Keir Starmer’s next steps: what hurdles must the prime minister now negotiate?
Keir Starmer and his supporters will be hoping the resignation of Morgan McSweeney can buy him some time,But in the coming days and weeks the prime minister has to negotiate a series of ominous hurdles, any of which could end his time in office,The release of documents on Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador are expected to include embarrassing personal messages between ministers, advisers and the disgraced peer,This is especially so now the decision is out of the control of No 10,In a vain attempt to take the sting out of the fury about Mandelson’s relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, last Wednesday Starmer agreed to release these documents.
But his proposal that No 10 would control the process threatened a backbench rebellion.Instead, in a sign of Starmer’s weakness, the cross-party intelligence and security committee will decide what gets released.It is unclear how long the committee will take to decide what gets released, but the first documents could emerge in coming days.Starmer believes the release will vindicate his position that Mandelson repeatedly lied to No 10 about his ties to Epstein.But the key question is why Starmer believed Mandelson’s lies when there was so much already in the public domain about his close links with Epstein, even after the financier’s conviction for sex trafficking.
Labour comfortably won this Manchester seat at the 2024 general election with more than 50% of the vote and a majority of more than 13,000.But there is a real prospect Labour could finish third behind the Greens and Reform UK in a vote that’s due on 26 February.A heavy Labour loss would heap more pressure on the PM.Last month Starmer personally intervened to block Andy Burnham, the popular Manchester mayor, from standing in the seat, to prevent a potential leadership challenge.If Labour loses a byelection that it believes Burnham could have won, Starmer is likely to be criticised for putting personal preservation above the good of the Labour party.
Starmer may not have the stomach to carry on if Labour loses the seat.When the party lost the Hartlepool byelection in 2021, Starmer is reported to have been close to quitting, just over a year since being elected as Labour leader.A schools white paper, expected later this month, will outline Labour plans on the fraught issue of special educational needs (Send) provision in state schools, which threatens to further squeeze school funding.Spending on Send is expected to reach £14bn in two years’ time and it has been warned this could bankrupt four out of five English councils.If ministers restrict Send funding they face fury from parents of the growing number of children with special needs.
But if they accept the need for extra funding, that will mean higher taxes or reduced spending elsewhere, which will deepen Labour’s unpopularity.If Starmer’s government gets this balance wrong it could badly stumble.Rachel Reeves is due to make a spring statement on 3 March and will be keen to avoid a similar series of leaks and U-turns to those that dogged the autumn budget.The chancellor, a key ally of Starmer, wants to convey “stability and certainty” to the markets.There have even been reports that she is under pressure to delegate the spring statement to a junior minister to play down the significance of the event.
No new tax and spending measures are currently planned, but pressure on finances could force Reeves’s hand.If anything in the statement spooks the markets, this could destabilise not just the economy but Starmer’s grip on power.The elections on 7 May to local councils, the Scottish parliament and the Welsh Senedd have long been seen as the darkest cloud on Starmer’s horizon.They will give millions of voters the chance to kick his leadership.At a time when Starmer has the lowest approval rating of any prime minister, the results are expected to be especially grim for him.
In Wales, Labour looks set to be voted into opposition for the first time since devolution, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK expected to make substantial gains.At Holyrood, the Scottish National party (SNP) is on course for a majority despite their own difficulties.In England, Labour is expected to lose hundreds of councillors to the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and crucially, Reform UK.If the news is very bad, Starmer no longer has a longstanding chief of staff available to take the blame.
For some, McSweeney resignation removes obstacle to eventual downfall of Starmer
For some Labour MPs, the sight of Keir Starmer accepting the resignation of his long-term consigliere, Morgan McSweeney, encapsulated everything they think is going wrong with the prime minister’s leadership.After days of mounting criticism over McSweeney’s role in advocating for the appointment of Peter Mandelson as Washington ambassador, the prime minister’s chief of staff left Downing Street on Sunday.But while his departure was welcomed by some of the prime minister’s critics, others felt it displayed the kind of political passivity which they say has characterised Starmer’s time in office.“The idea of Morgan being allowed to resign makes the PM look even weaker,” one MP said. “He should have sacked him – now he risks going down with Morgan
Keir Starmer’s next steps: what hurdles must the prime minister now negotiate?
Keir Starmer and his supporters will be hoping the resignation of Morgan McSweeney can buy him some time. But in the coming days and weeks the prime minister has to negotiate a series of ominous hurdles, any of which could end his time in office.The release of documents on Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador are expected to include embarrassing personal messages between ministers, advisers and the disgraced peer. This is especially so now the decision is out of the control of No 10.In a vain attempt to take the sting out of the fury about Mandelson’s relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, last Wednesday Starmer agreed to release these documents
Who are No 10’s new power brokers after Morgan McSweeney’s resignation?
Morgan McSweeney’s departure from Downing Street is the biggest shift in power at the heart of Keir Starmer’s operation since he came to office. As the prime minister appoints two acting replacements for his closest aide, here are the people vying for the prime minister’s ear in the new No 10 operation.Acting chief of staffAlakeson won plaudits before the election for leading Starmer’s outreach to the business community. Like many of those at the top of the Labour party, she has a background at the Resolution Foundation thinktank, where she was deputy chief executive. Before that she worked in the Treasury as a policy adviser
Morgan McSweeney: brains behind Labour’s comeback undone by poor judgment
In the early hours of 5 July 2024, Keir Starmer arrived at Tate Modern in central London to celebrate Labour’s landslide election victory. As he prepared to address the throng of cheering activists, he was flanked by two people: his wife, Victoria, and his closest aide, Morgan McSweeney.A reluctant McSweeney, it was reported, was dragged on stage by the soon-to-be prime minister to a roar from the party’s foot soldiers. A few years previously, this moment had seemed impossible. Many believe that, without McSweeney, it would have been
Decent or disastrous? Starmer’s judgment and leadership divide opinion | Letters
Polly Toynbee (It’s tragic that a decent PM will be brought down by Mandelson’s sleaze – but it’s a matter of when, not if, 6 February) says she cannot “understand the reason for this level of public dislike for a good and serious man”. Keir Starmer’s failure of judgment over Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US is just the last straw.Starmer’s accumulating failures have resulted from his complete lack of vision; there has been no inspiring “this is the kind of society we are going to create”. He has been leading the nation into a strategic vacuum. When the horses do not know which way to face, they all pull in different directions
Morgan McSweeney resigns as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff
Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, has quit his role as the prime minister’s closest aide amid anger over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.The senior No 10 adviser’s position had grown increasingly untenable as pressure on the prime minister mounted over the scandal, which followed the release of emails underlining the extent of Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with the convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.McSweeney resigned on Sunday, saying he took “full responsibility” for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, who had been a close ally and political mentor. He said the decision had undermined trust in Labour, the country and politics itself and it was the “honourable course” for him to go.The departure of Labour’s most consequential political figure in recent years will come as a major blow to Starmer, who had come to rely on McSweeney’s political judgment, often over his own, even though No 10 came under fire regularly as a result
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