US small businesses are doing fine. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers

A picture


Regardless of all the challenges they face, small businesses have been doing pretty well in this country across the board.Don’t believe me? Take a look at some of the latest numbers.For more than 50 years, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) has published a monthly report of small-business economic trends, based on a random sample of the organization’s approximately 300,000 member firms.This survey is one of the longest and most consistent of any I follow, using the same questionnaire since 1973.So where do things stand?Last year ended with a second consecutive monthly uptick in small-business optimism, with small-business owners anticipating that economic conditions would remain generally favorable going into 2026.

Business owners reported that their cost pressures moderated, employment challenges eased (for most) and capital investments picked up.“The December data also delivered good news on a major 2025 pain point, with a welcome improvement in uncertainty,” reported the study’s economists.Fiserv’s Small Business Index, which aggregates consumer spending activity from point-of-sale transaction data across some 2m US small firms, highlighted that monthly sales rose over the prior month in December.“December’s sales gains show the resilience of small businesses during a competitive holiday season,” said Prasanna Dhore, chief data officer at Fiserv.“Consumers focused on essentials and made selective discretionary purchases, driven by ongoing cost pressures.

These patterns, resulting in modest monthly sales growth, highlight how small businesses continue to adjust in a challenging economic climate.”Comerica Bank’s Small Business Pulse Index, a survey of more than 1,000 small-business owners across the US, found 80% of respondents in mid-November were “somewhat or very confident” about their business outlook for the next 12 months, with 79% anticipating revenue growth in 2026 – and an average projected increase of 7.9%.Technology and construction firms led in optimism, while sole proprietors and retail businesses showed more caution.Some 57% of the businesses in the survey said they were planning to make capital expenditures, and more than half said that recent Federal Reserve rate cuts had positively affected their business.

Intuit, the maker of QuickBooks, publishes its own monthly Small Business Index, drawn from transactions across more than 420,000 small businesses in its database.The company’s January numbers show that small-business employment increased modestly, with upticks in eight of 12 industry sectors.The company also reported that small-business employment increased in all eight US regions and that hiring increased in 13 of 20 states tracked.The index also showed reported revenue was up in all US regions compared with November.This doesn’t mean that everyone’s doing great.

We live in a big country.There are 33m small businesses.We all have different challenges.The NFIB reports that members in the agricultural industry are struggling with tariffs and dramatically higher costs, some retailers are seeing slower sales (and increased competition from big box stores), many truckers are struggling with increased regulations and some service firms are struggling to convince consumers to spend money when other prices remain high.Comerica says small businesses are still very much concerned with inflation, tariffs and regulations, with “most expecting tariff impacts to persist or worsen in 2026”.

Among the small businesses that I work for, finding talent remains a persistent issue.And the rising cost of healthcare – a critical employee benefit – is creating huge pressures, for both companies and their employees.But no one said that running your own business was easy.If it were, more people would be doing it.And more of the people who choose to be business owners would stay in business longer than just a few years.

But, for the most part, US small businesses fared pretty well in 2025, and a significant majority are optimistic about the coming year.Maybe that’s the glass-is-half-full attitude of the American entrepreneur.We’ll see.
recentSee all
A picture

Gold soars past $5,100 an ounce, silver hits new record on tariff and US shutdown fears – as it happened

Wall Street stocks have risen, at the start of a week of big tech earnings and a closely watched US Federal Reserve policy decision (no change in interest rates is expected).The Dow Jones rose by more than 200 points, or 0.45%, the S&P 500 gained 27 points, up 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed more than 50 points, or 0.2%

A picture

UK’s biggest private hospital provider Spire in talks on sale to private equity

The UK’s biggest private hospital provider, Spire Healthcare, is in talks about a sale to private equity that could lead to it being delisted from the London Stock Exchange.The company, which owns the Claremont hospital in Sheffield and St Anthony’s hospital in south London, said on Monday that Bridgepoint Advisers and Triton Investments Advisers were “amongst the parties” with which it was in talks.Its shares jumped 18%, making Spire the top riser on the FTSE 250 on Monday and valuing the company at nearly £850m.Spire said talks were at an early stage, adding: “There can be no certainty that any offer will be made.”It first announced a strategic review of its operations in September, saying it was in discussions with several parties to explore options including a potential sale of the business

A picture

EU launches inquiry into X over sexually explicit images made by Grok AI

The European Commission has launched an investigation into Elon Musk’s X over the production of sexually explicit images and the spreading of possible child sexual abuse material by the platform’s AI chatbot, Grok.The formal inquiry, launched on Monday, also extends an investigation into X’s recommender systems, algorithms that help users discover new content.Grok has sparked international outrage by allowing users to digitally strip women and children and put them into provocative poses. Grok AI generated about 3m sexualised images in less than two weeks, including 23,000 that appeared to depict children, according to researchers at the Center for Countering Digital Hate.The commission said its investigation would “assess whether the company properly assessed and mitigated risks” stemming from Grok’s functionalities in the EU, including risks on the sharing of illegal content such as manipulated sexually explicit images and “content that may amount to” child sexual abuse material

A picture

Georgia leads push to ban datatcenters used to power America’s AI boom

Lawmakers in several states are exploring passing laws that would put statewide bans in place on building new datacenters as the issue of the power-hungry facilities has moved to the center of economic and environmental concerns in the US.In Georgia a state lawmaker has introduced a bill proposing what could become the first statewide moratorium on new datacenters in America. The bill is one of at least three statewide moratoriums on datacenters introduced in state legislatures in the last week as Maryland and Oklahoma lawmakers are also considering similar measures.But it is Georgia that is quickly becoming ground zero in the fight against untrammelled growth of datacenters – which are notorious for using huge amounts of energy and water – as they power the emerging industry of artificial intelligence.The Georgia bill seeks to halt all such projects until March of next year “to allow state, county and municipal-level officials time to set necessary policies for regulating datacenters … which permanently alter the landscape of our state”, said bill sponsor state Democratic legislator Ruwa Romman

A picture

Ruud makes timely exit from Australian Open as Shelton storms into last eight

Casper Ruud suffered a frustrating 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 defeat to Ben ­Shelton in the fourth round of the Australian Open on Monday night, but the silver lining of the three-time grand slam finalist’s loss is that he will finally be able to return home.Ruud, the 12th seed, has had one eye on events back home during his time in Melbourne owing to the fact that his wife, Maria, is heavily pregnant with their first child and is due to give birth this weekend. Ruud had repeatedly stated that he would withdraw and immediately begin the long journey home to Norway if she went into labour during the tournament.Ruud said last week: “She’s due later in the tournament, so we’ll see. It’s not until the final weekend of the tournament, the due date

A picture

Always in reserve: Dawson’s moment beckons at T20 World Cup after decade ‘on call’ for England

Liam Dawson watched as England won two World Cups and reached the final in another but his global tournament debut will surely come against Nepal on 8 FebruaryLiam Dawson has been around for England’s finest white-ball moments in the last decade. He was an uncapped inclusion in the 2016 World T20 touring party, when Eoin Morgan’s fresh-faced team were denied right at the end by Carlos Brathwaite’s remember-the-name sixes. He was there as a squad member on that golden day at Lord’s in 2019, too, and a travelling reserve when England won the T20 World Cup in Australia three years later.But, remarkably, the 35-year-old is still waiting for his debut at a global tournament. It’s been an international career spent on call, limited to 33 appearances across formats, his left-arm spin and handy batting there to use in case of emergency