Outsiders steal headlines at Ascot and the shocks are coming more often

A picture


Pandemic-era change to system for compiling starting prices looks to be costing those who bet on favouritesCalandagan’s impressive defeat of Ombudsman in the Champion Stakes at Ascot may well turn out to have been the best race anywhere on the planet this year when the final ratings are totted up in January, but it was not the reason why Champions Day made a brief but welcome appearance on the BBC’s main evening news bulletin on Saturday evening.Instead, it was the 200-1 success of Powerful Glory in the Champions Sprint earlier on the card which caught the sports editor’s eye, and understandably so.In the same way that, even now, Leicester’s Premier League title success in 2015-16 is rarely mentioned without reference to the 5,000-1 on offer at the start of the season, it was a case of a starting price being worth a thousand words.The 100-1 success of Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes an hour later only added to the sense that we must all have been looking at the form book upside down.Two winners at a three-figure starting price on the same card? Preposterous.

Unthinkable,And … perhaps even unprecedented?As it turns out, however – and if you also leave aside the fact that both races were Group Ones – you need only go back as far as Lingfield’s meeting on 19 November 2024 to turn up something similar,On an otherwise entirely forgettable all-weather card, Epsom Faithfull (100-1) and Ashford Hill (125-1) both came home in front,At a jumps meeting at the same track in November 2023, meanwhile, Theyseekhimthere (125-1) and Ask Her Out (150-1) were among the winners,In fact, the Champions Day card on Saturday was the fourth occasion since 4 January 2023 – when there were 125-1 and 100-1 winners at Newcastle – that there had been two winners at 100-1 or bigger on the same card in Britain.

In the 15 years prior to that Newcastle meeting, however – a total of around 22,000 fixtures – it did not happen once,When dealing with extremely unusual events, it is essential to bear in mind Nassim Taleb’s warnings about how easy it is to be fooled by randomness, and the fact that even exceptionally unlikely and unrelated outcomes can still occur in clusters,Over a 20-year period when the British fixture list has been relatively stable at between 1,300 and 1,500 meetings per year, however, it is still hard to escape from the conclusion that winners at 100-1 or bigger are, albeit slightly, a more common occurrence now than was the case a decade ago,In the five years between 2015 and 2019, for instance – that is, the five years before the Covid pandemic – runners with a starting price of 100-1 or bigger won an average of 5,5 races per year, with a mean strike rate of 0.

164%,From 2020 to 2024, it was 20 races per year, and a strike rate of 0,242%,Everyone noticed the shock winner at Ascot on Saturday, but a jump in the number of 100-1+ upsets that actually dates back to 2020 has largely passed people by,These are still, of course, tiny numbers in the context of a racing schedule with around 10,000 races annually.

The average punter, after all, operates at the other end of the market, and will be sufficiently bruised by unexpected results from one week to the next to take an extra eight or 10 complete “skinners” for the bookies on the chin,Perth 1,15 Centurion’s Sister 1,50 Keep Tabs On You 2,25 Nathan Wells 3.

00 Tripoli Flyer 3.35 Heaven Smart 4.10 Kap Boy 4.40 Mountain Molly 5.15 Artic MannExeter 1.

40 Oakley 2,15 Guillaume 2,50 Ballintubber Boy 3,25 Voodoo Angel 4,00 Cinnodin 4.

30 Hillsin 5.05 Maxios AureliusYarmouth 2.00 Overbudget 2.35 Fractional 3.10 Pietro 3.

45 Fletcher’s Flight (nb) 4,20 Likealot 4,55 Hinchinbrooke 5,30 State Of MadnessNewcastle 4,50 Maxi King 5.

25 Moonlight Warrior 6.00 Light The Night Up 6.30 Masterclass 7.00 Terrapin (nap) 7.30 Rambuso Creek 8.

00 Bellagio Man 8,30 Carolus Magnus That does not mean that a slight uptick in shock results is not without some relevance, particularly in the retail (high-street betting shop) market where a surprising number of bets are still settled at starting price,What happened in 2020? Covid happened, of course, and that led to an important change to the system for compiling starting prices,Until the pandemic forced racing behind closed doors, the starting prices had always been compiled using a survey of the price about each runner on the on-course bookies’ boards shortly before the off,With no racegoers and no on-course bookies, the system switched to a survey of off-course prices instead.

There were on-track bookies who warned at the time that this switch could lead to the starting prices of fancied runners – the ones that punters are backing – being “shaved”, with any increase in the overall profit margin in the book being obscured by bigger prices about outsiders.Horses that might have been 50-1 in 2019, in other words, are now going off at 100-1 or 150-1, while 6-5 favourites are returned at 11-10.Their prediction, it seems, has come to pass.Five years on from the switch to “industry” starting prices, the rolling five-year average return from backing favourites has jumped from -6.6% in 2019 to -8.

8% in 2025,Being beaten by a 100-1 shot is one thing, but starting price punters are also paying a price on the day-to-day favourites,
recentSee all
A picture

Amazon says Web Services are recovering after outage hits millions of users – as it happened

AWS has issued another update, saying that is continues to “observe recovery across all AWS services.”It added that it is succeeding across multiple “Availability Zones in the US-EAST-1 Regions.”AWS went on to say: “For Lambda, customers may face intermittent function errors for functions making network requests to other services or systems as we work to address residual network connectivity issues. To recover Lambda’s invocation errors, we slowed down the rate of SQS polling via Lambda Event Source Mappings. We are now increasing the rate of SQS polling as we experience more successful invocations and reduced function errors

A picture

Labour’s clean energy plan needs a revamp: get real on costs and ignore the artificial deadline | Nils Pratley

“I know my job is to get bills down by £300,” said Ed Miliband, the energy security secretary, in his BBC interview at the weekend, acknowledging that the government is on the hook for its pre-election promise to reduce energy bills by 2030.The problem, though, is that the bill-cutting task also seems to be falling by default to Rachel Reeves, the chancellor. It is beginning to look as if the only sure way to make energy bills fall by £300 by 2030 is to shuffle a chunk of the expense into general taxation. Miliband hinted the 5% VAT charge on bills could be removed in next month’s budget, which would cost the government £2.5bn

A picture

Amazon Web Services outage shows internet users ‘at mercy’ of too few providers, experts say

Experts have warned of the perils of relying on a small number of companies for operating the global internet after a glitch at Amazon’s cloud computing service brought down apps and websites around the world.The affected platforms included Snapchat, Roblox, Signal and Duolingo as well as a host of Amazon-owned operations including its main retail site and the Ring doorbell company.More than 2,000 companies worldwide have been affected, according to Downdetector, a site that monitors internet outages, with 8.1m reports of problems from users including 1.9m reports in the US, 1m in the UK and 418,000 in Australia

A picture

‘Every kind of creative discipline is in danger’: Lincoln Lawyer author on the dangers of AI

He is one of the most prolific writers in publishing, averaging more than a novel a year. But even Michael Connelly, the author of the bestselling Lincoln Lawyer series, feared he might fall behind when writing about AI.Connelly’s eighth novel in the series, to be released on Tuesday, centres on a lawsuit against an AI company whose chatbot told a 16-year-old boy that it was OK for him to kill his ex-girlfriend for being unfaithful.But as he was writing, he witnessed the technology altering the way the world worked so rapidly that he feared his plot might become out of date.“You don’t have to lick your finger and hold it up to the wind to know that AI is a massive change that’s coming to science, culture, medicine, everything,” he said

A picture

Outsiders steal headlines at Ascot and the shocks are coming more often

Pandemic-era change to system for compiling starting prices looks to be costing those who bet on favouritesCalandagan’s impressive defeat of Ombudsman in the Champion Stakes at Ascot may well turn out to have been the best race anywhere on the planet this year when the final ratings are totted up in January, but it was not the reason why Champions Day made a brief but welcome appearance on the BBC’s main evening news bulletin on Saturday evening.Instead, it was the 200-1 success of Powerful Glory in the Champions Sprint earlier on the card which caught the sports editor’s eye, and understandably so. In the same way that, even now, Leicester’s Premier League title success in 2015-16 is rarely mentioned without reference to the 5,000-1 on offer at the start of the season, it was a case of a starting price being worth a thousand words.The 100-1 success of Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes an hour later only added to the sense that we must all have been looking at the form book upside down. Two winners at a three-figure starting price on the same card? Preposterous

A picture

Red Bull fined £43,000 after team member tries to tamper with Lando Norris grid tape

Red Bull have been fined £43,000 after a member of the team broke regulations in an act of gamesmanship at the US Grand Prix, when attempting to remove a piece of tape from the pit wall placed there by McLaren to aid their driver Lando Norris in lining up correctly on the grid.The incident was an unusual example of low-level skulduggery between teams as Red Bull were caught out by CCTV cameras trackside and the race stewards issued the fine for events which took place just before the off.Norris was lined up in second place behind Red Bull’s Max Verstappen on the grid at Austin, where Verstappen went on to win. Some teams will use a piece of tape attached vertically to the trackside pit wall as a marking indicator for drivers of their grid box.With visibility from the car very limited, especially of the markings on the grid itself, it is a visual aid for the driver to ensure they are positioned correctly for the start