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How the UAE’s decision to leave Opec could recast the Middle East

about 18 hours ago
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The United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit.But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding.But the timing and unilateral nature of the UAE decision shows how other intra-Gulf disputes over how to respond to the Iran war could recast the Middle East.The defection is, of course, a blow to Saudi Arabia’s prestige, since it positions the UAE as the Gulf state closest to Donald Trump, a long-term critic of Opec, and weakens the Saudis’ ability to manage the price of oil.

The announcement, without any prior consultation, came as the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, was meeting in an emergency session in Jeddah, the first time it had done so since the Iran attacks,Ever since the conflict with Iran started the UAE, the Gulf state politically closest to Israel and most hostile to Tehran, has been privately pushing Saudi Arabia and Qatar to launch joint counterattacks against Iran,The UAE was the Gulf state most heavily assaulted by Iran, fending off more than 2,200 drones and missiles, in part a function of its geographical proximity,Despite briefings that Saudi Arabia was urging the US to defeat Iran, no public GCC consensus was formed to take a step that could be seen as highly risky, since it could be interpreted not only as self-defence but as siding with Israel,Unable to build the political solidarity it demanded, the UAE has decided to abandon the economic solidarity of the oil producers’ club and to go it alone.

The state-run firm Adnoc says it will be able to boost production from 3,4m barrels a day before the start of the Iran war to 5m barrels by 2027,After the closure of the strait of Hormuz, the country’s production slumped 44% to 1,9m in March, and its capacity to increase production is contested,Overall, the Iran war wiped out 7.

88m barrels a day of Opec’s production in March, resulting in a 27% fall to 20.79m barrels a day that month, the biggest supply collapse for the producers’ group in recent decades.Dr Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, the president of the Dubai-based Emirates Policy Center, cast the decision as an act of self-interest.“In effect, the UAE is redefining its role from a producer within a bloc to a balancing producer that contributes to market stability through its ability to act,” she said.“While this move may gradually weaken Opec’s cohesion, it simultaneously strengthens the UAE’s position as an actor capable of directly influencing global supply dynamics.

”Determined to diversify, the UAE has been much more dependent on US good will than has Saudi Arabia.The decision to quit Opec may indeed cement the country as Trump’s diplomatic favourite, a status that could have investment consequences for the emirates.The UAE has already been wielding its influence.Earlier this month it recalled $3.5bn deposits from Pakistan, a fifth of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, in an indication of its displeasure with Pakistan’s neutrality over Iran, forcing Saudi Arabia to step in to help Pakistan.

At the same time, in the Horn of Africa, the UAE had been pursuing a largely commercially driven foreign policy that puts it directly at odds with Riyadh.Those tensions may resurface, depending on how the Saudis respond.Warnings about the UAE’s frustration with the Gulf’s collective political response to Iran’s “premeditated attack” have been voiced repeatedly by Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president.On Monday, Gargash said the GCC – the political bloc made up of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait – was at its lowest ebb.“Unfortunately, the GCC’s position is the weakest in history, considering the nature of the attack and the threat it poses to everyone.

”Hinting at antagonism to Turkey and possibly Pakistan, he said: “We cannot allow anyone outside the Gulf region to dictate our security priorities.These missiles will not be aimed at them tomorrow; they will be aimed at us.“Therefore, there must be a Gulf vision, policy and representation at the national level, and I hope at the collective level as well.National defence is very important but we must also say that Gulf solidarity was not up to the task.”Ahead of the debate in the Gulf states over the future of the US security guarantee, Gargash has staked his ground, insisting Iran remains the great strategic threat – not Israel – and America is still required in the region.

“Today the American role in the region has become more important, not less, because the American role isn’t just about military facilities or anything like that.The American role is a defence system.The American role is political support.The American role is economic and financial engagement.”By leaving Opec, the UAE will hope to have guaranteed that US engagement.

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The truth about cooking oils: 14 essential facts for healthier, cheaper meals

From avocado to hemp, extra virgin olive and rapeseed, the shops are packed with various oils. But what is worth spending money on? And are any of them actually better for you? The world of cooking oils is confusing. I keep spotting new ones on supermarket shelves, trumpeting their health claims. Cold-pressed avocado oil, extra virgin macadamia oil, organic coconut oil, premium hemp seed oil … Even familiar oils are mired in controversy. Is it OK to cook with olive oil? Should you avoid seed oils? Meanwhile, prices keep rising – earlier this month, Walter Zanre, the CEO of Filippo Berio UK, said supermarkets were “taking the mickey” out of customers over olive oil pricing

3 days ago
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The surprising boom in blouge wine: ‘It’s for 5pm, in the sun’

Twenty years ago, a winery could do well selling one white and two reds, says Konrad Pixner, a northern Italian winemaker who set up his vineyard, Domaine de L’Accent, in Languedoc, France, in 2019. But today, importers and bars always ask: “Do you have something new?” So up in the hills, surrounded by deep gorges and limestone plateaus, Pixner is constantly experimenting.After a good harvest in 2023, Pixner walked into the shed he shares with other winemakers at 4am to find that his biggest vat of white wine, pressed from carignan blanc grapes, had overflowed during fermentation. He had run out of space, so he quickly “pumped the white juice into the tank where whole bunches of carignan noir were,” he says, and left them to ferment for 10 days together. In contrast to rosé, made from red grapes left for a short time with their skins on before being pressed, he created “blouge” – a light, fresh wine blended from white and red grapes that’s best served chilled

3 days ago
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How to make the perfect custard creams – recipe | Felicity Cloake's How to make the perfect …

Prue Leith reckons the custard cream is “arguably Britain’s most iconic biscuit” – and, certainly, we’ve been dunking this fern-patterned treat in our tea for well over a century, with early advertisements for this “delicious biscuit” placing it, perhaps aspirationally, in the “fancy” category. By 1920, Bermondsey baking behemoth Peek Frean could confidently declare the custard cream “far and away the most popular of all the cream sandwich biscuits”, a status only slightly dented by the time I was at school about seven decades later, when it sat just below its contemporary, the chocolate bourbon, in the playtime snack ratings.Despite my love of both custard and cookies, however, I’ve always found this particular custard-flavoured product a bit sugary and dull. As historian Lizzie Collingham explains in her magisterial book, The Biscuit: The History of a Very British Indulgence, it combines two early industrial foodstuffs, namely custard powder and machine-made biscuits, and though they may have been created in a factory, I think they’re much better made at home.Let’s be honest, the biscuit isn’t really the point of the packet variety – as children, we’d prise them open to scrape out the sugary filling, like bears sucking honey from a split log – but when you bake them yourself, it can be

3 days ago
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Impala, London W1: ‘Shamelessly, brilliantly too much’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants

Impala is like no restaurant I’ve ever been to, yet it somehow has echoes of almost all of themLate last month, Impala drove into Soho already flaming hot in the hype stakes: this was a sizzling booking to brag about even before executive chef and co-founder Meedu Saad had turned on the stoves. Impala, after all, is a Super 8 restaurant, the group that has, among others, Tomos Parry’s Brat in Shoreditch, which has been constantly, unfalteringly brilliant since 2018. It also runs Parry’s second baby, Mountain, which is likewise wonderful; sometimes weird, yes, but always wonderful. Long before that, back in 2016, they opened Kiln, the famed live-fire Thai counter hangout that cheffy boys in beanies have tried and failed to emulate all over Britain, while Super 8’s beginnings were with the boundary-pushing and much-loved Smoking Goat. That is nothing less than a litany of solid-gold bangers, and now they’ve unleashed Impala by Saad, the former head chef at Kiln

3 days ago
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Ifrah F Ahmed’s debut cookbook is a love letter to Somali cuisine, history and people

On a video call from Brooklyn, between stops on her book tour, Ifrah F Ahmed is drinking ginger-root tea. The smell transports her to her childhood kitchen, where her mother often baked aromatic cardamom cake.“That’s a core childhood memory for me,” she said.For Ahmed, food isn’t just about sustenance. It is memory, inheritance and, perhaps most importantly, a record: “Somali history on a plate,” as she puts it

4 days ago
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Lure of being a social media chef means youngsters forgoing classic training, Michelin star cook warns

Scroll through your timeline of choice and it won’t be long until you land on a video posted by a social media chef trying to send their recipes viral.Such is the popularity of cooking videos that everyone from Michelin star masters to self-taught beginners like Brooklyn Beckham are setting up tripods on their kitchen counters to capture the perfect cut, cuisson or crust on their culinary creations.But the lure of social media could, according to some industry figures,be causing young cooks forgo the formal training of a catering college.Will Murray, who worked at the double Michelin-starred restaurant Dinner by Heston before opening his own critically acclaimed venue, Fallow, said social media cooking videos sometimes stretch the boundaries of what is possible.“Social media has helped people get into cooking

4 days ago
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AstraZeneca investing £300m in UK life sciences, Starmer announces; UK asks refineries to maximise jet fuel supply – business live

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Barclay brothers avoid bankruptcy after deal with HSBC over £143m debt

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Meta found in breach of EU law for failing to keep children off platforms

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Meet the AI jailbreakers: ‘I see the worst things humanity has produced’

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The Spin | Knight-Stokes Cup sets up much-needed platform for state school cricket

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Luka Dončić and the manosphere: why the scrutiny of his body never ends

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