Sarwar gambles on break with Starmer as Labour support slumps
“People look at Holyrood and think: ‘Lets give them all a bloody nose’,” says Alex, a betting shop manager.Speaking in a focus group of people who voted Labour at the 2024 general election, Alex captured the downbeat mood of a cohort bitterly disappointed with the Labour government’s early performance, frustrated by the record of the Scottish National party and wearied by what they described as “scandal after scandal” polluting public life.Organised by the public opinion researchers More in Common, the discussion took place last week in Glasgow’s southside, where the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, grew up and still lives with his family.With two months to go until the Scottish parliament elections, these are the voters Sarwar believes he can re-energise.Their dissatisfaction with Westminster lay behind his calculated decision a fortnight ago to call for Keir Starmer to stand aside, as polls consistently show Scottish Labour, a once buoyant party, trailing in third place behind John Swinney’s SNP and Reform UK.
A YouGov survey last month put Scottish Labour on 15%, behind Reform at 20% and the SNP at 34%,Sarwar’s shock disavowal of the prime minister – who he is known to consider a close friend – was initially framed as part of internal UK Labour plotting,But party insiders hope he may yet reap the benefits of saying out loud what many Scots have been thinking,Senior Labour MSPs preparing for the party’s one-day conference in Paisley this Friday argue that the move was strategically astute, sharpening the focus on who should govern Scotland,Even some who were initially worried about the gambit now view it as sure-footed.
One said Sarwar’s attack on Starmer did two things,First, Labour faces the very clear risk that the SNP, and angry voters, will turn May’s contest into a referendum on Starmer and his government’s repeated mistakes and missteps,By echoing elements of that criticism, Sarwar aimed to neutralise it,Second, they claim it allows Sarwar to focus on the competence and track record of the SNP in government and frame the election as a straight choice over Scotland’s leadership: Swinney or Sarwar,Public attitude surveys consistently show growing and widespread dissatisfaction with the SNP’s record in government.
Sarwar maintains he is the only credible alternative to Swinney – a message he repeats across media appearances, speeches and on social media.In the focus group, some participants responded positively to Sarwar’s leadership credentials.But his decision to deal Starmer a public blow was more divisive.While Labour strategists hope voters will see the move as candid and decisive, these southside voters were ambivalent; several described it as “backstabbing” and suggested he had been manipulated into testing support for the prime minister.SNP strategists, meanwhile, are concerned that, despite all the turmoil and resignations in Westminster, the party’s ratings remain stuck in the 30s.
Recent polling suggests the SNP will win the election but with its lowest vote share since 2007, having secured more than 45% at every Holyrood contest since 2011,Reform UK’s Scottish campaign team also reports the “scunner factor” on the doorstep, though not all disillusioned voters are turning their way,They argue that the party is attracting voters who are less interested in Westminster dramas than in what they see as Holyrood’s policy failures,There has been speculation about the lack of senior UK Labour figures at Friday’s conference, which was planned before the date the Denton and Gorton byelection was confirmed,Sources say, however, that the slimmed-down gathering was always intended to galvanise activists and centre squarely on Sarwar’s leadership.
In such a volatile climate, some Labour activists draw comfort from the high number of 2024 Labour supporters who now describe themselves as undecided, as opposed to vehemently aligned with another party, a sentiment reflected in the focus group,As one participant said: “No one is popular with voters right now,”
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