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Reform and Plaid Cymru likely to benefit from polarisation of Welsh politics

about 5 hours ago
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On a sunny but cold evening in a shopping centre car park on the outskirts of Merthyr Tydfil, Reform UK supporters enjoyed free pizza and loud music as they waited for what the party leader, Nigel Farage, said was his last big speech before Thursday’s Welsh Senedd, Scottish parliament and English local elections.Reform could win the most seats under Wales’s new more proportional voting system but it is unlikely to be able to form a government, as other parties have ruled out going into coalition with it.Yet Farage’s outfit is the first rightwing party with a shot at winning in Wales since the 1850s.The surge in support for a party that got 1% of the vote in the last Senedd election is impossible to ignore.“A coalition of losers blocking the biggest party [Reform] will backfire, if that’s what happens,” the party’s Welsh leader, Dan Thomas, told the Guardian.

“I think that the people of Wales will be very determined next time around to make sure that the biggest party wins.”After more than 100 years of dominance in Wales, support for the Labour party has collapsed, with former voters seemingly going to Plaid Cymru or, in lesser numbers, to Reform – opposite ends of the political spectrum.The two parties have been neck and neck throughout the campaign.Laura McAllister, a professor of public policy at Cardiff University, said the Welsh nationalists and Farage’s party were in a similar position.“The definition of ‘winning’ is always contestable in PR elections.

Often the largest party emerges with similar proportions of votes and seats to other parties, so of course Reform are going to exploit that, quite understandably, if that’s what happens.“That said, they’ve always known their route to power or government is more constrained than Plaid Cymru, because there’s more parties on the left in the Senedd, and the growth in the Reform vote has cannibalised the Conservative vote.”At the same time as Thomas and Farage were speaking on Tuesday night, the final YouGov poll before the Senedd vote put Plaid Cymru slightly ahead, on 33% to 29%.The poll underscored the polarisation among Welsh voters: it found “stop Reform” was the single biggest factor influencing respondents’ votes, at 14%.The second highest was immigration, at 10%.

Immigration policy is not devolved to the Welsh government, and the country has one of the lowest ratios of asylum seekers relative to population size out of any UK region or nation, but the issue still made up a major portion of Farage’s Merthyr Tydfil speech.The party has been accused by other politicians of stoking fear and division around immigration.On Tuesday, however, Farage’s comments were met with cheers and applause.Thomas said: “Whether we like it or not, [immigration] is a top three concern of Welsh voters, and there needs to be a party that reflects that.Now, I accept that the Welsh government has no powers over immigration, but it does come up on the doorstep, it comes up in debates.

”Barrie Lewis, 74, had travelled from Swansea to Brecon for a Reform event on Tuesday morning before following Farage to the evening rally in Merthyr.“I’ve had enough of Labour and Plaid Cymru; they’ve run Wales into the ground,” he said.“They’ll probably form a coalition again to keep [Reform] out.But we’re a new party, and we’re still doing really well, and Dan will be there in the Senedd to hold them accountable.”The army veteran said the Welsh election was also a vote about Keir Starmer.

“He’s never here, he’s always abroad, he doesn’t know or care what people at home think,” he said.On Wednesday, Eluned Morgan, the Welsh Labour first minister, appeared to acknowledge that Starmer’s unpopularity could contribute to her party losing control of the Senedd.Some polls predict Labour, which has ruled Wales since devolution began in 1999, could end up on a single-digit number of seats and that Morgan will lose her seat.“I’m certainly hoping that [Plaid Cymru and Reform UK] won’t [take control],” she told the Telegraph.“But there is a danger that that could happen, and I don’t want to see that happening.

I do hope people will reflect on what this election is really about – and it isn’t a time, I think, to pick a fight with Starmer,There’s a general election, that’s the time to do that,”
societySee all
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Prosecutors to ‘fast-track’ hate crime cases in England and Wales after spate of attacks

Prosecutors in England and Wales have been told to “fast-track” hate crime prosecutions after a spate of antisemitic attacks that the prime minister on Tuesday called a “crisis for all of us”.Stephen Parkinson, the director of public prosecutions, issued guidance to his staff on Tuesday telling them to bring forward prosecutions against any sort of hate crime as quickly as they could, rather than waiting until they had gathered all possible evidence.Keir Starmer urged groups including universities, arts groups and charities to do more to tackle antisemitism during a summit in Downing Street.As well as imposing new reporting requirements on universities and the Arts Council, the prime minister threatened “consequences” against Iran if it was found to have been behind last week’s stabbing in Golders Green, north London.Parkinson said in a statement on Tuesday: “The acts of extreme violence and criminal damage that we have seen against the Jewish community in recent months have been deplorable

about 23 hours ago
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Dame Shirley Porter obituary

There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time.Porter, who has died aged 95, was pursued by the district auditor from her power base at Westminster city council, where she was leader for eight years, 1983-91, and eventually found to have acted illegally in selling council houses with the aim of increasing Conservative votes, in what became known as the “homes for votes” scandal

1 day ago
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Slow Alzheimer’s diagnoses ‘mean UK patients missing out on experimental treatments’

People with Alzheimer’s disease are missing out on experimental treatments because they are not diagnosed early or accurately enough to be enrolled in clinical trials, a UK charity has said.Trials of Alzheimer’s drugs reached a record high this year, according to data published on Tuesday, but Alzheimer’s Research UK said too few UK patients were taking part because their diagnoses were delayed or were not specific enough.The warning suggests patients are being left behind as research gathers momentum and branches out to tackle the condition on multiple fronts, a strategy that scientists consider to be crucial for halting the disease.Dr Sheona Scales, the director of research at Alzheimer’s Research UK, said the recent surge in clinical trials was driving demand for participants, but without a large and diverse range of patients to match to trials the UK risked missing out. “People won’t have access to the next generation of Alzheimer’s treatments,” she said

1 day ago
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Man produces sperm from testicular tissue frozen as a child in breakthrough trial

In a groundbreaking fertility trial, a man whose testicular tissue was frozen before he underwent chemotherapy as a child to be re-transplanted 16 years later has been able to produce sperm.It is the first time a transplant of cryopreserved prepubertal testicular tissue has been demonstrated to restore sperm production in an adult patient. The 27-year-old man had the sample frozen when he was 10, before undergoing potent chemotherapy as part of treatment for sickle cell disease.“This is a huge finding,” said Prof Ellen Goossens, of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, who led the trial, in close collaboration with Brussels IVF at University Hospital Brussel. “Many more people will have hope that they can have biological children

2 days ago
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Coalition accused of secretly giving big tobacco lobbyists private platform in parliament

Anti-smoking campaigners have accused the Coalition of secretly giving tobacco giants access to a parliamentary inquiry, a move they say undermines more than 15 years of precedent to protect public health.On Monday, representatives from tobacco company Philip Morris appeared before a Senate committee considering the illegal tobacco trade in Australia.Chaired by South Australian Liberal senator Leah Blyth, the committee also heard from anti-smoking campaigners, health groups and Australian Border Force, but Labor, the Greens and the Australian Council on Smoking and Health raised concerns that executives from cigarette manufacturers were allowed to give evidence in a closed session in Canberra.The committee published a full program for Monday’s hearings, but did not list evidence from Philip Morris or any other “in camera” – or private – session.Labor senator Jana Stewart and Greens senator Jordon Steele-John objected to the in-camera evidence by representatives of Philip Morris on Monday afternoon

2 days ago
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London schools trialling VR to relieve pupils’ stress

Schools have begun deploying virtual reality to help pupils cope with stress caused by impending exams, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or difficult home lives.All 15 secondary schools in the London borough of Sutton are using VR headsets made by tech firm Phase Space in a pilot in conjunction with the local NHS mental health trust.Pupils access the seven-minute-long Phase Space VR programme either in a prearranged slot or when they need to leave a lesson because they have become beset by anxiety.Young people find that immersing themselves in VR, even for such a short period of time, helps them calm down, rebuild their confidence and feel ready to resume their studies. Phase Space has been designed to help “overwhelmed and anxious students”, said Zillah Watson, a co-creator of the programme, who is a former head of VR at the BBC

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