The Breakdown | Frontrunners’ defeats hint at twists and turns to come in Prem Rugby finale
There are small but significant moments in every league campaign.Until the weekend it was widely assumed that Northampton and Bath, the two frontrunners in the English Prem, were all but nailed on for home semi-finals and, by extension, would almost certainly meet in the grand final at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham on 20 June.That could still happen but, suddenly, others are entering the chat.Not only did Saints and Bath lose at the weekend but both were well beaten, 41-17 by Leicester and 35-12 by Exeter respectively.Bath, including their Champions Cup semi-final in Bordeaux, have lost three games on the trot.
Northampton were not so much batted aside by the Tigers as unceremoniously flattened.A deeper dive into the historical stats also unearths some interesting nuggets.The last time Bath lost two consecutive league games under Johann van Graan was in October 2023, when a clutch of players were at the World Cup in France.Northampton, meanwhile, have never conceded as many points away against their East Midlands rivals’ ground in the league as they did on Saturday.The burning question is whether all this is just a blip, or an indicator of something deeper?In that regard Northampton fans will hope their director of rugby, Phil Dowson, was correct after the game.
“We’ve got to be careful of over-egging it because it’s only the second game we’ve lost this season,” he said.“While we’ve got to make sure we don’t take it lightly, we also have to ensure we don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.” Give or take the mixed metaphors it is a fair point: Saints will cement a playoff place if they beat Bristol Bears at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday and have eminently winnable fixtures against Gloucester and Harlequins in the remaining two rounds.Bath, on the face of it, also remain in a decent position.Bottom-placed Newcastle will head to the Rec this weekend and, should Bristol lose in the East Midlands, victory over the stumbling Red Bulls should deliver a top-four finish.
“Never too high, never too low,” as Van Graan keeps reminding all and sundry on a weekly basis.That said, those weekend results have slightly tweaked the psychology around the run-in.Northampton may have the league’s slickest attack but injuries have been nibbling away at their squad depth and the defence has been increasingly porous.Saints have shipped an average of more than 35 points in their past three league games.Leicester, furthermore, will not be the slightest bit apprehensive if they end up facing their old rivals again, having just put six tries past a Saints side containing a fair sprinkling of England players.
As with Michael Cheika last season, Geoff Parling has done a fine job from virtually a standing start and the Tigers seem to be gathering momentum at the right time.It might even be enough to steal a home semi-final draw, depending on how the last three rounds pan out.If they can beat Sale away and Exeter at home, their final fixture is against – drum roll – Bath at the Rec.By that stage Bath would ideally be looking to rest key men at the end of a long season, but that luxury might not necessarily be available.Which would be interesting even if there wasn’t already a faint suspicion that Bath are running through end-of-year treacle.
In Exeter on Sunday, Van Graan referenced the long run of games his squad have slogged through as they battled away on two fronts.The defending champions will benefit from a week’s rest next week but, even so, the defeat by Exeter will be studied with interest by their rivals.Because, à la Sherlock Holmes and the Adventure of Silver Blaze, it was what didn’t happen in the second half that was perhaps the most significant aspect.With a strong wind at their backs, their famed Bomb Squad rumbling on for the last half hour and trailing by only six points entering the final quarter, everything was set up for the visitors to pull the trigger.Instead the Chiefs, playing into the elements, won the last 20 minutes by a margin of 17-0.
The simplest – and most plausible – explanation is that Bath were still mentally and physically jiggered after their semi-final loss in France.That certainly looked the case.But Exeter had also just lost a Challenge Cup semi-final – albeit a couple of days earlier – and did not have their star man, Manny Feyi-Waboso, on the field either.There was also a marked contrast in the two sides’ attacking games.There is nothing wrong with Bath’s scrum or maul but they were a shadow of themselves with the ball.
Henry Arundell and Joe Cokanasiga barely received a pass out wide and even Finn Russell, such an outstanding fly-half, could inject little in the way of fizz.Russell was also starting his 24th competitive match of the season; he gets paid big bucks but he is increasingly having to earn them.It still feels likeliest, when you crunch the numbers, that Saints, Bath, Leicester and Exeter will occupy the playoff berths unless either Bears or Saracens, finishing as strong as anyone, can hurl themselves at the tape.But what happens then? A weary, slightly depleted Northampton against a determined Exeter with Leicester hosting Bath – rather than vice versa – in the other semi-final? There may yet be a twist in this season’s Prem tale.This is an extract from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown.
To subscribe just visit this page and follow the instructions,
Global oil inventories falling at record pace amid Iran war; US producer price inflation hits four-year high – as it happened
Global oil stocks are being run down at a record pace as supply losses mount due to the ongoing Iran war, the International Energy Agency has warned.In its latest outlook report, the IEA reports that global oil inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March, and by a further 117 million barrels in April, as countries dipped into their reserves to cover the shortfall following the Middle East conflict.The IEA, which ordered the largest release of government oil reserves in its history in mid-March, reports:double quotation markMore than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace.The IEA also forecasts weaker demand this year, as the jump in prices for crude oil and refined products leads to demand destruction.World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420,000 barrels per day this year, to 104m bpd, which is 1
Lab testing group Intertek to back £10.6bn takeover by Swedish firm EQT
The laboratory testing company Intertek has become the latest FTSE 100 business to agree to a takeover, backing a £10.6bn approach from a private equity firm owned by Sweden’s billionaire Wallenberg family.After rebuffing three previous approaches, Intertek’s board said it was “minded to recommend” the £60-a-share tilt from the Swedish buyout firm EQT to shareholders, if there was a firm offer.The deal is worth £10.6bn including debt, or £9
Fortescue ordered to pay Yindjibarndi traditional owners $150m in record native title payout
Mining company Fortescue has been ordered to pay $150m in compensation to traditional owners over cultural losses caused by the multibillion-dollar Solomon Hub iron ore mine – the largest compensation payout in native title history.The mine, which has extracted millions of tonnes of iron ore and generated an estimated $80bn in revenue for Fortescue since operations began in 2013, was approved by the Western Australian government without the consent of the Yindjibarndi traditional owners.The Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation (YNAC) launched the compensation claim in 2022 and sought $1.8bn, including $1bn for cultural damage, $678m for economic loss, $34.85m for the destruction of sites, and $112
British Steel: more questions than answers on the future | Nils Pratley
“One of the proudest things we have done in government,” said Keir Starmer in Monday’s big speech about the decision a year ago to recall parliament in order to take control of British Steel at Scunthorpe.It was an odd boast because last year’s action was merely an emergency exercise in saving the patient, as opposed to getting British Steel on its feet and out of the hospital. Taking control meant the Chinese owner, Jingye, could not turn off the two blast furnaces but meant the government was on the hook for operational losses, which will be £615m and counting by next month according to the National Audit Office (NAO).Full nationalisation is now on the cards, which will end the limbo-land state of ownership and give some comfort for 4,000 workers. But it is also the point at which the government will have to choose between its barely described “potential future options” for British Steel
E.ON agrees to buy Ovo in deal to create UK’s biggest energy supplier
The German energy group E.ON has agreed to buy struggling UK rival Ovo in a deal that would create Britain’s biggest gas and electricity supplier by number of households served.The combined company will supply about 9.6 million customers, overtaking the market leader, Octopus, which serves almost 8m homes in the UK.The value of the deal was not disclosed, but reports have estimated it at £600m
Thinktank calls for ‘double lock’ England private rent cap to ease living costs
One of the thinktanks closest to the Labour government is urging ministers to introduce private sector rent controls in England, as the chancellor weighs up how to ease a surge in living costs caused by the Iran war.The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has published a paper calling for a rent “double lock”, which would link rent increases to either wages or inflation, depending on which was lower.While others on the left have previously called for rent controls, the IPPR’s extensive links inside government will increase pressure on ministers to include the idea in a cost of living package to be announced by Rachel Reeves later in May.The Guardian revealed last month that Reeves had been considering a one-year rent freeze to deal with a rise in inflation which economists say is now inevitable, but the idea was quickly dismissed by Downing Street.Maya Singer Hobbs, the author of the paper, said: “There are millions of people living with unaffordable housing costs, and if you want to bring those down quickly there are not many options
How to make arancini – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass
Navel gazing: oranges, mandarins and persimmons top Australia’s best-value fruit and veg for May
Australian supermarket sauerkraut taste test: one is ‘like eating the smell of McDonald’s pickle’
Spring soup and bean and cheese quesadillas: Thomasina Miers’ Mexican-inspired seasonal recipes
Willy’s, Margate, Kent: ‘It chortles in the face of small plates’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants
Why sweet, chewy dates go perfectly with chocolate – and the best ones to try