Growth figures give boost to Reeves – but it’s too early to get carried away
At the end of last year, Rachel Reeves was under fire for the impact of budget speculation on Britain’s economy.All of the noise about fiscal holes, tax increases and spending cuts before her late November budget was having a real-world effect on the spending decisions of households and businesses.The latest official figures will therefore come as a boost for the chancellor.Britain’s economy grew more strongly than expected in November, up 0.3%, despite the fog of uncertainty in the lead up to her critical tax and spending speech at the end of the month.
Much of the increase was outside Reeves’s direct control.After manufacturing output was crushed by the Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack earlier in the autumn, a recovery was always anticipated.With the return of its production lines close to capacity, factory output in November raced ahead.Elsewhere there were signs of the budget speculation hitting output.Real estate activity slumped in November, as property owners and house hunters put things on hold while awaiting the outcome of the chancellor’s tax decisions.
Consumer-facing businesses also struggled, partly fuelled by the uncertainty sapping household confidence.However, the UK’s dominant service sector was stronger than anticipated despite these headwinds.Within the Treasury there is acknowledgment that too much speculation has throttled growth.As a result, the chancellor has promised a no-frills spring statement.Leaving a significantly larger buffer against her fiscal rules and removing a requirement for the Office for Budget Responsibility to check whether they are being met in the spring is all designed to limit the chances of a repeat.
Having come through this period of pre-budget speculation in better shape than feared, the hope now for Reeves is that Britain’s economy could strengthen further in the coming months,So far surveys show a small uptick in December,The latest figures from the purchasing mangers index – a closely watched barometer of business activity – show private sector output improved as firms put the chaotic months of tax speculation behind them,There are also positive tailwinds,Inflation is expected to fall significantly – helped by Reeves’s budget measures.
The Bank of England predicts the headline rate could drop by as much as 0.5 percentage points, enabling it to hit its 2% target by the spring.There are tentative signs of the jobs market stabilising, workers are benefiting from real wage growth and households are sitting on elevated levels of savings.If consumer confidence improves, this could translate into stronger retail, hospitality and leisure spending.However, economists say there are reasons not to get carried away.
Business leaders warn cost pressures remain high.A rising minimum wage, tax increases, elevated borrowing costs, and the cumulative impact of past increases on all of these fronts is likely to weigh heavily.In its 2026 outlook, the Resolution Foundation said this could finish off many so-called “zombie firms” that have been able to just about keep paying the bills – leading to a sharp uptick in unemployment.Geopolitical concerns have risen up the agenda.Donald Trump’s increasingly interventionist approach to world affairs could chill the world economy and business investment.
Meanwhile, on the domestic front Labour has a tough round of May elections to overcome – raising the spectre of fresh political instability.November might have been a stronger month than anticipated.But there is considerably more work still to be done for the chancellor to lift the clouds over the UK economy in 2026.
Woman pulled out of UK ultramarathon after death threats over Afghanistan fundraising
A woman was pulled out of Britain’s most gruelling ultramarathon after receiving death threats over her fundraising for Afghan women and girls.Sarah Porter was nearly a third of the way through the 108-mile Montane Winter Spine Challenger South endurance race when organisers made the “difficult decision” to withdraw her due to threats to her life in relation to the foundation she runs helping women and girls in war zones.Speaking to the Guardian, Porter said she was disappointed. “My immediate feeling was just one of shame really.”“I was very emotional,” she said, “just born from the perspective that I really felt like I’d let down the girls that I was running for and I’d really kind of got this narrative in my head and psyched myself up that what I was doing was just so insignificant in comparison to what they’re enduring
Circumcision kits found on sale on Amazon UK as concerns grow over harm to baby boys
Circumcision kits have been found on sale on Amazon UK, highlighting lax regulation as concerns grow about deaths and serious harm to baby boys.In December, a UK coroner issued warnings about insufficient circumcision regulation after the death in 2023 of a six-month-old boy, Mohamed Abdisamad, from a streptococcus infection.In a prevention of future deaths report, Dr Anton van Dellen, assistant coroner for west London, highlighted how “any individual may conduct a non-therapeutic male circumcision (NTMC) without any prior training”, with “no requirement for any infection control measures [and] no requirements for any aftercare”, adding that “action should be taken to prevent future deaths”.The Department of Health and Social Care has until the end of February to respond.The Guardian found “Plastibell” kits, in various sizes, on sale for £200 on Amazon in January
One in four UK teenagers in care have attempted to end their lives, study says
One in four teenagers in care have attempted to end their own life, and are four times more likely to do so than their peers with no care experience, according to a landmark study.The research analysed data from the millennium cohort study, which follows the lives of 19,000 people born in the UK between 2000 and 2002, and considered how out of home care, including foster, residential and kinship care, affected the social and mental health outcomes of the participants.More than one in four (26%) 17-year-olds who have lived in foster or residential care have attempted to end their own lives, the analysis found, compared with only one in 14 (7%) of teenagers with no experience of being in care.Although previous research has found that about 7% of UK children have attempted suicide by the age of 17, this study, conducted by academics from the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is the first to calculate the elevated suicide risk teenagers with care experience have.Lisa Harker, the director of the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory, said the fact that one in four care-experienced children had attempted suicide was a “national emergency”
Five minutes more exercise and 30 minutes less sitting could help millions live longer
Just five extra minutes of exercise and half an hour less sitting time each day could help millions of people live longer, according to research highlighting the potentially huge population benefits of making even tiny lifestyle changes.Until now, evidence about reducing the number of premature deaths assumed that everyone must meet specific targets, overlooking the positives of even minor increases in physical activity.Moderate-intensity physical activity such as brisk walking for an extra five minutes a day was associated with an estimated 10% reduction in deaths, the study of 135,000 people from the UK, US, Norway and Sweden found.Researchers led by the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences also found reducing sedentary time by 30 minutes a day was associated with an estimated 7% reduction in all deaths.The greatest benefit was seen if the least active 20% of the population increased their activity by five minutes each day
NHS spending up to £19k a time treating people suffering after overseas surgery, research finds
The NHS is spending up to almost £20,000 a time treating people who have suffered serious setbacks after having medical procedures abroad, research has found.Hospitals are having to “pick up the pieces” when things go wrong for the growing number of Britons going overseas for weight loss surgery, breast enlargements or other operations.As many as 53% of those who do end up with complications such as infections, organ failure and wounds that do not heal, according to a study published in the journal BMJ Open.Some people need a stay in intensive care, further surgery and large amounts of antibiotics in order to recover from botched treatment they have paid for in another country, researchers found.Patients have ended up in a UK hospital for as long as 45 days as a result of complications that arose after an operation to lose weight and even longer – 49 days – after cosmetic surgery
LGB+ people in England and Wales ‘much’ more likely to die by suicide than straight people
LGB+ people are much more likely to die by taking their own lives, drug overdoses and alcohol-related disease than their straight counterparts, the first official figures of their kind show.The 2021 census in England and Wales asked people aged 16 and above about their sexual orientation for the first time. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has now analysed differences in causes of mortality from March 2021 to November 2024. The ONS research uses the acronym LGB+ rather than LGBTQ+.It found that people who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or “other” sexual orientation had 1
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