This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn.She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn.Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.

- This means Reeves does not need to become first chancellor in 50 years to raise basic rate on income tax - breaching a central manifesto promise,- Improved forecasts are result of stronger wage growth (and therefore higher tax receipts) which started to feed into figures last week,- But £20bn is still big number - so expect income tax thresholds to be frozen for another two years, taxes on salary sacrifice schemes, fuel duty equivalent for electric vehicles - plus ‘smorgasbord’ of other measures,- As per previous post, I’m told that income tax thresholds will not be cut, despite speculation,- Govt insiders say decision to drop income tax plan is nothing to do with political fall-out after Reeves publicly signalled manifesto breach - causing huge anxiety among Labour MPs (which ultimately fed into No 10’s extraordinary attempts to shore up PM).

- They defend decision to ‘roll the pitch’ on income tax rises - saying at that point they thought it might be necessary and leaving it to just before budget would’ve spooked MPs and markets,Rachel Reeves will put a £7,5bn tax rise at the heart of her budget after scrapping a separate plan to increase income tax rates just days before the announcement,The BBC’s charter review will examine political appointments to the broadcaster’s board, Lisa Nandy has said, as they have “damaged confidence and trust”,She was speaking before President Trump responded to the apology he has received from the BBC over the way his 6 January 2021 speech was edited.

The BBC has rejected his call for compensation.This morning Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, posted this on social media, implying Trump is not minded to forgive and forget.BBC Newsnight also doctored Trump speechhttps://t.co/o33uJ6NBj1The leftwing Your Party spearheaded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana has had a major split after another independent MP involved, Adnan Hussain, quit because of “persistent infighting and a struggle for power” in the organisation.Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, is due to announce sweeping changes next week aimed at making the UK less attractive for migrants and modelled on the Danish system.

A former councillor has been convicted of stalking the former Conservative MP and leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt.For a full list of all the stories covered on the blog today, do scroll through the list of key event headlines near the top of the blog.If the tax threshold freeze is now one of the key features of the budget, this creates a new problem for Rachel Reeves.As the Conservative MP Neil O’Brien points out, in her budget speech last year Reeves said this was a measure that would hurt working people.Reeves told MPs:The previous government froze income tax and national insurance thresholds in 2021, and then did so again after the mini-budget.

Extending their threshold freeze for a further two years raises billions of pounds – money to deal with the black hole in our public finances and repair our public services.Having considered the issue closely, I have come to the conclusion that extending the threshold freeze would hurt working people.It would take more money out of their payslips.I am keeping every single promise on tax that I made in our manifesto, so there will be no extension of the freeze in income tax and national insurance thresholds beyond the decisions made by the previous government.From 2028-29, personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation once again.

When it comes to choices on tax, this government choose to protect working people every single time.This passage is particularly significant because in it Reeves seems to be accepting that extending the income tax threshold freeze would be at least an implicit breach of the Labour manifesto promise (see 8.57am for the wording) – and arguably an explicit one, if “Labour will not increase taxes on working people” is seen as the operative part of the pledge.As Kiran Stacey, Richard Partington and Rowena Mason report, the decision by Rachel Reeves not to raise income tax in the budget means that freezing tax thresholds for another two years will be one of the most prominent revenue-raising measures she will announce.Earlier I quoted Luke Tryl, the More in Common polling expert, arguing that breaking an explicit manifesto promise on tax would have been perilous for Labour.

(See 9.42am.)For an alternative view, do read this thread on Bluesky by Rob Ford, a politics professor and one of the authors of The British General Election 2024, the latest in the Nuffield series of authoritative, academic election histories.Notwithstanding what Labour promises, Ford says at the last election voters expected Labour to put taxes up, and believed that they should put taxes up.Firstly, voters said at every point in the campaign that they expected Labour to put taxes up.

Labour’s manifesto pledges had no discernable effect on this expectation.Nor did the Tory “tax attacks” after the first debate.Its just a flat line saying “we expect Labour to increase tax & spend”Secondly, voters said at every point in the campaign that they believed the government *should* increase taxes and spending.They expected Labour to increase tax and *they agreed with that idea*.Look at the red lines and the blue lines - which is closer to the black line (average voter preference)?Some Labour MPs have argued that, if Labour were to put up income tax in the budget, it would be punished by the electorate just as the Lib Dems were after voting to raise tuition fees.

Ford says that this argument is based on a false understanding of why Lib Dem support collapsed before 2015.Another argument you see often re: manifesto pledges is “look at what happened to the Lib Dems.That proves breaking a high profile manifesto pledge is electoral suicide.” Except..

.that’s not what the polling story of 2010-15 shows at all.The Browne review reported in October 2010, and the govt adopted its recommendations in Nov 2010.The vast majority of the LD fall in the polls happened *before* this.The Lib Dems paid an electoral penalty for forming a coalition with the Conservatives, a party much of its 2010 electorate dislikedTuition fees were not the *reason* for LD poll collapse, which came before the decision was made.

But they subsequently became a *rationalisation* for switching among voters who had already turned against the party.The broken pledge didn’t drive the slump, though it may have made recovery harder.Ford concludes that, for Labour, keeping the promise on “change” may be more important than keeping the promise on income tax.I suspect it would be similar for Labour.But Labour have to weigh the promise not to raise the main taxes against the equally high profile, and endelessly repeated, promise to deliver “change”.

If delivering change is impossible without raising tax, then its pick your poison time,Labour seem to have decided, this week, that the electoral punishment for breaking a promise no one much expected them to keep when they made it will be bigger than the punishment for failing to deliver on the core premise of their whole campaign (the slogan was “Change”),I’m not so sure,Yesterday a fresh split emerged at the top of Your Party, the new leftwing party supposedly being set up by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana,As Nadeem Badshah reports, the dispute is about money donated by supporters held in an account controlled by Sultana which her colleagues are now saying should be transferred to the main Your Party account.

In the Commons Sultana, who was elected as Labour last year but lost the whip, sits with the five Independence Alliance MPs who were all elected last year as pro-Gaza independents,They are: Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Ayoub Khan, Iqbal Mohamed, and Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader,Yesterday all five put out a joint statement urging Sultana to transfer the funds,(She says she is doing this, but that it is just taking some time for administrative reasons,)Today, in an open letter, Hussain says he is stepping away from the Your Party steering group because he has become disillusioned by the infighting, and alarmed by some of the views he has encountered.

He says:The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence rather than a shared commitment to the common good.Instead of openness, cooperation and outward focus, the environment has too often felt toxic, exclusionary and deeply disheartening.I have also been deeply troubled by the way certain figures within the steering process, particularly Muslim men, have been spoken about and treated.At times, the rhetoric used has been disturbingly similar to the very political forces the left claims to oppose.I witnessed insinuations about capability, dismissive attitudes and language that carried, at the very least, veiled prejudice.

This was especially painful given that these individuals, amongst them myself, achieved something remarkable: winning seats, against all odds, in long-established Labour strongholds through sheer grassroots hard work, community credibility and determination, without party machinery or institutional support.After much thought, I have made the difficult decision to step out of the steering process for Your Party.I wish those who continue to work on this endeavour the very best of luck and hope their hard work achieves the results they desire.pic.twitter.

com/zz4EevEIzuThe leftwing Labour MP Richard Burgon has welcomed the news that Rachel Reeves won’t raise income tax in the budget.Raising income taxes on working people would’ve been totally wrong - so it’s good if that’s been dropped.Here’s 3 fairer alternatives:A Wealth Tax of 2% on assets over £10m → £24bn/yrEqualising capital gains & income tax → £12bn/yrWindfall Tax on banks → £14bn/yrThere were five council byelections yesterday.Election Maps UK have the results.The Greens held one seat, and gained another, from the Lib Dems.

Long Ashton (North Somerset) Council By-Election Result:🌍 GRN: 55.7% (+25.1)🌳 CON: 17.7% (-7.2)➡️ RFM: 15.

5% (New)🔶 LDM: 5.7% (-28.8)🌹 LAB: 5.4% (-4.5)Green HOLD.

Changes w/ 2023.Wincheap (Canterbury) Council By-Election Result:🌍 GRN: 39.1% (+24.1)🔶 LDM: 24.1% (-12.

2)➡️ RFM: 16.3% (New)🌹 LAB: 12.8% (-25.5)🌳 CON: 7.7% (-2.

6)Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat.Changes w/ 2023.Commenting on these results, Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, said:People have tried to say that the Green surge is just on social media.Or in a bubble that’s just about polls and just about new members.Yet up and down the country - Greens are also winning elections.

Huge congratulations to Canterbury Greens!Reform UK gained one seat from the Conservatives.Chapel St Leonard's (East Lindsey) Council By-Election Result:➡️ RFM: 65.8% (New)🌳 CON: 15.6% (-20.7)🙋 Ind: 6.

7% (New)🌹 LAB: 5,4% (-27,7)🔶 LDM: 4,7% (New)🙋 Ind: 1,7% (New)No Ind (-30