One in five UK hospitality businesses fear collapse as costs surge
One in five hospitality businesses fear collapse in the next 12 months, according to an industry-wide survey that comes days before rises in tax and employment costs kick in.From Wednesday, many pub, restaurant and hotel companies face the prospect of a higher bill for business rates paid to their local authority, while an increase in minimum wage thresholds takes effect on the same day.The impending cost crunch has left the sector facing a crisis in confidence and warning of multiple business failures unless the burden is “dramatically reduced”.One in five of the survey respondents, who between them operate more than 20,000 venues, said their businesses were at risk of failing in the next 12 months.Almost half (44%) were pessimistic, while 17% were operating at a loss and 2% believed their businesses were already unviable, according to data shared with the Guardian by sector analysts CGA by NIQ.
The mood is likely to have worsened since the survey was performed in February, after turmoil in the energy markets following the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel,Surging oil and gas costs are likely to send energy bills soaring for businesses that aren’t on fixed-term contracts,The cost of ingredients, not to mention the extra strain on consumers’ wallets, presents further danger on top of the policy changes,But the industry’s immediate focus is on the policy changes that come into effect on 1 April,Survey respondents put increased employment costs at the top of their list of worries, followed by business rates and inflation in the cost of food and drink.
UKHospitality, which commissioned the survey alongside trade bodies from the pubs sector, said the increase in the national living wage and national minimum wage would result in an extra £1,4bn in costs for the sector,The organisation said it could not provide an estimate of the overall cost of business rates changes, but it expected most of its members would pay more,It believed the average hotel in England would pay £28,900 more this year (up 30%), while the average restaurant would face a 15% increase worth £1,800,Both the wage and business rates increases are the result of measures announced in the chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget in November.
After a backlash, relief schemes have been put in place to cap the level of increases, while pubs will get a 15% discount and a two-year freeze.“Our local pubs, restaurants and hotels are finding it more and more difficult to make ends meet, and even more cost increases arriving this week will make that challenge even harder,” said UKHospitality, in a joint statement with the British Beer and Pub Association, the British Institute of Innkeeping and Hospitality Ulster.“Too many businesses are simply not making any money, and it’s because the sector’s cost burden is so high.The only result is lost jobs and business closures, which ultimately hurts communities and high streets.“The business rates support for pubs was essential and welcome, but there are many policies undermining government’s objectives to grow the economy and get more people back into work.
“Hospitality can be a driving force of growth and jobs, but only if its costs of doing business are dramatically reduced.The sector wants to work with government to achieve that.”
Brent crude hits $116 a barrel as Trump threatens to ‘blow up’ Iran’s oil wells and export hub
The price of oil rose sharply to $116 a barrel on Monday as Donald Trump threatened to “blow up” and “completely obliterate” Iranian electricity plants, oil wells and its export hub Kharg Island if it did not agree to a deal.Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose by 1.6% on Monday after Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that if a deal was not agreed and the strait of Hormuz was not reopened, the US would take further action.He wrote: “We will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched’ …“This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror’.”The US president threatened to seize the Iranian export hub of Kharg Island in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday
FCA to release details of UK car finance scandal compensation scheme
Millions of drivers will discover how much can they claim over the car finance scandal on Monday, as the City regulator sets out the final terms of its compensation scheme.The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will release the details of its redress programme for 14m motor finance agreements after 4.30pm, ensuring that the information comes out after stock markets close for trading.Regulators want to avoid large price fluctuations in the share prices of the biggest stock market-listed car loan providers, including Lloyds Banking Group, Santander, Barclays, and the specialist lender Close Brothers.The companies have been lobbying against the FCA’s proposals, which were put out for consultation in the final months of 2025, arguing that they amounted to a too-generous compensation bill for drivers
‘Soon publishers won’t stand a chance’: literary world in struggle to detect AI-written books
Recently, the literary agent Kate Nash started noticing that the submission letters she was receiving from authors were becoming more thorough – albeit also more formulaic.“I took it as a rise in diligence,” she said. “I thought it was a good thing.”But then she had what she described as her eureka moment: the letter with the AI prompt right at the top. “It read: ‘Rewrite my query letter for Kate Nash including a comp to a writer she represents,’” she said
‘Our assumptions are broken’: how fraudulent church data revealed AI’s threat to polling
If you had been keeping tabs on the news about church attendance in Britain lately, you would be forgiven for thinking the country was in the midst of a Christian revival.Stories of swelling congregations, filled with young people returning to the flock, spurred on by everything from social media to a rise in bible sales appeared to be confirmed by a 2024 report from the Bible Society.Based on data collected by a YouGov survey, it claimed church attendance was increasing in England and Wales. The findings drove headlines, and the narrative was established.There was just one problem – the survey turned out to be based on “fraudulent” data and has been withdrawn
F1 must find answers to safety crisis after Bearman’s escape but there are no easy fixes | Giles Richards
Oliver Bearman emerging unhurt from a huge accident at the Japanese Grand Prix was considered a lucky escape. Formula One must think it is catching a break given there is a full month to work out how best to mitigate against it happening again. It is going to need every minute of that time given the complexity of the problem.Bearman’s Haas car was travelling at 307kmh (191mph) when he was forced to veer off track as he came up behind the relatively slow-moving Alpine of Franco Colapinto. The closing speed between the two cars was 50kmh, a frightening pace
Worcestershire overseas signing leaves one-day final early to catch flight to England
Worcestershire’s new overseas signing has arrived under a cloud after leaving a one-day final in South Africa in order to catch his flight to England. Beyers Swanepoel was playing for Lions against Titans on Sunday when, according to a report by Times Live, he set off for the airport “around the 43rd over” of the second innings without informing his teammates as to why. It was widely assumed he had picked up an injury.The all-rounder had bowled his full allocation of 10 overs, but because there was no injury, Lions were denied a substitute fielder for the final stages of the match. Titans went on to chase down the target with a ball to spare
Families hardest hit by energy crisis could be given funds dispensed by councils in England
Brent crude rises after Trump says he wants to ‘take the oil’ in Iran and Yemeni Houthis launch second attack on Israel – as it happened
Apple subsidiary fined by UK government over Moscow sanctions breach
How Meta’s victim-blaming failed to sway jurors in landmark social media addiction trial
Cheltenham pulls plug on rest of season to fix home-straight drainage problems
UConn’s thrilling win over Duke proved that blue-blood clashes are alive and well