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The Middle East price shock hasn’t hit Next – yet | Nils Pratley

about 5 hours ago
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In the context of Next, which has just reported full-year pre-tax profits of £1.16bn, an estimated £15m of extra fuel and air freight costs arising from the Middle East conflict is tiny.The sum, which in any case assumes disruption lasts three months, can be lost in the wash, or more precisely “offset by savings elsewhere”.The chief executive, Simon Wolfson, a boss who tends to err on the side of caution when guiding on profits, saw no reason not to add £8m to this year’s number as a mechanical read-through from last year’s outcome.If there wasn’t a war on, one can assume there would have been a proper profit upgrade.

After all, trading seems to have been going like a train up until late-February – “encouraging” in the UK and “strong” overseas.Thus the sole – but enormous – asterisk over these results was the impact if the conflict drags on.Wolfson obviously has no greater insight on duration and long-term implications than anyone else, and said so.“As yet, we have no feel for the medium-term effects on supply chain resilience, freight rates, factory gate prices and consumer demand,” he said.If higher costs persist, Next will put up prices – but that remains “a contingency not a plan”.

Come back in May for the first-quarter update for a clearer view,But there were, perhaps, two nuanced insights amid the uncertainty,First, the idea that consumer confidence has already “collapsed”, which is what the British Retail Consortium said this week, may be overdoing things,Wolfson said he had not yet seen a hit to sentiment,“If energy bills and the [higher costs] feed through to [retail] prices that is when they will respond,” he said.

All retailers are different, but the same point is made privately by others in consumer-facing businesses: UK consumers tend to react to the arrival of higher prices, not the threat of them.The second point is related: there are other lags.For clothing retailers, the spring-summer ranges are already in shops, online and in warehouses.There is no need (yet) for big adjustments.The possible increases in the cost of fabrics, plus any production disruption in Asian factories, would mostly be felt in the autumn-winter ranges.

The crunch-point is still a way off, in other words.This is still the phoney phase, retailing-wise.The stock market took the optimistic view.Next’s shares were the biggest riser in the Footsie, improving 5%.Well, yes, there is perfectly plausible reading that says, if a mere £15m in extra shipping and fuel costs turns out to be worst of it, Next could be upgrading profits in May.

It remains a resilient business.All the same, nobody will be immune if the energy price shock goes on much longer and if the OECD is right that the UK economy will grow by just 0.7% this year.The share price stands at £125.40, versus the £131 at which Next, under Wolfson’s strict formula for economic value, currently judges it worthwhile to buy back its own shares.

One might expect the gap to be wider, as it has been at many points in the past 20 years when the outside weather has been easy to read.May’s update will set the tone for the entire retail sector, one suspects.
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The Middle East price shock hasn’t hit Next – yet | Nils Pratley

In the context of Next, which has just reported full-year pre-tax profits of £1.16bn, an estimated £15m of extra fuel and air freight costs arising from the Middle East conflict is tiny. The sum, which in any case assumes disruption lasts three months, can be lost in the wash, or more precisely “offset by savings elsewhere”.The chief executive, Simon Wolfson, a boss who tends to err on the side of caution when guiding on profits, saw no reason not to add £8m to this year’s number as a mechanical read-through from last year’s outcome. If there wasn’t a war on, one can assume there would have been a proper profit upgrade

about 5 hours ago
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NS&I chief executive replaced in ‘fresh start’ over missing savings crisis; bad day for markets – as it happened

The boss of National Savings and Investments appears to have been dismissed over the £476m savings scandal at the bank.Pensions minister Torsten Bell has told MPs that he has appointed Sir Jim Harra, a senior civil servant, to take over as the chief executive of NS&I on an interim basis, replacing Dax Harkins.Bell says Harra, a former first permanent secretary at HMRC, will provide “a fresh start for NS&I”, following its failure to trace missing savings belonging to customers who have died.Updating MPs on the crisis over deceased customers’ savings, Bell says he wants to make sure NS&I has “the very best leadership” in place.Bell tells MPs: double quotation markSir Jim will undertake a review over the next three months to spell out in detail the background to this tracing problem and to set out what lessons must be learned for NSI going forward

about 5 hours ago
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New York City hospitals drop Palantir as controversial AI firm expands in UK

New York City’s public hospital system announced that it would not be renewing its contract with Palantir as controversy mounts in the UK over the data analytics and AI firm’s government contract.The president of the US’ largest municipal public health care system, Dr Mitchell Katz, testified last week before the New York City Council that the agreement with Palantir would expire in October.He said at the hearing that the contract, which focused on recovering money for insurance claims, was always meant to be short term, and that there was an “absolute firewall” preventing Palantir from sharing information with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He said that the agency has “not had any incidents”.The contract and related payment documents shared with the Guardian by the American Friends Service Committee and first reported by the Intercept, show that NYC Health + Hospitals has paid Palantir nearly $4m since November 2023

about 4 hours ago
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Brussels opens investigation into Snapchat amid concern over children’s safety

Brussels has opened an investigation into Snapchat over concerns the social messaging app is exposing children to grooming, sexual exploitation and other criminality.In a separate decision on Thursday, the European Commission also said four pornographic websites were failing to prevent minors seeing adult content, harming young people’s mental health and fuelling negative gender attitudes.The investigations into five tech companies were brought under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), which has come under fire from Donald Trump since coming into force two years ago. Aiming to protect European society from a wide range of internet harms, the DSA includes child safety provisions to combat cyberbullying, exposure to adult content and illegal products.The announcements came after a landmark ruling in a Los Angeles court found that two social media companies, Meta and YouTube, had deliberately created addictive products that harmed a young user

about 5 hours ago
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Sinner continues smooth Miami progress with win over Tiafoe as rivals fall

The past nine days at the Miami Open have not been kind to most of the world’s best male tennis players. One by one, so many have fallen, most dumped out with mediocre performances. Even ­Carlos Alcaraz, the world No 1, was not immune to the string of ­giantkillings in Florida.One man remains completely unbothered. Having broken Novak Djokovic’s 2016 record for most ­consecutive sets won at Masters 1000 events earlier in the ­tournament, ­Jannik Sinner has continued to ­bulldoze through the draw as he tries to follow up his recent Indian Wells title by winning the Sunshine Double

about 3 hours ago
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From Laurel Hubbard to sex testing in five years: why the Olympics U-turned on transgender rules | Sean Ingle

The IOC’s shift in position on trans women in elite sports is seismic, but new president Kirsty Coventry is reflecting a changed political climateBy any measure, it amounts to one of the most astonishing U-turns from a governing body in modern times. Four and a half years ago, the International Olympic Committee was lauding the appearance of the first transgender weightlifter, Laurel Hubbard, at an Olympics, and issuing a framework to sports saying that transgender women “should not be deemed to have an unfair or disproportionate competitive advantage” over biological women.Now it has not only ripped up every last morsel of that guidance but also performed a spectacular 180-degree turn.Over 10 tightly worded pages, the IOC now states that the female category must be protected for fairness and safety reasons, and makes it clear that SRY screening – a sex test using saliva or a cheek-swab – will be used to determine biological sex.It is a monumental shift that means transgender women and athletes with differences in sex development (DSD), who were reported as female at birth but have internal testes and have undergone male puberty, are now banned from the female category at all future Olympics

about 4 hours ago
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Jon Stewart on Donald Trump’s Iran lies: ‘Our Supreme Misleader’

2 days ago
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Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? at 60: Elizabeth Taylor still crackles with feral energy

2 days ago
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Punk masks, Walkmans and Choppers: Museum of Youth Culture to open in London

3 days ago
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‘Audiences told us we didn’t show enough teacher sex’: how we made Waterloo Road

3 days ago
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What does loneliness smell like? Inside the strangely soothing world of fragrance TikTok

4 days ago
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‘On the threshold of a new age’: inside the New Museum’s $82m expansion and landmark new exhibition in New York

5 days ago