Time to wrap up…Oil prices have jumped back above $100 a barrel and global stocks fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the strait of Hormuz.The US president announced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships that have paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.US Central Command said it would start blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas from 3pm UK time, in effect seizing control of maritime traffic in the strait of Hormuz.Trump said on Monday afternoon that ships coming near the blockade would be “eliminated”, warning Iran not to send its “fast attack ships”:double quotation markWarning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea.It is quick and brutal.

P.S.98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S.

by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED!Oil and gas prices rose sharply again, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in energy prices, and crude ended the week below the psychologically important $100 a barrel threshold.Brent crude rose 6.9% to $$101.74 a barrel on Monday, while US crude was up 7.2% at $103.

55 a barrel,Gas prices also increased, with the British wholesale gas contract for May soaring by almost 12% earlier and later up 7,25% at 117,57p per therm,More here:And Goldman Sachs has beaten expectations with its first-quarter results, reporting a rises in profits and higher-than-expected investment banking revenue.

After a day dominated by Iran worries, London’s stock market has closed slightly lower.The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip share has ended the day down 17.5 points, or -0.17%, at 10,582 points.Utility companies led the fallers, perhaps a sign that investors are losing their appetite for ‘defensive stocks’ that might protect them from a market wobble.

Oil companies posted some gains, with BP up 0,9% and Shell gaining 1,5%,The war in Iran has pushed prices of pistachios nuts to an eight-year high, Bloomberg has reported,Iran is the world’s second-largest producer of pistachios, they say, and the conflict is restricting supplies.

Bloomberg point out that pistachio consumption has surged globally since pistachio-filled “Dubai chocolate” bars went viral on TikTok and Instagram in 2023,Major food brands like Häagen-Daz and Táche have added the nut to ice cream and plant-based milk ranges, while Starbucks has popularized pistachio-flavored coffee,This has pushed pistachio prices to $4,57 a pound in March, the highest since May 2018,The markets remain rather febrile today, and headline-driven.

We’ve just seen an example – oil briefly fell below $100 a barrel, following a news flash that “IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S.CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR”.That claim was attributed to the New York Post – and it appears to come from the Post’s foreign policy reporter Caitlin Doornbos.However, that’s not exaactly what she wrote.

Actually, Doornbos posted on X:double quotation markIranian officials are still considering the US proposal to end the war, centered around giving up uranium enrichment.One thing affecting why Iran couldn’t make a deal while US was in Islamabad: while Vance called Trump 6+ times, Iranians could not call their final decision-maker back in Tehran due to security risks — and likely would have had to return home to discuss an agreement in person, a Pakistani analyst told me.And as she posts in a second message (after the markets got excited), the uranium line isn’t new!double quotation markThis took off unnecessarily, and now I have a responsibility to clarify.All I meant was: 1) The proposal centered on Iran giving up its nuclear program -- that we knew from Vice President JD Vance on Sunday.2) It’s still a possibility that Iran could accept that point.

None of this is new (which is why I haven’t published anything on it.)Brent crude has now inched back to $101 a barrel, as traders calm down.Donald Trump has warned Iran not to try to breach the new US blockade.Posting on Truth Social, he says:double quotation markIran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated - 158 ships.What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat.

Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea.It is quick and brutal.P.S.98.

2% of Drugs coming into the U.S.by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED!Thank you for your attention to this matter.President DJTGoldman boss David Solomon has played down concerns over Anthropic’s Mythos AI model, despite being part of a group of banking chiefs summoned to the US Treasury in Washington last week to discuss potential cyber risks and threats to financial stability.He told analysts on an earnings call that the bank was “hyperaware of the enhanced capabilities of these models” and was working with both the US government and tech firms to assess them.

However, the CEO said it was “part of our ongoing capabilities that we have been investing in and are accelerating our investment in,” adding:double quotation mark“We’re aware of Mythos and its capabilities.We have the model, we’re working closely with Anthropic, and all of our security vendors, to kind of harness frontier capabilities wherever it’s possible.And this will continue to be an important focus.But it’s not new…technology evolves, we have to continue to upgrade for cyber risk and make sure we’re at the forefront of that.”Goldman Sachs’ CEO David Solomon also defended the bank’s involvement in the private credit market, saying that the bank saw an rise in investment at a time when rivals have suffered a surge in withdrawal requests from jittery clients.

He suggested part of the surge in withdrawal requests at some rivals - which have forced some private credit lenders like Blue Owl to cap redemptions - was primarily driven by retail investors (we’re talking high net worth clients here) rather than institutional investors who were holding their ground.Solomon told analysts that institutional investors - banks, insurance companies, and pension funds - made up around 40% of the new investment in Goldman’s private credit funds during the first quarter (which led to a 7% net increase in overall investment during the three months to March).double quotation mark“I know the media headlines have driven an enormous amount of negative sentiment around private credit.You know, my own view is it’s important to really distinguish between different markets and really try to put it all in perspective.”“There obviously are high redemptions in certain pure managed funds.

These peer managed funds have been concentrated in retail outflows as opposed to institutional outflows,And one of the things that we’re seeing that’s just interesting, that’s quite constructive for our business, is that spreads are becoming more lender friendly”He added:double quotation mark“Our 30 year track record of performance and private credit is characterised by rigorous underwriting, selective deployment, and disciplined portfolio construction”Goldman Sachs’ CEO David Solomon has cheered the bank’s Q1 earnings, saying “elevated uncertainty” caused by the Iran war, AI jitters and private credit fears led to a surge in trading and demand for its investment banking services,Solomon told analysts that the environment had changed significantly since the turn of the new year:double quotation mark“2026 began with a degree of optimism,Markets hit record highs and confidence continued to build, with most clients focused on growth, strategic activity, and capital deployment,As we’ve said, things were only moving a straight line, and as the quarter progressed, the macro environment started to weigh on sentiment.

“Volatility increased meaningfully amid concerns around AI driven disruption in sectors like software.Heightened uncertainty in parts of private credit, and the conflict in the Middle East.”With Wall Street opening in the red, Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International says:double quotation mark“A weariness is setting in as investors increasingly choose to wait and see while tensions in the Gulf ebb and flow.With sentiment having swung back and forth since the beginning of March, but markets remaining at or slightly above where they started the year, no-one is willing to take big bets until it is clearer where the US-Israel-Iran conflict is heading.“Meanwhile, companies and households are getting on with their lives, acclimatising to what looks like a persistently higher oil price, rising inflation and higher for longer interest rates.

This week, the US reporting round gets underway once more, with first quarter results shining a light on how geo-politics is showing up at the coalface of business and the broader economy,The New York stock market has begun the new week with losses,Wall Street’s main indexes have opened lower, after last weekend’s talks between the US and Iran failed to deliver a deal to end the war,With optimism of an early end to the conflict fading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 368 points, or 0,77%, to 47,548 in early trading.

The broader S&P 500 index is down 0,3%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has lost 0,35%Opec, the oil cartel, has predicted that demand for crude will drop in the second quarter of this year, but then rebound,Opec has lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day,However, for 2026 as a whole, global oil demand is still forecast to grow by a healthy 1.

4 million barrels per day – unchanged on last month’s forecast - driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia.Opec says:double quotation markThe slight transitory weakness in oil demand growth in 2Q26, given the ongoing developments in the Middle East, is expected to be compensated for in 3Q26 and 4Q26.Oil is still bobbing above $100 a barrel, as the 3pm BST deadline for the US’s blockade of the strait of Hormuz approaches.Brent crude is 7.5% higher today at $102.

31 a barrel.While there is disappointment that the US-Iran talks broke up last weekend, there is also some optimism that the ceasefire announced last week is holding.Paul Diggle, chief economist, at Aberdeen, says:double quotation markFor all that it is in risk-off mode this morning, the market is arguably still taking a “glass half full” interpretation of the outlook.Perhaps a single round of talks should never have been expected to yield immediate results.The progress was the in-person talks happening at all.

The US blockade may bring not just economic pressure on Iran, but also diplomatic pressure from China (the destination of a large share of Gulf energy exports, including what had still been flowing from Iran).China apparently played an important part in pressuring Iran to the negotiations last week.The ceasefire itself is still holding for now, although it’s obviously extremely fragile.UK transport and travel union TSSA is calling on the government to take immediate action to help the public with the jump in the cost of living due to the Iran war.This includes making public transport free at the point of use for the next year.

TSSA general secretary Maryam Eslamdoust explains:double quotation mark“Yet again Donald Trump’s recklessness over Iran is having an effect of world oil prices which will in turn hit our communities here at home really hard.“We are facing into a major economic crisis of Washington’s making at a time in which many people are already really struggling with the cost of living.“Not only should our government be carrying out the work of diplomacy to help find a solution to the conflict but it’s vital that Ministers act without delay to take serious measures to help people here at home.“Making public transport free at the point of use for the next twelve months would provide people with the assistance they need and also act as a huge economic stimulus.“Not only that, but the Prime Minister should also convene regular COBRA meetings examining the full range of measures which can help people with their bills and consider setting up a national Cost of Living Taskforce.

”Although Goldman Sachs has beaten profit forecasts, its share are down 4.5% in pre-market trading.Traders could be concerned that Goldman’s revenues from Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) fell by 10% in the first quarter.Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at investing and trading platform IG, says today’s results have failed to “pique investors’ attention”double quotation mark“Goldman Sachs has delivered a solid set of numbers, but in this environment ‘solid’ isn’t quite enough to keep investors interested.The strength in equities trading and dealmaking shows that the machine is still firing on all cylinders, yet the drop in FICC revenues is a reminder that this is not a one-way street, especially with markets being buffeted by the Iran war.

After such a strong run in the share price, investors were clearly looking for something exceptional, not just good.The bigger issue is that Goldman’s results feel like a snapshot of a world that may already be fading.With oil prices surging, inflation fears building and recession risks creeping back in, the outlook for dealmaking and capital markets activity becomes far less certain.In that context, today’s numbers risk being seen as close to peak earnings, and it’s little surprise that investors have opted to take some money off the table.”The US Central Command have told seafarers that the US military will enforce a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, applied to all vessel traffic regardless of flag