What a Gorton byelection win would mean for Reform, Greens and Labour
The Gorton and Denton byelection is the biggest electoral test yet for Keir Starmer before what are expected to be disastrous results for Labour in the May local elections.Polls put the race in a three-way dead heat, making it nearly impossible to call.The vote is particularly symbolic because of the threat Labour faces from Reform UK and the Green party in a once safe seat.Should Labour lose, it will put the spotlight back on Starmer’s decision to block Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, from contesting the seat.There are big implications for Starmer’s premiership, whatever the result, but also for the wider political landscape.
Here’s what it could mean,A win for Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the biggest sign yet that Nigel Farage’s poll lead represents real voter intentions rather than being merely a symbol of dissatisfaction with the government,Goodwin rarely talks about Reform’s politics or local issues and has repeatedly made the fight a referendum on Starmer’s leadership,Gorton and Denton is 440th on the Reform target list, according to an insider,The party won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection almost a year ago by just six votes – a victory here would suggest it is sustaining momentum.
Reform said it expected at least 1,000 activists to get out the vote – particularly people who don’t usually vote, who have been key to delivering other byelection victories,Goodwin is a divisive, hyper-online candidate who has family roots in Manchester but spent most of his adult years in the south-east of England,He is arguably more of a Marmite character than Sarah Pochin, who ran in Runcorn, despite her share of controversies since she was elected,A Reform victory would also put paid to the argument advanced by Labour strategists that progressives will unite to defeat Reform when they know how to vote tactically,There would be vicious recriminations between Labour and the Greens.
The latter may well be able to argue if they come second that it was Labour who split the progressive vote and stopped a Green victory.Should Labour come third, it is hard to see how Starmer survives much longer as prime minister when he cannot unite progressives against candidates like Goodwin.A Green victory might be the most catastrophic result for Starmer’s leadership and would show the Greens are a serious progressive force, not a protest vote.It would also show that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance and would make MPs standing in urban seats fearful of the Green threat, which is likely to be compounded by local election results in London.Polls and betting markets repeatedly put the Greens ahead and a win would suggest Hannah Spencer’s enthusiastic campaign means they could capitalise on an increase in disillusioned progressive voters.
The Green coalition could pull in former Labour voters who want to deliver Starmer a kicking, many but not all of them from the area’s large Muslim community, as well as students and young professionals in Levenshulme.Labour attacks on the Greens have been vicious, both on its drug policy, claiming the party is willing to sell legalised drugs to teenagers, and on its defence policy, referring to the party as “Putin’s useful idiots”.The Greens have repeatedly turned out large swathes of activists and have had to work the seat from a base of zero.The party developed a canvassing app and up to 1,000 activists routinely turn up on weekends.Handwritten letters have gone out to every voter in the constituency, completed by 300 volunteers.
Activists have campaigned outside mosques during prayer times, focusing on Labour’s record on Gaza, and have distributed leaflets in several languages.Aspects of the Greens’ campaign have raised eyebrows, including using pictures of Starmer meeting the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, in adverts aimed at the area’s Muslim community.The strength of the Green campaign has allowed the party to argue it is Labour that risks splitting the vote and letting in the Reform candidate.If Labour is pushed into third place, there would be recriminations for Starmer.But if Reform wins and the Greens come second, that would cause angst for the progressive left about which party is the best challenger to the right.
Labour activists have been unusually confident about their prospects of holding the seat since the start of the campaign.Campaigners normally undersell when they are the incumbents – even parties that believe they can win manage expectations and describe how close the race is.MPs and campaigners who have visited Gorton and Denton have all expressed surprise at how well the Labour vote is holding up.Starmer visited the seat this week.His presence is not a vote-winning tactic – far from it – so the visit was probably because of rising confidence that Labour can win.
Labour has managed to energise its activist base, despite polling showing a broad dissatisfaction with the government.The ban on Burnham’s candidacy was said by some to be likely to dissuade activists, but that hasn’t happened – Labour has had the most activists in its history register to campaign to get the vote out on Thursday.Starmer allies who want the prime minister to take a more aggressively progressive position have been happy with how Starmer has drawn dividing lines with Reform, attacking Goodwin’s comments on whether people from minority ethnic backgrounds can be truly British.One senior Labour source said it was an “electoral training ground for a new approach of making values-led arguments for a diverse and tolerant society”.There are some on the left of the party who will be uncomfortable with how hard Labour has targeted the Greens – particularly on drugs policy.
Labour knows where its voters live and on polling day relentlessly targets them to get them out to vote – knocking on the same doors four or five times until they are certain its supporters have made it to the polling stations.If Labour wins, it will be this campaigning and people power that are likely to have been key.If Angeliki Stogia wins, Starmer is likely to breathe a sigh of relief that Labour is holding its progressive coalition together in the face of a Reform threat, and that Reform’s momentum may have peaked.The prime minister would also swerve the possibility of another threat to his leadership.That would probably be an overly optimistic assessment.
Indeed, if the election has barely 1,000 votes between the top three parties, then each would be wise not to overanalyse the results – but that won’t stop anyone.
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The US men’s hockey team at the State of the Union showed proximity to Trump is never neutral
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