Labour’s Burnham veto has made a tricky Manchester byelection much harder

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When Labour dignitaries gathered at the Titanic hotel in Liverpool on Friday night, one question loomed above all others: to change captain or not?For many, that question has become even more pressing after Keir Starmer’s allies brutally stopped Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster before it had even begun.There were plausible practical reasons for blocking the Greater Manchester mayor from running in the newly vacant Gorton and Denton seat: not least that the byelection to replace him would be the biggest and most expensive in modern British history.But many Labour MPs, including Burnham acolytes and agnostics alike, view the decision as a clear attempt to save the prime minister as the party heads towards a giant political iceberg.This diverse south-east Manchester seat is home to about 119,000 people, including the left-leaning young professionals of Levenshulme, the white working-class Reform voters of Denton, and a significant Muslim population – 28% of the total – around Rusholme and Gorton.Andrew Gwynne, the former minister who retired on medical grounds this week after an 11-month suspension over leaked WhatsApp messages, won with a 13,413-vote majority in 2024, with Reform UK finishing second.

Although it is a new constituency introduced as a result of boundary changes, it is formed from three seats that have voted Labour for decades,In Gorton, voters have elected a Labour MP since George V was on the throne,Reform UK will run the byelection as a referendum on the government and Starmer in particular,Nigel Farage’s party has an eight-point lead in the national polls on average, while the prime minister’s popularity has tanked since the general election,Four miles west, Labour will be pulled from the left by the Greens and any Gaza-focused candidate, whether that is an independent, a recruit for Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party, or even George Galloway (yes, the 71-year-old has teased another comeback).

“The voters that are pissed off with Labour are liable to go in two directions,” said Prof Rob Ford, of the University of Manchester, pointing to the rise nationally of Reform UK and the Greens.He expects Labour to lose without Burnham’s star power but said it would be tight, with “multiple forces pulling in different directions”.Britain Elects, a polling firm, puts Farage’s party just one point ahead of Labour in Gorton and Denton, but this does not account for a host of nuances, including tactical voting.Labour will hope enough voters are so repulsed by the thought of a Reform MP that they vote red, at the expense of the Greens and Lib Dems (which together accounted for a chunky 17% of the 2024 vote).Polling suggests that “brand Burnham”, plus tactical voting, would put Labour four points ahead of Reform UK in Gorton and Denton, according to Ben Walker, of Britain Elects, who said that nationally a Burnham candidacy brings with it an additional five to seven percentage points.

Local factors make this trickier to decipher: Burnham is very popular in Greater Manchester, but Labour is heavily tarnished in Gorton and Denton as a result of Gwynne’s ill-advised text messages, which implicated several other local councillors, as well as Gaza and other national issues.The other uncertainty is timing.The government has not yet set a date for the byelection but it is expected to be before 7 May, when Labour expects a battering in the devolved elections in Wales and Scotland and in councils across England.Holding it at the same time pushes any byelection loss down the news agenda.Holding it earlier would untether Gorton and Denton from the national picture somewhat.

Neither option looks great.One thing is clear: choosing to contest the seat without Labour’s most popular politician has made an already difficult byelection much harder.
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Labour’s Burnham veto has made a tricky Manchester byelection much harder

When Labour dignitaries gathered at the Titanic hotel in Liverpool on Friday night, one question loomed above all others: to change captain or not?For many, that question has become even more pressing after Keir Starmer’s allies brutally stopped Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster before it had even begun.There were plausible practical reasons for blocking the Greater Manchester mayor from running in the newly vacant Gorton and Denton seat: not least that the byelection to replace him would be the biggest and most expensive in modern British history.But many Labour MPs, including Burnham acolytes and agnostics alike, view the decision as a clear attempt to save the prime minister as the party heads towards a giant political iceberg.This diverse south-east Manchester seat is home to about 119,000 people, including the left-leaning young professionals of Levenshulme, the white working-class Reform voters of Denton, and a significant Muslim population – 28% of the total – around Rusholme and Gorton.Andrew Gwynne, the former minister who retired on medical grounds this week after an 11-month suspension over leaked WhatsApp messages, won with a 13,413-vote majority in 2024, with Reform UK finishing second

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Rebuffed Burnham can return to honing his stature and attack lines

With his return to Westminster seemingly blocked, on Monday Andy Burnham will get back to the two roles to which he has devoted his time in recent years: being mayor of Greater Manchester and annoying Keir Starmer.The second is very much a part-time and unofficial role, but it is noticeable how Burnham manages to edge back into the media spotlight whenever the leader of his party is having a tough time.In 2021, when Starmer, as leader of the opposition, was suffering under Boris Johnson’s short-lived if powerful “vaccine bounce” in the polls, Burnham spoke at so many fringe events at the party’s annual conference that even his aides lost count.Burnham’s self-stated role at the gathering in Brighton, 250 miles from his mayoral base, was to offer a range of policy ideas and also – to the deep frustration of those around Starmer – remind anyone listening he was a Labour official actually exercising power.Fast forward to last autumn’s conference, and Burnham was again seemingly ubiquitous

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Sajid Javid calls on Nigel Farage to apologise for alleged schoolboy racism

The former Tory cabinet member Sajid Javid has called on Nigel Farage to apologise for alleged racist comments as a schoolboy.It came after a Guardian investigation found more than 30 of Farage’s contemporaries at Dulwich college have accused the Reform UK leader of racist and antisemitic bullying.Farage has denied “directly” targeting anyone with racist or antisemitic abuse or having the “intent” to hurt anyone. This month, he dismissed the allegations as “complete made-up fantasies” based on political motivation.In a wide-ranging interview with the Sunday Times magazine, Javid, who became the first home secretary from an minority ethnic background in 2018, said Farage’s remarks were “clearly the wrong thing to say”, even if they were banter to him

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Starmer had no good options on Burnham – but blocking him is a big risk

It is a sign that the political deck of cards is stacked against you when the only good hand is one that was never really going to be dealt. And so it was with Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham.In an ideal world for the prime minister, Andrew Gwynne’s announcement that he was stepping down from his Gorton and Denton seat would have been followed by Burnham saying he already had a job as Greater Manchester mayor and would sit this one out, thanks very much.But given the inevitably of Burnham taking up a rare chance to get back into Westminster politics, Starmer was faced instead with two fairly terrible choices: block him, and be accused of partisan control-freakery; or allow the candidacy and put the matter in the hands of fate.It is worth noting that if Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) had granted Burnham his wish, this would have been just the first step in the process: the mayor would have had to get the local party’s backing and actually win the seat before arriving in parliament as a shiny would-be heir apparent

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Labour must avoid ‘psychodrama’, says Mahmood, as NEC meets to decide if Burnham can stand

Labour must do all it can to avoid a “psychodrama” over Andy Burnham’s possible return to parliament, Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, has said.Mahmood is chair of Labour’s national executive committee (NEC), which was due to meet later on Sunday to decide whether Burnham should be allowed to seek selection for the Gorton and Denton byelection, which would involve him giving up his Greater Manchester mayoralty.Speaking to Sky News, Mahmood said her role as chair meant she could not comment on whether it was a good idea for Burnham to seek to return as an MP, widely seen as a route for him to challenge Keir Starmer as prime minister.But she said voters would not tolerate a long period of turmoil and internal struggle from the government, as happened under the Conservatives, who cycled through five prime ministers in six years.“Everyone has to make their own decisions

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Meet ‘Amelia’: the AI-generated British schoolgirl who is a far-right social media star

In certain corners of the internet, on niche news feeds and algorithms, an AI-generated British schoolgirl has emerged as something of a phenomenon.Her name is Amelia, a purple-haired “goth girl” who proudly carries a mini union flag and appears to have a penchant for racism.If you are unfamiliar with Amelia, the chances are you will soon encounter one viral meme or another inspired by her on Facebook or X, where her reputation is growing.Videos of Amelia typically feature her walking through London, or the House of Commons, declaring her love for England and warning of the dangers of “militant Muslims” or “third-world migrants”. In one clip she is harangued by bearded man in Islamic attire for eating a pork sausage