UK inflation likely to rise because of Middle East war, says Rachel Reeves
Britain is likely to be hit by rising inflation because of the US war with Iran, the chancellor has said, as she suggested a “rapid de-escalation” would be the best protection against a jump in energy prices,Rachel Reeves stopped short of setting out any new relief for people who could be hit by rising prices, rebuffing calls to ditch a planned 5p rise in fuel duty in September,The Conservatives plan to force a Commons vote on Tuesday over the rise, but Reeves said the competition watchdog had been ordered to keep a close eye on fuel pump prices and domestic heating oil costs to prevent wartime profiteering,Both the chancellor and the prime minister, Keir Starmer, suggested the government could be prepared to intervene to protect UK households against major cost-of-living shocks to come at the next energy price cap, as oil prices surged past $100 (£75) a barrel for the first time since 2022,Late on Monday night, however, the price for Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell back to below $90 (£70) from a high earlier in the day of $119.
50 (£89).The fall came after Donald Trump indicated to politicians during a speech in Florida that the conflict might end soon.Starmer said a long-term war would affect the “lives and households of everybody” but said the government would seek to “get ahead” if the conflict was prolonged.US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on targets across Iran on Monday, with crowds gathering in Tehran in support of Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s newly appointed supreme leader.The warning from the chancellor came as:The price of Brent crude oil rocketed to as high as $119.
50 on Sunday, a jump of 29%.The Bank of England is now expected to keep interest rates on hold through 2026, with a small possibility of a rise in 2027.The prospect of a prolonged conflict and higher inflation also pushed global markets lower.The AA said drivers could “consider cutting out some non-essential journeys and changing their driving style to conserve fuel”.Most UK households will be protected in the short term by the energy price cap, but the UK’s reliance on gas from the Middle East makes it especially vulnerable to what amounts to a blockade of the strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s liquid natural gas is transported.
Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, said in a post on X on Monday that safe passage would not be restored “amid the fires ignited by the United States and Israel in the region”,Analysts have said Iran is hoping that restricting the flow of oil to global markets and attacking energy infrastructure in the region will threaten sufficient damage to the global economy to force Trump to end the US offensive, and bring an end to the war on Tehran’s terms,UK ministers are understood to be looking at ways to potentially mitigate the effects of rising costs on energy bills,Speaking in parliament on Monday, the chancellor said the economic impact of the situation in the Middle East “will depend of course on its severity and its duration” but said the movements seen already were “likely to put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months”,Reeves, who spoke to G7 finance ministers earlier on Monday, said the Treasury was ready to support a coordinated release of collective International Energy Agency oil reserves.
Pressure is growing on the chancellor to go further.The Trades Union Congress said “working people are now facing a Donald Trump-made cost of living crisis” and said the government “must stand ready to pull out all the stops and shield households and firms from this global shock”.More than 40 Labour MPs in rural seats have said in a new report that people reliant on heating oil face being plunged into poverty.About 1.5m UK homes are off the gas grid and are not protected by Ofgem’s energy price cap.
The report by the Labour Rural Research Group found that in recent days, some rural households had reported heating oil price increases of up to 117%,“In a matter of days since the war began with Iran, we’ve seen off-grid oil prices surge by more than 100%, leaving thousands of UK rural households extremely vulnerable to off-grid energy price fluctuations,” the Suffolk Coastal MP Jenny Riddell-Carpenter said,“Many thousands of families are now fearful that it will be impossible to buy oil to heat their home, and they are now longing for a mild spring,This volatility exposes rural Britain to greater challenges, and pushes more families into rural poverty,We urgently need a rural strategy that includes an energy price cap for off-grid homes.
”Reeves said discussions would be held on help for people reliant on heating oil and that petrol forecourt bosses had also been called into the Treasury and warned about price gouging.“Let me be absolutely clear: I will not tolerate any company exploiting the current crisis to make excess profits at consumers’ expense,” she said.MPs have begun to privately raise the alarm with the Treasury on how the government is communicating the crisis – saying they believe Starmer and Reeves should be making it more explicit who is to blame for the unfolding crisis and the potential hit to the cost of living, as well as saying that the government will help with measures to ease the problem.YouGov polling on Monday found 74% of the public already expect the conflict to have a negative impact on their household’s finances – including 35% who expect it to have a “very” negative impact.Reeves told MPs the conflict “affects us all, and we must respond to it” but said she was “clear-eyed” about her response, and that the government had already taken steps to shield the economy from global shocks.
“Our energy system is now more secure than it was at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” she said, saying the UK was “less reliant on and less exposed to volatile international energy prices than we were at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and that is welcome”.But Reeves defended her decision to increase fuel duty, which will rise in stages from September this year, the first fuel duty increase in 15 years.The chancellor said drivers would still pay less because of the freeze until September but the Conservatives have tabled a motion in parliament seeking to block the rise and force Labour MPs to publicly back or oppose the measure.
Gambling crackdown in Romania as councils can ban ‘toxic’ betting shops
Romania’s government has overhauled gambling regulations through an emergency decree allowing municipalities to restrict or ban betting shops and slot machine halls in the biggest tightening of the industry the country has seen.Licensed operators must now obtain not only a national permit but also local authorisation to open a gambling venue, giving mayors and local councils a decisive veto power. Officials say more than 200 localities could pursue full bans.There has been a rapid expansion of Romania’s gambling industry, with tens of thousands of slot machines and betting outlets open nationwide, especially in the capital, Bucharest.Until now, gambling halls were authorised centrally without city approval, leaving communities powerless even as venues proliferated near schools and residential areas
NHS England pauses new referrals for masculinising or feminising hormone treatment in under-18s
The NHS is pausing new referrals for masculinising or feminising hormone treatment for 16 and 17-year-olds after an in-depth review found there was insufficient evidence to support its continued use.Prescriptions for hormones had been available in England for under-18s with a diagnosis of gender incongruence or dysphoria who met certain criteria.But after the Cass review, NHS England commissioned its own review of all the available clinical evidence. That review has now concluded and found the evidence did not back the continued use of the treatment for 16 and 17-year-olds.In her review of children’s gender care, Hilary Cass had recommended “extreme caution” in providing such treatment and a “clear clinical rationale for providing hormones at this stage rather than waiting until an individual reaches 18”
Labour to set up new extremism whistleblowing service for university staff
The UK government will expand powers to tackle extremism by setting up a new whistleblowing route for university staff and giving the Charity Commission powers to shut down charities, as part of a new action plan to strengthen social cohesion.The plan, announced by the housing, communities and local government secretary, Steve Reed, will invest a further £5m in the Common Ground Resilience Fund, which was launched to support organisations and authorities tackling divisions in communities.“We must listen to people’s concerns about growing divisions and take action to bring our communities back together,” Reed said.As well as a new whistleblowing service, the plan will include a new Campus Cohesion Charter to strengthen respect and shared values across universities.The strategy will also introduce an annual State of Extremism report setting out the nature and scale of the threat facing the UK and the government’s response, while the Visa Watchlist Taskforce will be strengthened to block hate preachers and extremists from entering the country
Cancer death rate in Britain down by almost a third since 1980s
The rate of people dying from cancer in the UK has fallen by almost a third since the 1980s amid seismic progress in prevention, diagnosis and treatment, a report has found.About 247 in every 100,000 people die from cancer each year, a 29% drop from the peak in 1989 of about 355 per 100,000, according to an analysis by Cancer Research UK (CRUK).Cancer remains Britain’s biggest killer, causing about one in four deaths, and survival rates lag behind a number of European countries, including Romania and Poland.However, in the past decade alone, the rate of people dying from cancer has fallen by 11%. The death rate for ovarian cancer dropped by 19% between 2012-2014 and 2022-2024, stomach cancer fell by 34% and lung cancer 22%
Recreational drugs can more than double risk of stroke, study suggests
Recreational drugs can more than double the risk of stroke, with some of the most concerning impacts seen among younger people, a major review suggests.Scientists analysed medical data from more than 100 million people and found that the risk of stroke was 122% higher for amphetamine users and 96% higher for cocaine users compared with those who did not take the drugs.Cannabis users were also at greater risk, suffering 37% more strokes than non-users, the review found, though researchers saw no evidence that opioids, a highly addictive painkiller, added to a person’s risk of stroke.The rise in strokes observed in connection with some drugs was not confined to older people. When researchers focused on under-55s, they saw a near tripling in stroke risk among amphetamine users
Martha’s rule may have saved 400 lives so far in England, figures show
More than 400 lives may have been saved as a result of Martha’s rule, which lets NHS patients request a review of their care, official figures reveal.Helplines received more than 10,000 calls in the first 16 months of the scheme after its introduction in England in 2024, according to data seen by the Guardian. Thousands of patients were either moved to intensive care, received drugs they needed or benefited from other changes as a direct result of the calls.The system is named after Martha Mills, 13, who died in 2021 from sepsis after a bicycle accident. A coroner found she would probably have survived if she had been moved to the intensive care unit at King’s College hospital in London when she began deteriorating
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