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Investors are expecting Donald Trump to back down in the war with Iran – but what if he doesn’t?

Investors over the past year have learned that Donald Trump has a boundless capacity to quickly reverse course in the face of acute political or market pressures.But a week since the United States and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran, there are fears the war could morph into a protracted conflict.In purely economic terms, the war has brought about what has long been considered a worst-case scenario from a conflict in the Middle East: the closure of the strait of Hormuz, through which travels a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.Since the start of the hostilities, the global benchmark oil price has jumped by 17% to more than US$85 a barrel, triggering shock waves through financial markets.The Australian sharemarket has been relatively shielded from the worst of the fallout, but still suffered a steep 3

about 24 hours ago
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Ian Arnot obituary

My friend and former colleague Ian Arnot, who has died of cancer aged 45, was an LGBTQ+ activist, charity leader and fellow of the Chartered Institute of PR (CIPR). He was also a longstanding non-executive director in the charitable sector in Edinburgh, and served as BT’s head of corporate communications from 2020 to 2025.Ian became well known in media and political circles in Scotland and London during his 24-year career with BT Group. He was appointed a chartered fellow of CIPR in 2023, in recognition of his outstanding contribution to the institute and the profession, and was elected vice-chair of CIPR Scotland in 2025. He was about to start a new role with the IHG hotel group at the time of his terminal diagnosis, which he bore with typical resilience, courage and hope

1 day ago
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UK arts must not be sacrificed for speculative AI gains, peers say

The UK’s creative industries must not be sacrificed in the pursuit of speculative gains in AI technology, a House of Lords committee has warned, as the government prepares to reveal the economic cost of proposals to change copyright rules.A report by peers has urged ministers to develop a licensing regime for the use of creative works in AI products and abandon proposals to let tech firms use the work of novelists, artists, writers and journalists without permission.The call from the House of Lords communications and digital committee comes as the government prepares to release an economic impact assessment of proposed changes to copyright law, as well as a progress update on a consultation about the legal overhaul, by a deadline of 18 March.Barbara Keeley, a Labour peer and committee chair, said the UK’s creative industries faced a “clear and present danger” from AI firms using their work without credit or payment.“AI may contribute to our future economic growth, but the UK creative industries create jobs and economic value now,” she said

1 day ago
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Mark Zuckerberg says criminal behavior on Facebook inevitable

Harms to children, such as sexual exploitation and detriments to mental health, are inevitable on Meta’s platforms, the company’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Instagram leader Adam Mosseri said in taped depositions played at a trial in New Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.“I just think if you’re serving billions of people, the unfortunate reality is that some very small percent of them are going to be criminals, and we should work as hard as we can to stop that activity from happening,” said Zuckerberg. “I don’t think that the standard for our platforms would be that you should assume that it will ever be perfect.”Meta’s apps, which include Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, are among the most popular in the world, each with 3 billion monthly active users.The trial has set the social media giant against New Mexico’s attorney general, who alleges that Meta’s platforms put profits and user engagement over child safety

2 days ago
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Rory McIlroy to defend Players title despite withdrawal from Invitational

Rory McIlroy is confident of defending his Players Championship title from Thursday despite withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer Invitational 35 minutes before his third round. McIlroy suffered back spasms, with the Northern Irishman unwilling to potentially put appearances at the Players and next month’s Masters at risk by taking to the course at Bay Hill. McIlroy will also be defending the crown at Augusta National.“While warming up in the gym this morning, I felt a small twinge in my back,” McIlroy said. “As I started hitting balls on the range before the round, it worsened and developed into muscle spasms in my lower back

about 4 hours ago
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Italy v England: Six Nations 2026 – as it happened

I’m still slack-jawed. I said at the start that I wouldn’t be shocked if Italy won, but that’s clearly not the case.History made. What a night for Italian rugby. A new low for England and Steve Borthwick who must be wondering if he’ll still have a job in two weeks

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Trump shouldn’t ease Russia sanctions – they are choking its economy

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Airline groundings expose depth of world travel’s reliance on Gulf corridor

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The Guardian view on AI in war: the Iran conflict shows that the paradigm shift has already begun

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Ben Affleck sells his AI postproduction startup to Netflix

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Make no mistake, this is now a full blown crisis for England and Borthwick | Gerard Meagher

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Gregor Townsend keeps his cool after Scotland topple France to stay in title hunt

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My cultural awakening: a Rihanna song showed me how to live as a gay man in Iran

about 16 hours ago
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My sexuality had to be hidden from my friends, my parents, not to mention the authorities,Then I found freedom at house parties and one song that sums up me finally being able to be myselfI was raised in Tehran, under the Ayatollah’s sharia law and daily watch of Basij – the “morality police”,My parents fell in love with the Islamic Revolution when I was a baby and welcomed life under its strict religious rules,The Ayatollah’s face stared down from the walls at home, a daily reminder of what was expected and what was forbidden,This included being gay, but by my teenage years I knew I was different from my peers, and began hiding my sexuality from my parents and the world outside.

The other side of life under the regime was that there was little room for celebration: happy events, even religious ones, came with inherent guilt while frivolous outside influences, including western music, were considered dangerous.And so I was in my mid-20s before I went to my first real party: an underground gathering that would become my gateway to a hidden, gay Tehran.At university, I had three gay friends who understood one another’s predicament and the intricate lies required to keep our secret.They told me about these parties, in the apartments of other gay men and trans women who transformed their homes with sound systems, lights and homemade alcohol into club nights behind closed doors.I longed for and dreaded an invite, wondering if I was ready to be let loose with the biggest circle of gay men I’d been among, worrying I’d see someone I knew, afraid of the morality police and, more so, my parents finding out.

There were so many layers of haram – forbidden behaviour – what would I tell them?When I eventually got an invite, I dressed in a tight shirt with the top buttons undone (trendy even among straight men) and spent an hour gelling my hair like the boybands I’d watched on MTV after my parents went to bed.Music videos were popular in the Middle East.Friends would ask: “Have you seen Britney or Rihanna’s latest ‘show’?” Indeed, I envied Britney’s red latex in Oops! I Did it Again and had heard Rihanna’s Umbrella, but my exposure to non-Iranian pop was still limited.I made the usual excuse to my parents – that I was going to dinner – and got into a friend’s car where Rihanna’s Don’t Stop the Music was playing on cassette.“This is cool,” I said.

“Have you not heard it?” he asked.“It’s the new thing.You’ll definitely hear it tonight.”When we reached the apartment and entered, I was instantly enraptured by the music.A moment of doubt arrived, then euphoria.

Sure enough, Rihanna’s song came on.The room bounced up and down, I caught my friend’s eye and pinched myself.I was lost in a new world.On the drive home, I listened again to take myself back.Over the next few years, I immersed myself in that scene, partying once or twice a fortnight, each time leaving home feeling anxious about what my parents thought.

Then I sat in my friend’s car, and the worry melted away.I threw my own party, in my father’s holiday home outside the city, on a night my parents wouldn’t be visiting.I hired a sound system and lights – and, of course, ensured Rihanna played.Don’t Stop the Music became a mainstay.Whenever it came on, my best gay friend and I would exchange a look that said: “It’s our song, let’s go.

” Rihanna, Britney and Madonna were the mark of a good party.After university, then compulsory military service, I knew I wanted to leave Iran.I moved to London, where I work as a doctor and have a partner.I’ve never confirmed my sexuality to my parents; they know, but it remains unspoken.I’ve written about gay Tehran and the parties in a book about my life there, The Ayatollah’s Gaze, under my pen name; to reveal my identity would still be dangerous.

Maybe that will change soon for me – mostly, for those who are still there,Now, there is full-blown war,When the supreme leader, the Ayatollah, was killed a week ago, the promise of regime change became real for so many of us,I messaged my best gay friend who lives not far from the compound where Khamenei was hit,I worry that he and others are safe – but I also know the excitement they finally feel for futures we have dreamed of.

“Are you OK?” I wrote, cautious still of sending anything anti-regime on WhatsApp.“Congratulations, he is finally dead,” he replied.“You have no idea how we are feeling!” I feel it, too: jubilant and closer to a day where the parties we enjoyed together are no longer hidden.A friend from those days lives in Europe and visits sometimes.Each time we’ve heard Rihanna play – in a shop, club or bar – he elbows me, as if to say: “Do you remember your terrible dance moves to this?” That song showed me that gay life in Iran was possible – I cannot forget it.

You can tell us how a cultural moment has prompted you to make a major life change by filling in the form below or emailing us on cultural,awakening@theguardian,com,Please include as much detail as possiblePlease note, the maximum file size is 5,7 MB.

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