The Breakdown | Frontrunners’ defeats hint at twists and turns to come in Prem Rugby finale

A picture


There are small but significant moments in every league campaign.Until the weekend it was widely assumed that Northampton and Bath, the two frontrunners in the English Prem, were all but nailed on for home semi-finals and, by extension, would almost certainly meet in the grand final at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham on 20 June.That could still happen but, suddenly, others are entering the chat.Not only did Saints and Bath lose at the weekend but both were well beaten, 41-17 by Leicester and 35-12 by Exeter respectively.Bath, including their Champions Cup semi-final in Bordeaux, have lost three games on the trot.

Northampton were not so much batted aside by the Tigers as unceremoniously flattened.A deeper dive into the historical stats also unearths some interesting nuggets.The last time Bath lost two consecutive league games under Johann van Graan was in October 2023, when a clutch of players were at the World Cup in France.Northampton, meanwhile, have never conceded as many points away against their East Midlands rivals’ ground in the league as they did on Saturday.The burning question is whether all this is just a blip, or an indicator of something deeper?In that regard Northampton fans will hope their director of rugby, Phil Dowson, was correct after the game.

“We’ve got to be careful of over-egging it because it’s only the second game we’ve lost this season,” he said.“While we’ve got to make sure we don’t take it lightly, we also have to ensure we don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.” Give or take the mixed metaphors it is a fair point: Saints will cement a playoff place if they beat Bristol Bears at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday and have eminently winnable fixtures against Gloucester and Harlequins in the remaining two rounds.Bath, on the face of it, also remain in a decent position.Bottom-placed Newcastle will head to the Rec this weekend and, should Bristol lose in the East Midlands, victory over the stumbling Red Bulls should deliver a top-four finish.

“Never too high, never too low,” as Van Graan keeps reminding all and sundry on a weekly basis.That said, those weekend results have slightly tweaked the psychology around the run-in.Northampton may have the league’s slickest attack but injuries have been nibbling away at their squad depth and the defence has been increasingly porous.Saints have shipped an average of more than 35 points in their past three league games.Leicester, furthermore, will not be the slightest bit apprehensive if they end up facing their old rivals again, having just put six tries past a Saints side containing a fair sprinkling of England players.

As with Michael Cheika last season, Geoff Parling has done a fine job from virtually a standing start and the Tigers seem to be gathering momentum at the right time.It might even be enough to steal a home semi-final draw, depending on how the last three rounds pan out.If they can beat Sale away and Exeter at home, their final fixture is against – drum roll – Bath at the Rec.By that stage Bath would ideally be looking to rest key men at the end of a long season, but that luxury might not necessarily be available.Which would be interesting even if there wasn’t already a faint suspicion that Bath are running through end-of-year treacle.

In Exeter on Sunday, Van Graan referenced the long run of games his squad have slogged through as they battled away on two fronts.The defending champions will benefit from a week’s rest next week but, even so, the defeat by Exeter will be studied with interest by their rivals.Because, à la Sherlock Holmes and the Adventure of Silver Blaze, it was what didn’t happen in the second half that was perhaps the most significant aspect.With a strong wind at their backs, their famed Bomb Squad rumbling on for the last half hour and trailing by only six points entering the final quarter, everything was set up for the visitors to pull the trigger.Instead the Chiefs, playing into the elements, won the last 20 minutes by a margin of 17-0.

The simplest – and most plausible – explanation is that Bath were still mentally and physically jiggered after their semi-final loss in France.That certainly looked the case.But Exeter had also just lost a Challenge Cup semi-final – albeit a couple of days earlier – and did not have their star man, Manny Feyi-Waboso, on the field either.There was also a marked contrast in the two sides’ attacking games.There is nothing wrong with Bath’s scrum or maul but they were a shadow of themselves with the ball.

Henry Arundell and Joe Cokanasiga barely received a pass out wide and even Finn Russell, such an outstanding fly-half, could inject little in the way of fizz.Russell was also starting his 24th competitive match of the season; he gets paid big bucks but he is increasingly having to earn them.It still feels likeliest, when you crunch the numbers, that Saints, Bath, Leicester and Exeter will occupy the playoff berths unless either Bears or Saracens, finishing as strong as anyone, can hurl themselves at the tape.But what happens then? A weary, slightly depleted Northampton against a determined Exeter with Leicester hosting Bath – rather than vice versa – in the other semi-final? There may yet be a twist in this season’s Prem tale.This is an extract from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown.

To subscribe just visit this page and follow the instructions,
politicsSee all
A picture

‘Hold the line’: Burnham tells allies in parliament he still has options to return

Andy Burnham has told Labour MPs they should hold the line and that he has options to return to parliament after several seats identified by his allies failed to materialise.Two seats that backers of the Greater Manchester mayor had described as “nailed on” as recently as Monday night are now out of contention after the MPs concerned got cold feet.Burnham spoke to a number of MPs by phone on Tuesday and assured them that he still intended to seek an imminent return to parliament.The Guardian was told by two MPs on Wednesday that Jeff Smith, who represents Manchester Withington, an affluent suburb of the city, was in talks about stepping aside for Burnham, but his friends denied it. Asked whether he was about to make way, Smith told the Press Association he was not

A picture

EU proposes end to ‘five tabs, three apps and a prayer’ for cross-border train bookings

Cross-border train journeys through several European countries are the stuff of many a holidaymaker’s dreams.But the reality of trying to buy the tickets, navigating multiple websites without knowing who can help if a connection is missed, can prove less than relaxing. As one MEP puts it, it can often require “five tabs, three apps and a prayer”.Now, however, the European Commission has proposed that before the end of the decade passengers should be able to buy one ticket for one journey and be better protected when trains are late or cancelled.“Europeans will be able with the click of a button to plan, compare and purchase multimodal journeys across borders while benefiting from stronger rail passenger rights, greater transparency and better protection every step of the way,” the EU transport commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, said on Wednesday, as he published new rules intended to transform the “excessively complex” experience he said rail travellers met when booking tickets

A picture

What is the king’s speech and what is the state opening of parliament?

The king’s speech is the centrepiece of the state opening of parliament, the main ceremonial event of the parliamentary calendar, and the only regular occasion when the three constituent parts of parliament – the sovereign, the House of Lords and the House of Commons – meet. It marks the start of the new parliamentary year,Although delivered by the monarch in their constitutional role as the UK head of state, the speech is written by the government to outline its policies and proposed legislation for the new parliamentary session. Formally called the “speech from the throne” because it is delivered from the throne of the House of Lords, the monarch reads it out in a neutral tone. Whatever their private feelings the monarch must not show any preference for any political party or its policies.The event is taking place as the prime minister, Keir Starmer, fights for his future in Downing Street after heavy losses in the 7 May elections

A picture

Online safety campaigners reveal Starmer frustrations after Phillips exit

Internet safety and children’s rights campaigners have accused Keir Starmer of failing to act on proposals to stop children sending and receiving nude images on their phones, after Jess Phillips resigned from the government saying she was tired of seeing “opportunities for progress stalled and delayed”.The Labour politician was one of four ministers who quit on Tuesday and joined more than 80 MPs calling for the prime minister to go.In a coruscating letter she focused on a lack of urgency and boldness in tackling child abuse images, accusing Starmer of failing to take action to stop children being able to take or send naked pictures.She said: “Over a year ago I presented solutions, long worked on by brilliant civil servants, that would end the ability for children in the UK to take naked images of themselves.“We could stop this abuse

A picture

Are working-class voters lost to Labour for good? | Letters

It would be helpful for progressive parties and the media to focus more on why so many people voted for Reform UK. Your article (What’s behind surge in support for Reform and Greens across England? Five key takeaways, 10 May) indicates that it gained more support in deprived areas – but this doesn’t answer the question why.What sort of UK do Reform voters want? Do they want councils that reduce local care services for their vulnerable elderly relatives and children, to save a few pennies off council tax? The ending of environmental protections? The scrapping of equal-opportunities policies that protect women and minority groups?When Reform voters are asked about the party’s policies, they fail to articulate much apart from “stop the boats” – because Reform’s plans have very little detail or real‑world application.The Labour government has been in power for less than two years and has delivered the Renters’ Rights Act and the Employment Rights Act, removed the two-child cap on universal credit, increased provision of free school meals and facilitated millions more NHS appointments.The focus on personality-driven politics has left the door open for local governments to be led by privately educated multimillionaires who dismiss the climate crisis and favour cryptocurrency

A picture

Labour MPs channel Tory psychodrama as Starmer keeps hiding in plain sight | John Crace

It used to be football managers who measured their time at a club in months. Or even days at Spurs. Anything over two years qualifies you for a long service medal. Now it’s prime ministers. In fact it’s worse than that