes up the lane for two miles, takes a winding path called Snail-Creep, and crawls through the opening to the hazel grove in Grey’s Wood.Getting a class of 15-year-olds to relay/read the opening of chapter four of Under the Greenwood Tree, which is memorably entitled “Going Nutting”, is an extremely effective way to engage them with the majesty of Thomas Hardy. And the title is nothing compared to the line (as Dick vanished among the bushes): “Never man nutted as Dick nutted that afternoon