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Global government debt on course to hit 100% of GDP by 2029, IMF warns

about 11 hours ago
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Government debt across the world is on course to hit 100% of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029, according to analysis by the International Monetary Fund, the highest level since the aftermath of the second world war.In its Fiscal Monitor report, the IMF said aggregate government debt had risen more rapidly than expected before the Covid pandemic, when policymakers stepped into protect citizens and bail out hard-hit businesses.It urged governments to switch spending to growth-friendly areas such as infrastructure and education to help bolster the world economy and make debts more sustainable.A 100% global debt-to-GDP ratio would be the highest since 1948, when the world’s large economies had been devastated by six years of war and the costs of rebuilding their ravaged countries.The report named the UK as among the G20 countries whose ratio would peak above 100% of GDP on the IMF’s definition in the coming years – alongside France, Japan, Canada, China and the US.

The IMF said there were still upward pressures on spending in many countries – alongside a reluctance to impose tax rises on sceptical voters.“Looming expenditures on defence, natural disasters, disruptive technologies, demographics, and development add to public spending demands.All these pressures and demands come together with sharp political red lines against tax increases and diminished public awareness of fiscal limits,” it said.The IMF argued that emerging economies in particular could struggle to manage their debt burdens – even with much lower debt-to-GDP ratios than their developing country peers.“Many emerging markets and low-income countries face tougher fiscal challenges, despite their relatively low debt,” it said.

The IMF added that as many as 55 countries were experiencing debt distress, or at high risk of distress, despite having debt-to-GDP ratios below 60%.Campaigners have called for the IMF to play a greater role in tackling unsustainable debt, arguing that the current debt restructuring process, known as the Common Framework, is too slow and cumbersome, as well as hard to qualify for.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionFor the UK, the IMF forecasted total public debt would peak at 105.9% of GDP in 2029, before declining slightly, to 105.4% in 2030.

After the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, changed her fiscal rules last year, she now targets a different definition of debt.At a press briefing in Washington on Tuesday, where policymakers have gathered for the IMF’s annual meetings, its deputy director for monetary and capital markets, Athanasios Vamvakidis, said Britain was in the sights of bond market investors.“Clearly markets are concerned about the UK economy, and we have seen more volatility in the UK compared to other advanced economies,” he said.
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Cauliflower risotto and sausages with squash and beans: Sophie Wyburd’s recipes for autumn warmers

I am the scrooge who relishes the end of summer, and who welcomes the darker evenings with open arms. After patiently waiting for tomatoes and aubergines to be done with their performance, autumn brings its own bounty of vegetables back into play, with squash, cauliflower and dark, leafy greens being some of my favourites. They’re ideal for loading into comforting dishes to hunker down with, and lend even the most indulgent meals a bit of goodness.Prep 10 min Cook 1 hr 10 min Serves 47 tbsp olive oil 1 onion, peeled and finely chopped 2 garlic cloves, peeled and finely chopped15g rosemary, finely chopped8 good-quality pork sausages 600g butternut squash, peeled, deseeded and cut into 3cm chunks 400ml chicken stock 2 560g jars of butter beans 70g sourdough breadcrumbs Salt and black pepper 150g cavolo nero 40g parmesan Finely grated zest of 1 lemon, plus the juice of half, and optional lemon wedges to serveOver a medium flame, heat three tablespoons of the oil in a large, shallow casserole dish for which you have a lid. Tip in the chopped onion and cook, stirring, for 15 minutes, until softened

3 days ago
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How to make cinnamon buns – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass

There are few joys quite like a sticky bun. As soft and sweet as an edible pillow, they’re a lovely thing to sink into with a cup of coffee and, though they look impressive, they’re also unexpectedly easy to make at home. This Scandinavian version is cinnamon flavoured, but feel free to change the seasoning to suit your palate.Prep 30 min Rest 1 hr+Cook 25 min Makes 71 tsp ground cardamom seeds (from about 25 pods; see step 1)300ml whole milk 50g butter, roughly cubed425g plain flour 60g caster sugar ¼ tsp fine salt 7g fast-action/instant yeast 1 egg Oil, for greasingFor the filling75g butter, softened50g dark brown sugar 2 tsp cinnamon ½ tsp saltTo finish1 egg, lightly beaten Demerara or granulated sugarGround cardamom is fairly easy to find these days, but if you don’t mind a bit of fiddly work, you should get a teaspoon or so of powder from the ground seeds of about 25 pods. Alternatively, for a milder flavour, use the seeds whole and strain them out of the milk later

3 days ago
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Punk Royale, London W1: ‘Someone shoved mystery slop in my mouth’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants

Punk Royale, from Stockholm, has landed in London promising, or rather threatening, that their rowdy, immersive, 20-course fine-dining experience will destroy all puny British perceptions of posh food. It’s a huge claim from these Swedish punks. Indeed, nearly 50 years after the UK invented punk, with the Sex Pistols effing and jeffing on live TV and provoking a national meltdown, here we have some folk with mullets and Roxette CDs slopping “bumps” of caviar on to my hand shortly after beckoning me into a shoddily decorated, fusty-smelling dining room in Mayfair. It’s all a bit student house and needs a good visit from Mr Sheen. That bump, one supposes, is a playful twist on taking cocaine at a grotty afterparty

4 days ago
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Enjoying my meat that’s low on miles | Letter

I’m glad that the impact of ultra‑processed food on the climate is being investigated. Not only is it bad for our health but it also requires ingredients to be transported around the world (The hidden cost of ultra-processed foods on the environment: ‘The whole industry should pay’, theguardian.com, 8 October).Meat and dairy are often singled out as foods detrimental to the environment. While it’s laudable to encourage people to reduce their intake of animal-based foods and eat more vegetables, nuts and grains, many of these have also to be transported great distances and so contribute to increased CO2 levels

5 days ago
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‘It’s really good for the staff’: how restaurants adapt to customers drinking less

Alcohol is an important source of revenue for many restaurants. With consumption on the decline, venues could be left in a precarious positionGet our weekend culture and lifestyle emailUntil relatively recently, boozing on was considered a vital part of dining out. These days, less so. Australian drinking habits are changing. We’re embracing “damp drinking” (less volume overall), “zebra striping” (subbing in non-alcoholic drinks every other round) and being “99% sober” (a mostly dry lifestyle with the occasional exception)

5 days ago
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Helen Goh’s recipe for pumpkin cheesecake with maple pecan brittle | The sweet spot

Silky, spiced and just sweet enough, this pumpkin cheesecake is a celebration of autumnal comfort. I’m not a fan of tinned pumpkin – it’s watery and flat-tasting – so I’ve taken the extra step of roasting some butternut or Kent squash; the oven’s heat coaxes out its natural sweetness while evaporating excess moisture, resulting in a smooth, flavourful puree that gives the cheesecake real depth. The maple pecan brittle provides the final flourish: golden, nutty and with just the right amount of crunch to offset the cheesecake’s creamy softness.To make 200g pumpkin puree, chop 350-400g peeled, deseeded pumpkin into chunks, then roast, loosely covered, at 200C (180C fan)/390F/gas 6 until soft but not browned. Puree in a high-speed blender

6 days ago
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Adani denies claims it sold ‘below-market coal’ leading to Queensland missing out on hundreds of millions in royalties

about 5 hours ago
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Don’t give in to big pharma on drug pricing | Letters

about 7 hours ago
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Driverless taxis from Waymo will be on London’s roads next year, US firm announces

about 15 hours ago
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iPhone Air review: Apple’s pursuit of absolute thinness

about 18 hours ago
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Could Trump really move World Cup games? The facts behind his threats

about 6 hours ago
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Rain saves England at Women’s World Cup and ruins Pakistan hopes of historic win

about 6 hours ago