AI is coming for young people’s office jobs. That’s good news for the construction industry | Gene Marks
While standing on the sideline watching a high school soccer game, my friend, who owned a small and successful construction company, complained that his son – a senior – was starting at a respected local university that fall, which would cost roughly $200,000 over the next four years.“I could take the same money and set him up in a contracting business,” he said.“It would be a much better investment.”That was in 2010.The kid did go to that college and graduated four years later with a degree in history.
Where do you think he is now? Working in the construction business.Ask anyone in the construction business and they’ll complain about the lack of skilled workers in their trade.The numbers support these concerns.The Associated General Contractors of America reported this past year that 92% of firms have had a hard time filling positions and 45% delayed at least one project due to labor shortages.A worker shortage model from the Associated Builders and Contractors estimates that the industry must attract 499,000 workers in 2026 to meet demand.
The National Association of Homebuilders estimates the number to be as high as 723,000 annually.Why the shortage? Among the reasons is that younger workers have gravitated away from working with their hands over the past few decades in lieu of office jobs.Older workers are getting older – the National Center for Construction Education and Research estimates that about 41% of the current construction workforce will retire by 2031.And the current administration’s immigration policy has not only dried up the flow of potential overseas workers but have driven many construction workers – even those with proper documentation – underground.The building of datacenters has surged over the past few years and construction workers on those projects are in such high in demand they’re seeing pay jumps of 25% to 30% compared to their previous jobs – and in some cases, much more.
Good for them, but that’s not going to last forever.What will happen very soon is – as interest rates continue to fall and new tax incentives begin to take hold – a new demand from both homebuyers and businesses looking to build and buy properties will – after more than five years – return and return strong.This is a cyclical industry.Things have been in the trough.But when the recovery happens, the peak will be high.
Which means there will be an enormous need for new constructions workers,For many in the industry facing such labor shortages, that scenario is daunting,I think the opposite,Thanks to AI, there will be an obliteration of entry-level jobs and the meaningless white-collar work,Where will they go? There will be other opportunities – startups and new jobs we’ve never heard of (20% of today’s jobs didn’t even exist in 2000).
But many will gravitate towards the trades – a place where AI can’t replace them,We’re already seeing this trend develop,Trade school enrollment is up significantly since the pandemic and is expected to increase as much as 7% annually through 2030, a rate significantly higher than other forms of higher education,The ranks of students studying construction trades alone rose 23% over the past year, according to another report,Young people are not stupid.
They’re following the money.
The Guide #223: From surprise TV hits to year-defining records – what floated your boats this year
Merry Christmas – and welcome to the last Guide of 2025! After sharing our favourite culture of the year in last week’s edition, we now turn this newsletter over to you, our readers, so you can reveal your own cultural highlights of 2025, including some big series we missed, and some great new musical tips. Enjoy the rest of the holidays and we’ll see you this time next week for the first Guide of 2026!“Get Millie Black (Channel 4), in which Tamara Lawrance gives a powerhouse performance as a loose-cannon detective investigating a case in Jamaica. The settings are a tonic in these dreary months, and the theme song (Ring the Alarm by Shanique Marie) is a belter. But be warned: the content of the final, London-set episode goes to some dark places.” – Richard Hamilton“How good was Dying For Sex! This drama about a terminally ill woman embarking on an erotic odyssey was so funny and sad and true and daring
My cultural awakening: a Turner painting helped me come to terms with my cancer diagnosis
My thyroid cancer arrived by accident, in the way life-changing things sometimes do. In May of this year, I went for an upright MRI for a minor injury on my arm, and the scan happened to catch the mass in my neck. By the following month, I had a diagnosis. People kept telling me it was “the good cancer”, the kind that can be taken out neatly and has a high survival rate. But I’m 54, and my dad died of cancer in his 50s, so that shadow came down on me hard
From Marty Supreme to The Traitors: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
Marty SupremeOut nowJosh Safdie’s new sports comedy takes loose inspiration from the career of New York ping-pong icon Marty “the Needle” Reisman, with Gwyneth Paltrow, Abel Ferrara and Fran Drescher in supporting roles, and Timothée Chalamet in the lead as the vibrantly eccentric sportsman.The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePantsOut nowThe ever-popular underwater adventures of the amiable yellow sponge continue, with a fourth big-screen adventure that sees SpongeBob tracking down the Flying Dutchman (Mark Hamill). Expect to see just as many child-free millennials in the audience as families.AnacondaOut nowApologies to anyone who views it through rose-tinted spectacles, but the original 1997 Anaconda was a load of drivel. But this isn’t a faithful remake: it’s a meta-horror-comedy-action remake about a couple of guys (Jack Black and Paul Rudd) attempting to remake Anaconda only to be attacked by – yes – a giant snake
Jewish klezmer-dance band Oi Va Voi: ‘Musicians shouldn’t have to keep looking over their shoulders’
After 20 years playing around the world, the group had two UK gigs cancelled this year after protests from activists. It’s made them feel targeted for who they are, the band sayJosh Breslaw was looking forward to a homecoming gig with his band of two decades’ standing. Oi Va Voi, a predominantly Jewish collective mixing traditional eastern European folk tunes with drum’n’bass and dance, were due to conclude a spring tour of Turkey with a gig in May at Bristol’s Strange Brew club, plus one in Brighton where Breslaw lives. But then, after protests from local activists about both the band’s past performances in Israel, and with Israeli singer Zohara, Strange Brew abruptly cancelled, citing “the ongoing situation in Gaza”.To be told they hadn’t met the venue’s “ethical standards” was devastating, says Breslaw, the band’s 52-year-old drummer: “It felt so unjust
British Museum’s plan for ‘red, white and blue’ ball sparks row
An internal row has broken out within the British Museum over its director’s suggestion of a “red, white and blue” themed ball for 2026, after staff condemned it as “in poor taste” following the rise in flag-hoisting across the UK.Nicholas Cullinan, the director of the 272-year-old museum, has proposed a colour theme based on the union jack and French tricolore to mark next year’s loan of the Bayeux tapestry from Normandy.The suggestion has led to concerns being raised by staff within the museum’s curatorial and administrative departments, the Guardian understands.Some of the staff are said to argue that the idea is “in poor taste due to the current far-right flag campaigns around the country,” a source said.Since the summer, union jacks and other flags of the four nations of the UK have been hoisted from windows, bridges and lamp-posts in what has been described by some as a celebration of Britishness
The Titanic, Sinclair C5 and Brexit: the Museum of Failure is coming to the UK
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