One shock could spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK, according to dozens of the country’s top food experts, because chronic issues have left the food system a “tinderbox”.The group first identified a series of issues that are making access to food vulnerable in the UK, including the climate crisis, low incomes, poor farming policy and fragile just-in-time supply chains.These have left the UK dangerously exposed, the researchers said.They then analysed the shocks that could tip this vulnerable system into a full-blown food crisis, with major extreme weather events, cyber-attacks or international conflicts ranked top.These shocks would hit supply chains and push up food prices, which could lead to increased social tension and hidden market sales of unsafe food and, in the worst-case scenario, civil unrest or riots.

A large majority of the experts – 80% – said large-scale violence caused by a food crisis was possible in the next 50 years, with 40% saying it could occur within the next decade, according to a related analysis published in 2023.The scenario considered was more than 30,000 people suffering violent injury over the course of a year owing to food protests or riots.The researchers said the shocks they considered most risky had already happened at some scale and served as wakeup calls.Both the Co-operative and Marks & Spencer supermarkets were hit by cyber-attacks in 2025 and recent overseas droughts and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have increased food costs.Many UK families are already experiencing food insecurity, with one in seven affected in 2025, according to the Food Foundation.

Addressing the systemic vulnerabilities to a food crisis was urgent, the researchers said, including more coordinated action by government and businesses and a wider and more resilient range of food produced and eaten in the UK.The nation currently imports about 35% of its food.“The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security,” said Prof Sarah Bridle, at the University of York, who led the analysis.“While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.

”Prof Aled Jones, at Anglia Ruskin University and part of the group, said: “The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences.Policymakers must adopt a long-term perspective to planning.”A UK government spokesperson said: “Food security is national security, and our high degree of food security is built on both strong domestic production and imports through stable trade routes.This government is investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields or create climate-resilient crops, streamlining regulation, and helping farmers produce food for the nation.”Concerns about the impact of food crises on security exist worldwide.

“Fragile food systems pose an underestimated risk to global stability,” said Álvaro Lario, the president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, last week.The new UK analysis, published in the journal Sustainability, was produced by consulting more than 30 food system experts from academia, government and industry.They “highlighted the many existing chronic issues creating a tinderbox for … a food crisis in the UK”.They then selected the three most dangerous shocks: extreme weather, cyber-attack and war.“Any combination of these could lead to a UK food availability and/or price shock that could result in widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food, leading to violence,” the analysis concluded.

“Crime and violence to obtain food could [give] life to food riots.”Among the many factors considered were that much of global food production is concentrated in large “breadbasket” countries, such as the US, Brazil and Russia and that pinch-points in supply chains exist, such as the Suez canal.“This centralisation has resulted in a very vulnerable system,” the researchers said.“The digitisation of the food system also means it is more vulnerable to cybersecurity threats.”The analysis also emphasised the importance of social factors: “A UK food system crisis could arise from hunger and resulting feelings of despair when coupled with a lack of trust in government.

”Dominic Watters, a researcher with lived experience of food poverty and part of the study group, said: “Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone; they come from a lack of dignity, voice, and care.This research highlights how the stigma of food insecurity is already creating cracks in our society.[It is] important to co-design responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.” The study said a national forum on preparedness and planning that included marginalised voices was needed.Other recommended measures to reduce the risk of a food crisis included more regenerative agriculture to reduce risk of crop failure and cash transfers to the poorest people in an emergency.