Oil prices ‘could breach $100 a barrel within days’ amid supply disruption from Iran war
Global oil prices could breach the $100 (£74) a barrel mark within days, and reach $150 a barrel by the end of the month, without a solution to the severe disruption in crude flows through the strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs has warned.Oil exports via the vital trade route linking the world’s biggest oil producers to buyers in the global market have fallen further than the US investment bank had initially expected after the US-Israeli attack on Iran a little over a week ago.Goldman Sachs had anticipated that flows of crude through the strait would fall to 15% of normal levels but Iran’s effective blockade on tankers passing through the narrow waterway mean that only 10% of oil cargoes that usually transit the trade route have been able to pass.The bank, an influential oil commentator, warned that its analysis of trade flows last week suggested the impact was 17 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russia production after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, which pushed the oil price to $110 a barrel.“Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then,” it said in a note on Friday night.
“We now also think it’s likely that oil prices, especially for refined products, would exceed the 2008 and 2022 peaks, if strait of Hormuz flows were to remain depressed throughout March,”The international oil benchmark briefly climbed above $120 a barrel in 2022 and reached highs of $145 a barrel in 2008, in both cases leading to severe consequences for the global economy,The oil price pushed above $90 a barrel late last week, amid the highest weekly gains since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago, and included a $10 increase in US crude prices on Friday alone,Oil has risen further on brokerage IG’s weekend markets, where US crude traded at more than $94 a barrel on Sunday,That indicates the oil price will rise once financial markets reopen.
“The grace period given by the market to the Trump administration expired at the end of last week,” according to Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.“A deficit of 20m barrels per day (mb/d) is hitting global [oil market] balances with no sign of relief.To the contrary, President Trump is demanding unconditional surrender, a very unlikely prospect.While observers may have initially thought his disregard for painful oil prices was a bluff, it’s now clear that it isn’t,” he said.Overall, oil prices have rocketed by more than 50% so far this year, having begun 2026 at about $60 a barrel.
Prices had already risen in January and February, before accelerating after the US-Israeli attack on Iran just over a week ago,Fears of a global oil shortfall were compounded late last week by Qatar’s energy minister, who predicted that if the war continued unabated all Gulf energy exporters would be forced to shut down production within weeks and oil would rise to $150 a barrel,Oil storage facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are reaching their limits, meaning major oilfields may need to be shut down if crude cannot be exported via the strait of Hormuz to the global market,Hundreds of tankers attempting to transit the strait have come to a halt after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to “set ablaze” any vessel using the trade route, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas,Seigle warned that exports of oil and gas from the Middle East would not resume “until shipowners, operators and insurers feel sufficiently safe from the threat environment posed by Iranian warships and aircraft, missiles, drones, speedboats and naval mines”.
The White House has suggested countermeasures such as rerouting Saudi crude via the Red Sea, drawing on emergency US crude reserves or extending government-backed insurance to shipping companies.However, Seigle added that this would not be enough to offset the loss of 20m barrels of oil a day “or anywhere in that ballpark”.
Starmer speaks with Trump after president criticises lack of UK support for Iran strikes
Keir Starmer sought to repair fractured relations with Donald Trump over the war with Iran on Sunday, as a Labour backlash gathered pace over Tony Blair’s assertion the UK should have supported the US’s initial airstrikes on Iran.The prime minister spoke to the US president on Sunday afternoon after a barrage of criticism from Trump, who told his UK ally on Saturday that his help was not needed, even as the US continued to use UK bases for strikes against Iran.After a breakdown in relations between Trump and Starmer, which led the US president to declare on social media that “We don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won”, the two world leaders spoke on Sunday to discuss their nations’ military cooperation.A Downing Street spokesperson said the leaders “began by discussing the latest situation in the Middle East and the military cooperation between the UK and US through the use of RAF bases in support of the collective self-defence of partners in the region”.The call came after warnings that Starmer’s initial refusal to allow the US military aircraft to use British airbases had “ruined” the special relationship between the two countries
Labour accuses Badenoch of scoring ‘cheap political points’ over Iran strikes
Labour has accused Kemi Badenoch of scoring “cheap political points” after the Conservative party leader said Keir Starmer was “too scared” to join strikes on Iran.Al Carns, the defence minister, said “serious politics” was required in response to Badenoch’s speech at the party’s spring conference where she criticised the prime minister’s stance on the US-Israel strikes on Iran a week ago.Initially, Starmer did not allow the US to use UK RAF bases for the attack, and did not take part in initial military action against Iran, but then said the RAF would take part in defensive operations. A strike by an Iranian drone hit an aircraft hangar at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.Badenoch told the Conservative’s spring conference in Harrogate, North Yorkshire: “At a time when Britain needs strong and decisive leadership, we have a prime minister who is too afraid of making the wrong decision, too afraid to make any decision at all
‘Like fleeing to Southampton’: was Mandelson escape ‘plot’ just a joke?
Is it really plausible that Peter Mandelson could have hatched a daring plot to escape to the British Virgin Islands? In the capital of Road Town for the last week or so, the question has been on many minds. And even if the UK’s Commons speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, came away with that possibility in mind from a recent visit, very few of them are convinced.“It seemed strange to me,” said one bemused local official who had met Hoyle at a function a few days earlier, “that if you were going to flee, it would be to a British territory. From a logical point of view, you’re still more or less in the UK. It’s like fleeing to Southampton
Police search home of former Labour MP’s husband amid China spying investigation
The husband of former Labour MP Gloria De Piero has confirmed his home was searched on Wednesday as part of a police investigation into an alleged Chinese spying ring.James Robinson, a former aide to the ex-Labour deputy leader Tom Watson, issued a statement confirming the raid on the home he shares with his wife, but said he had not been detained or questioned by police.He said: “I can confirm that police officers visited my home yesterday with a search warrant. I understand their attendance was part of enquiries into those arrested and questioned over matters allegedly relating to China.”Robinson, the founder and director of Woburn Partners and a former media correspondent for the Guardian, added: “I would like to make it absolutely clear that I have neither been detained, arrested nor questioned in connection with this, or any other, matter
Jean Perraton obituary
My mother, Jean Perraton, who has died aged 88, was a town planner, environmental campaigner, author and promoter of outdoor swimming.As a member and later chair of the Cam Valley Forum, Jean was instrumental in the campaign to gain designated bathing water status on the river at Sheep’s Green in Cambridge, which succeeded in 2024. Projects also included the eradication of floating pennywort in the upper Cam.Jean served as president of the River and Lake Swimming Association (2008-13), and published two books, Swimming Against the Stream (2005) and One Musician’s War (2011), based on her father’s wartime letters.Born in Eastbourne, East Sussex, Jean was the elder daughter of Maud (nee Bartley), a teacher, and George Warner, a salesman and gifted violinist
Keir Starmer accused of ‘mimicking Trump’ with Middle East crisis TikTok post
Keir Starmer has been accused of trying to mimic Donald Trump’s social media output after posting a TikTok video about the crisis in the Middle East overlaid with the prime minister’s voice and the Dire Straits song Money for Nothing.The video opens with footage showing Royal Navy Wildcat helicopters flying over his head before cutting to British military jets in action and a drone being destroyed, as Starmer’s voice states the position he has taken on the conflict.“Our number one priority is protecting our people,” says Starmer, overlaid with the sound of electric guitars played by Dire Straits.Starmer refused to join the US and Israeli strikes on Iran but has since authorised “defensive” action.Al Pinkerton, a Liberal Democrat MP, said the choice of song when the military was “crying out” for the government’s defence spending plan seemed “particularly cloth-eared”
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