Can Andy Burnham calm the anger in a Manchester seat Labour fears losing?

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When leaked WhatsApp messages sent by former minister Andrew Gwynne were published last year, Stuart Beard was astonished at the scenes outside his office in Denton town square.“There must have been about 60 pensioners with placards,” he said, referring to local anger over Gwynne’s derogatory texts, which included one saying he hoped an elderly woman who didn’t vote Labour “croaked it” before the next election.“I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Beard.“It was like a riot – it was quite funny in a way.”The circus will return to this diverse Manchester constituency after Gwynne’s resignation triggered a potentially seismic byelection that could pave the way for Andy Burnham’s much-hyped return to Westminster.

The Greater Manchester mayor has not yet declared whether he intends to run for the Gorton and Denton seat, regardless of all the hurdles that Starmer allies will throw in his way.But other parties are savouring a chance to give Labour a bloody nose.“Without Burnham on the ballot, my standing expectation would be that Labour would lose – but I wouldn’t be at all sure who they would lose to,” said Prof Robert Ford, of the University of Manchester.Its 119,000 constituents span the left-leaning young professionals of Levenshulme, the white working-class Reform-leaning voters of Denton, and a significant Muslim population – 28% of the seat – around Rusholme and Gorton.Ford believes the race could be a three- or even four-way split between Labour, Reform UK, a pro-Gaza candidate and the Green party.

“If [Burnham] isn’t the candidate then it’s a much more interesting race than if he is,” he said.“He’s such a high-profile candidate up here in Greater Manchester that he’ll probably be able to make the weather enough [to win].”Labour figures in Greater Manchester expect the shortlist to include everyone from the Green party leader, Zack Polanski, to the rabble-rousing ex-Labour MP George Galloway.Galloway, who lost his Rochdale seat after four months in 2024, teased his potential return to Westminster on Friday, saying on X: “Labour has ZERO chance of winning Gorton if I stand.”He is well known in these parts, having run unsuccessfully in 2017.

Another return to parliament, however unlikely, would represent his fifth constituency in 39 years.Labour insiders expect the party to throw its weight behind Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council, who represents a ward in the constituency.Craig is liked by No 10 – she was phoned by Starmer personally to tell her she was being awarded an OBE in the recent new year honours list.But a neighbouring Labour MP said its candidate, whether Burnham or someone else, would struggle to combat the anger and widespread disillusionment among voters.“I’ve never seen anything like it – it’s not a good time,” they said.

The MP said the Gaza issue was not as febrile as it was before the ceasefire in October but that it would still harm Labour – and could prove to be one of the causes of Starmer’s downfall.“Labour has done good stuff [on Gaza] but the truth is the fire is not out and it could flare up again,” they said.“Worst case scenario, we lose Gorton and Denton and get hammered at the local elections – there are enough people who would like to take Keir’s position.”At Longsight market, in a largely Muslim part of south-east Manchester, a van festooned with Palestine flags broadcasts songs in Urdu.Shops nearby are also draped in Palestine’s black, red, white and green.

“I’ve always been Labour, the whole of my family and friends have been Labour,” said stallholder Mohammed Uddin,“But now it will 100% not be Labour,They’re not recognising the genocide,It’s even more of an issue now,My blood starts boiling talking about it.

”Uddin, 60, said everyone he knows will vote for a pro-Gaza candidate: “I don’t think there’s a single one of my mates that will vote Labour.”John Jones, 62, who has worked on Rusholme markets since he was a child helping his parents, said he wanted Burnham to stay in Greater Manchester: “If Burnham ended up as [Labour] leader we could stand a chance but I’d rather he stayed up here and fired bullets at them.”Four miles east in Denton, retired carpenter Brian Huckle said he would only consider voting for Labour if Burnham was the candidate.“For many years I voted Labour but after all the upsets and cutbacks and bloody increases, we’re all definitely against them.”Huckle, 66, said he “kind of likes” Reform UK, which came a distant second in this constituency in 2024, but added: “Whether I vote for them is another thing.

I need to look at their policies in depth,”There was no such uncertainty for Beard, who runs Denton’s Stuart Carpets,“Definitely Reform, irrespective of who Labour put up,” he said,“It’s time for a change from the two-party state,”Reform UK has been planning for a byelection for months, said Allan Hopwood, the party’s only councillor on Labour-run Tameside council.

Activists will start blitzing the area with leaflets in the coming weeks, hoping to get their eighth MP,“We’re going to give it everything we’ve got,” he said,“If Andy Burnham doesn’t think he’s got a fight he would be very wrong,”

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