Stagflation fears rise as escalating Iranian war drives up oil price again – business live
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy,Hopes that the market turmoil in the energy market might have abated are fading rapidly today, as Iran escalates its attacks on infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf,The oil price has jumped after two tankers were set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters early this morning, after senior Iranian officials warned of a long “war of attrition” that would threaten chaos in the global economy,There are also reports that Oman’s key oil export terminal has been evacuated,These widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities drove Brent crude over the $100 a barrel mark again in early today, hitting $101.
59 a barrel; it’s now slipped back to $97.50 a barrel, up 6% today.The jump in oil prices is fanning fears that the global economy could be tipped into stagflation – the unpleasant combination of rising prices and stagnant growth.Brent crude pops back toward $100 because, well, hard to say why it wasn’t there already pic.twitter.
com/SGjbVYODt2Yesterday’s announcement of the largest release of government reserves in history has not calmed fears of major supply shortages if travel through the strait of Hormuz is not restored.Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says investors are facing the risk of a “broader stagflationary shock”:double quotation markFrom a market perspective, the problem is that investors are increasingly pricing in a more protracted conflict that causes extensive economic damage.After all, with no concrete signs of de-escalation yet, that’s keeping oil prices elevated, and raising the risk of a broader stagflationary shock.Indeed, we know that investors are pricing in the longer scenarios, because the 6-month Brent future is also up +3.06% this morning to $82.
97/bbl, and with each passing day it gets harder to argue that the disruption to shipping and energy infrastructure will only prove temporary.Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at UK wealth manager Evelyn Partners, warns that geopolitics, rather than fundamentals, are increasingly driving markets, adding:double quotation markThe conflict is potentially a stagflationary shock the severity of which depends on its length and export volumes while the SoH remains closed.Oil inventories buy time, but as they erode, risks of higher energy prices, rising inflation and market volatility increase.9am GMT: IEA Oil Market Report9.30am BST: Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey giving opening remarks at the Financial Stability Board11am GMT: Turkey interet rate decision12.
30pm GMT: US weekly jobless claimsHoliday group On The Beach has suspended its profit guidance due to the conflict in the Middle East,On The Beach told sharehoders this morning that its profitability will be hurt by the crisis, saying:double quotation markWhilst the Group has limited exposure to destinations in the Middle East, it has experienced a significant slowdown in demand following the onset of conflict in the region, particularly to destinations such as Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt,The timing of when the conflict will end and the shape of recovery in demand to these destinations are unknown,As a result, it has suspended its previous guidance that it would make an adjusted pre-tax profit of between £39m and £43m this financial year,The latest escalation in the Iran war has hit Asia-Pacific stock markets, with Europe expected to fall at the open too.
In Tokyo, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has fallen by 1.3% today, as has Australia’s S&P ASX 200 index.As well as oil, the Iran war is disrupting supplies of fertilisers, which could drive up food prices.The strait of Hormuz is a key route for fertilisers critical to global agriculture.Analysts have told CNBC disruptions could feed through to higher farming costs, reduced crop yields and ultimately more expensive food.
Raj Patel, a research professor at the University of Texas, has warned that fertiliser disruptions linked to the conflict could amplify global food pressures through several channels simultaneously.Patel says:double quotation mark“The Strait of Hormuz is a fertiliser chokepoint.Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran together supply a substantial share of the world’s traded urea and phosphates, and virtually all of it transits Hormuz.”49% of the world's urea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.Urea is the most-used nitrogen fertilizer on Earth.
The Haber-Bosch process turns natural gas into ammonia, ammonia into urea, and urea into food.It alone is responsible for feeding ~4 billion people.Half the…Today could be another rough day for global bonds, predicts Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, who explains:double quotation markOil prices remain elevated and bonds remain more sensitive than equities to inflation fears.Interest rate volatility is back, and the futures market is now predicting rate hikes for the UK once more.The war has also prompted Goldman Sachs to push back its forecast for US Federal Reserve’s rate cutsIt now expects quarter-point reductions in September and December, having previousl forecast cuts would start in June.
Goldman Sachs have raised their forecasts for the price of oil at the end of this year, having concluded that there will be longer disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz,The investment bank has raised its forecast for Brent, the international benchmark, in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71 a barrel, up from $66 a barrel,US crude is now forecast to average $67 in Q4, up from $62, Reuters reports,Goldman analysts in a note on Thursday said they now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz (SoH) oil flows at 10% of normal levels followed by a 30-day gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption,Brent is expected to average $98/bbl in March and April, but could jump to $110 in an ‘upside risk scenario’ where flows through the strait are disrupted for a month.
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.Hopes that the market turmoil in the energy market might have abated are fading rapidly today, as Iran escalates its attacks on infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf.The oil price has jumped after two tankers were set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters early this morning, after senior Iranian officials warned of a long “war of attrition” that would threaten chaos in the global economy.There are also reports that Oman’s key oil export terminal has been evacuated.These widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities drove Brent crude over the $100 a barrel mark again in early today, hitting $101.
59 a barrel; it’s now slipped back to $97.50 a barrel, up 6% today.The jump in oil prices is fanning fears that the global economy could be tipped into stagflation – the unpleasant combination of rising prices and stagnant growth.Brent crude pops back toward $100 because, well, hard to say why it wasn’t there already pic.twitter.
com/SGjbVYODt2Yesterday’s announcement of the largest release of government reserves in history has not calmed fears of major supply shortages if travel through the strait of Hormuz is not restored,Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says investors are facing the risk of a “broader stagflationary shock”:double quotation markFrom a market perspective, the problem is that investors are increasingly pricing in a more protracted conflict that causes extensive economic damage,After all, with no concrete signs of de-escalation yet, that’s keeping oil prices elevated, and raising the risk of a broader stagflationary shock,Indeed, we know that investors are pricing in the longer scenarios, because the 6-month Brent future is also up +3,06% this morning to $82.
97/bbl, and with each passing day it gets harder to argue that the disruption to shipping and energy infrastructure will only prove temporary.Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at UK wealth manager Evelyn Partners, warns that geopolitics, rather than fundamentals, are increasingly driving markets, adding:double quotation markThe conflict is potentially a stagflationary shock the severity of which depends on its length and export volumes while the SoH remains closed.Oil inventories buy time, but as they erode, risks of higher energy prices, rising inflation and market volatility increase.9am GMT: IEA Oil Market Report9.30am BST: Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey giving opening remarks at the Financial Stability Board11am GMT: Turkey interet rate decision12.
30pm GMT: US weekly jobless claims
Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East
Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.Several merchant ships were struck in and around the strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries in global trade. Three crew members aboard one of the ships – the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree – were “believed to be trapped”, the vessel’s owner said.Meanwhile, Iraq halted all operations at its oil ports after an attack on two nearby oil tankers
How will Australians’ flights to Europe be affected, and at what cost, as the Iran war rages on?
Australians planning to fly to Europe in the northern summer face uncertainty over routes, insurance and even safety, as well as rising prices, as a result of the Middle East war.Major airlines operating through the region – including Emirates and Qatar, both popular choices for Australians heading to Europe – are still reeling amid the war between Israel, the US and Iran. Both carriers are only operating limited flights as they work to alleviate a backlog of passengers stuck in Dubai or Doha.But with European summer on the horizon, Australians are questioning how they may get overseas, and what it might cost.Zara Zarezadeh, a lecturer in tourism at Griffith University, says any international event, whether it be a conflict, political instability or a pandemic, would influence tourist behaviour in both the short and long term
Binance sues Wall Street Journal over reporting on Iranian sanctions
The US government is investigating Binance over allegations that Iran used the crypto exchange to evade sanctions and illegally move funds, according to a Wall Street Journal report published Wednesday.Binance has denied these claims and even sued the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday for defamation.The Journal reported in late February that Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, shut down an internal investigation into more than $1bn in transactions with a network funding Iran-backed terror groups; Binance fired employees for looking into the matter and allowed the network to remain active, according to both the Journal and the New York Times.A Binance spokesperson said in an emailed statement: “Binance categorically did not dismantle any compliance investigation. The WSJ continues to report the same falsities
Meta disables more than 150,000 accounts in crackdown on south-east Asian scam networks
Meta disabled more than 150,000 accounts and Thai police arrested 21 people in a sweeping international crackdown on south-east Asian criminal scam centers that targeted people around the world, the social media company said on Wednesday.The operation was led by Thailand’s Royal Thai police anti-cyber scam center, alongside the FBI and the US justice department’s scam center strike force, with Meta investigators acting on intelligence shared in real time by law enforcement.Alongside the enforcement action, Meta announced a series of new protective tools, including alerts on Facebook for suspicious friend requests and a WhatsApp warning system to flag potentially fraudulent device-linking attempts.One of Meta’s tools aims to detect when a potential Facebook friend shows signs of falsifying details about their profile – like, for example, an account operating out of a different country than the one stated in the profile. The tool provides users details on the account, highlighting potential issues, such as a lack of mutual friends or that the account was recently created, and gives options to either block or report it for inauthentic activity
Trust at 100km/h: how Bluetooth bond helps skier Neil Simpson see his way to glory
Neil Simpson and his guide Robert Poth won silver at the Winter Paralympics on Tuesday, the first medal for Great Britain at these Games. But to watch the athletes in visually impaired alpine skiing descend the slopes of the Dolomites at speeds of up to 100km/h is to be strongly reminded that everyone needs at least another medal, just for being brave enough to do it in the first place.Talk to the 23-year-old Simpson, however, and the concept of taking one’s life into one’s hands doesn’t come into the equation. Born with the condition nystagmus, which causes involuntary eye movements, he has been skiing since he was four, first on the dry slopes in Aberdeen, then at the Glenshee resort, before competing in national competition aged 16. “I think it’s something that’s never really fazed me”, he says
Kit clash farce looms as France set to wear special pale blue shirt against England
England’s Six Nations finale in Paris on Saturday could descend into farce with France poised to wear a special edition pale blue kit that threatens to clash with the white strip worn by Steve Borthwick’s side.Fabian Galthié’s team have confirmed they will don the anniversary kit, which is significantly lighter than their traditional blue strip, for a match that marks 120 years of rivalry between France and England. It is understood, however, that England will still wear their white kit despite the potential for a clash. Match officials are also understood to have given both kits the green light.Six Nations organisers have been wary of issues with kits in the past and no longer permit Wales and Ireland to wear predominantly red and green strips respectively because of the difficulty colour-blind spectators have in differentiating between the two sets of players
At 56, I woke to silence: the strange, sudden loss that changed everything
Drug that prevents hot flushes to be available on NHS in England
Wegovy users have five times greater risk of sudden sight loss than Ozempic users, study finds
Jess Phillips reveals she is ‘victim of courts backlog’ as jury trial bill passes
We need a national plan to tackle the health inequity that is killing people | Letters
Almost a third of people in England use private dentists amid NHS dental crisis