Woolworths trumpeted eight consecutive quarters of price declines. Here’s why that claim doesn’t pass the pub test

It sounds like great news for households.Average grocery prices have recorded “eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year price declines”, Woolworths declared at its half-year financial results.It’s a big claim given that most shoppers intuitively know that grocery prices have been rising, with data tracked by Savings.com.au showing a trolley load of Woolworths groceries that cost $292 two years ago now costs $315

UK must be prepared for a price shock from the Iran war | Heather Stewart

Donald Trump’s assault on Iran and the deadly conflict it has unleashed is grim and unprecedented – but there is a familiarity to its economic consequences: brace yourself for another price shock.From the Covid shutdown and subsequent reopening to Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine, the global economy has been rocked by one cost surge after another.Meanwhile, the climate crisis means more volatility in the cost of commodities whose production is vulnerable to extreme weather events – coffee, cocoa and olive oil.The reaction to Trump’s Operation Epic Fury in the energy markets was initially relatively restrained. On Friday, though, with the critical strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and reports of production cuts in Kuwait, the dam seemed to break, pushing oil to $90 (£67) a barrel

Oil prices ‘could breach $100 a barrel within days’ amid supply disruption from Iran war

Global oil prices could breach the $100 (£74) a barrel mark within days, and reach $150 a barrel by the end of the month, without a solution ​to the severe disruption in crude flows through the strait ‌of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs has warned.Oil exports via the vital trade route linking the world’s biggest oil producers to buyers in the global market have fallen further than the US investment bank had initially expected after the US-Israeli attack on Iran a little over a week ago.Goldman Sachs had anticipated that flows of crude through the strait would fall to 15% of normal levels but Iran’s effective blockade on tankers passing through the narrow waterway mean that only 10% of oil cargoes that usually transit the trade route have been able to pass.The bank, an influential oil commentator, warned that its analysis of trade flows last week suggested the impact was 17 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russia production after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, which pushed the oil price to $110 a barrel.“Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then,” it said in a note on Friday night

BrewDog sold Highland estate for knockdown price after abandoning its reforestation plans

The self-styled “punk” beer company BrewDog sold its Highland estate for a knockdown price after abandoning its efforts to plant Scotland’s “biggest ever forest” there.BrewDog’s co-founder James Watt claimed its Lost Forest project at Kinrara in the Cairngorms national park would cover a “staggering area” and capture tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 during its lifetime.The brewing company paid £8.5m for the estate in 2020. Watt said it would showcase the company’s efforts to make Brewdog carbon neutral by planting millions of trees, restoring degraded peatland and promoting ecotourism

Why an Iran war inflation shock could wreck global economic recovery

An inflation shock triggered by the US-Israel attack on Iran could wreck a fragile global economic recovery that had been expected to gain momentum this year.With oil and gas prices spiking, despite a pledge from Donald Trump to protect tankers making their way through the crucial strait of Hormuz shipping chokepoint, central bankers and economists have warned that a prolonged conflict could increase retail prices around the world and force them to rip up growth forecasts for this year.On Friday, the International Monetary Fund managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said a 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push up global inflation by 40 basis points and slow global economic growth by 0.1-0.2%

Caffè Nero says growth is ‘steady’ but coffee prices are likely to rise

Caffè Nero will continue opening new shops in the UK and overseas, but has warned coffee prices are likely to keep rising as the war in Iran and higher staffing costs feed through.The family-owned business, which has just bought the 15-store Compass Coffee based in Washington DC to convert to its main brand, is aiming to open as many as 30 UK stores and between 50 and 70 more this year across the 10 other countries it operates in.Gerry Ford, who founded Caffè Nero in 1997 and remains its majority shareholder, said the 1,151-outlet business, which employs 11,000 people around the world, was outperforming its bigger rivals Starbucks and Costa. Starbucks has been closing outlets in North America and Costa’s owner Coca-Cola recently ditched plans for a sale after losses widened and sales fell at established stores.Ford suggested those brands had expanded too rapidly and suffered from multiple management changes