Wall Street has joined the global relief rally after Donald Trump postponed attacks on Iran’s power plants, sending a surge of optimism though trading floors.In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average has jumped by 2% or 928 points to 46,505 points.Construction equipment firm Caterpillar (+4.4%), manufacturing conglomerate 3M (+3.7%) and DIY chain Home Depot (+3.

65%) are leading the risers.The broader S&P 500 share index has rallied too, it’s up 1.9%.Investors are relieved that Donald Trump has extended by five days his deadline to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power stations and energy infrastructure if Tehran does not allow shipping to move freely through the strait of Hormuz, claiming that the US and Iran have held “very good and productive conversations” on an end to the three-week-old war.With the markets so volatile today, George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars has warned investors to respond only to verified facts.

Lagarias says:double quotation mark“The volatility of asset prices faithfully mirrors the volatility of events in the Middle East, including competing, and conflicting, statements from Washington and Tehran.Despite the initial jump in risk assets, it’s becoming evident that the situation remains uniquely fluid.De-escalation is as much on the table as re-escalation.Investors should remain calm and respond only to verified facts and agreed upon deals.At the heart of the market volatility is free movement in and out of the Straits of Hormuz, a very important global trade chokepoint.

Until investors get assurance of at least a medium-term resolution that would ensure the resumption of normal trade in the Persian Gulf, they would do well to remain reserved.”And finally, Wall Street has closed higher tonight.The Dow Jones industrial average has ended the day up 631 points, or 1.38%, at 46,208 points.That’s the DJIA’s best daily gain in six weeks, since 6 February, as hopes of possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict rippled through markets.

The S&P 500 share index, which is broader than the Dow, finished 1,15% higher – up 75 points at 6,581 points,That wraps up a dramatic day in the markets, which started with heavy losses in Asia-Pacific bourses (Japan’s Nikkei fell 3,5%), and early drops in Europe – which reversed dramatically after Donald Trump announced that he had instructed the defence department to postpone all airstrikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period,This triggered a recovery in London, stronger gains in other European markets, and a tumble in the oil price, despite denials from Tehran.

Our Middle East blog has all the latest developmentsOil is resolutely lower tonight, despite Iran’s parliament speaker insisting ‘no negotiations’ have been held with the US.US crude oil (WTI) is down 9.9% at $88.52 a barrel, while Brent crude is 11% lower at $99.66.

Cruise operators have had a strong day on the US stock market.Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (+6.6%), Royal Caribbean Cruises (+5.7%) and Carnival (+5.7%) are all among the top risers on the S&P 500 in the last few minutes of trading.

Into the last hour of trading, and the Dow’s still up around 1.8%…Consultancy Oxford Economics are predicting that the strait of Hormuz will remains impassable until May, despite today’s comments from Donald Trump.Their new baseline also assumes elevated geopolitical tensions will continue to disrupt trade through Q2 and Q3 this year.“The temporary postponement of US military strikes in an effort to reach a deal does not materially change that assumption, though it does shift risks to the downside,” the analysis, written by Bridget Payne, Head of Oil and Gas Forecasting and Jack Reid, Oil and Gas Economist at the firm, reads, adding:double quotation mark“It may prove to be an initial step towards de-escalation, but there remains significant uncertainty around what happens next and it is too early to assume Strait transit will normalise sooner than in our baseline.”Today’s swirling markets, driven by online posts and quotes from Donald Trump, are reminiscent of the turmoil almost 12 months ago.

“This is the same type of thing that happened after Liberation Day,” says Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.Two tankers bound for India have sailed through the strait of Hormuz today, Reuters reports.The two India-flagged tankers were carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used mostly for cooking in India.They loaded at anchorages in Kuwait and the UAE, LSEG ship-tracking data showed.As we flagged this morning, the Pine Gas, which loaded in UAE waters, sailed through the strait followed by the Jag Vasant carrying LPG from Kuwait, ship-tracking data on the MarineTraffic platform showed.

With less than two hour’s trading to go in New York, stocks are still higher – despite Iran’s parliament speaker accusing Trump of ‘fake news’ over the US-Iran talks,The S&P 500 share index is up 1,4% at 6,600 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 1,7% higher, amid hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East,Investors are remaining confident, it seems, despite Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying that “no negotiations” were held with the United States after US president Donald Trump announced talks were ongoing.

Ghalibaf said in a post on X.double quotation mark“No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”There was some unusual market activity in the minutes before Donald Trump surprised and cheered investors by extending Iran’s deadline to avoid the US bombing its power plants.CNBC has the details:double quotation markS&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.At around 6:50 a.

m.in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop.With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.5 minutes before Trump’s announcement:* $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip.

* $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold.More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close.Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight! pic.twitter.com/RhE3hiC0ljMost European stock markets posted gains today.

Germany’s DAX closed 1.2% higher, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.8% and Spain’s IBEX rose by 1%.Today saw the market perform “a handbrake turn with juddering speed after President Trump suggested the US and Iran were close to ‘total resolution’ on their weeks-long conflict,” says AJ Bell head of markets Dan Coatsworth.He adds, though, that there are “significant uncertainties remain for investors to pick through”, saying:double quotation markThe Iranian regime has refuted the idea of dialogue with the US and, even assuming a deal can be agreed, questions of how and when the Strait of Hormuz will be unblocked and how quickly shipments through this strategically important body of water can get back to pre-war levels will remain.

“There will be a lot of focus in the coming days on whether the Trump administration’s position holds, whether talks can de-escalate the situation and whether the market can build on its new-found momentum.Hints of some renewed tetchiness as European markets headed for the close were a reminder that much is still to be resolved.double quotation mark“If nothing else, today’s trading highlighted that markets can turn on a sixpence and that’s why time in the market rather than attempting to time the market is the best approach for most long-term investors.”Back on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average has dipped back from its earlier highs, but is still up 1.44% or 655 points at 46,233 points.

Back in London, the FTSE 100 share index has closed down 24 points at 9,894 points, a drop of 0,24% today,But that doesn’t capture the scale of today’s action at all!The morning started with heavy selling, which drove the ‘Footsie’ down by almost 250 points at one stage to its lowest level since early December, adding to last week’s losses,But there was then a resounding rebound, which put the index up more than 100 points today – back over the 10,000-point mark – after Donald Trump extended by five days his deadline to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power stations,Stocks then slipped back, though, as investors digested denials from Iran that constructive talks had taken place, as Trump claimed.

Gambling firm Entain (+8.2%) ended the day as the top riser, after reports of legislation in the US which would block betting on sports events on prediction market platforms.It was followed by copper producer Antofagasta (+7.3%), with airlines and housebuilders also in the top risers.But hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East hit shares in defence company BAE System (-4.

9%), and BP (-4.2%).Eurozone consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since late 2023 this month, a European Commission survey shows.In a sign of the economic damage caused by the Iran war, eurozone consumer confidence fell to -16.3 this month from a revised -12.

3 in February.Eurozone consumer confidence took a big hit in March.Unsurprisingly surging petrol and diesel prices are a much bigger and immediate concern than the abstract economic hit from US tariffs, that was softened by partial TACOs and tariff front-running.pic.twitter.

com/cIzhbq2hPYAndrew Kenningham at Capital Economics said.double quotation mark“The four-point drop in March is one of the largest falls on record other than at the start of the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict.”“Based on our current working assumptions about oil and gas prices, we think household spending will decline and cause GDP to stagnate over the next two quarters.”The financial markets are now only pricing in two hikes in UK interest rates this year – down from four hikes early this morning.The European Central Bank is also expected to raise eurozone borrowing costs twice by December.

Recessions can often be preceded by oil price spikes that prompt central bankers to tighten monetary policy,, even though higher energy costs are a tax on consumers,Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at French bank Société Générale, explains:double quotation markOrthodox macro-economic models argue in favour of tightening monetary policy, even though the man or woman in the street wonders why the pain of higher energy, travel and food prices should be compounded by making money more expensive, too,Market participants know that this is what happens and are pricing in ECB and BOE hikes by June, with a second hike by September,The rates market doesn’t currently price in a Fed hike, so the longer the price of oil stays elevated, the greater the probability of higher rates in Europe, outright and relative to the US, while the European despite Europe’s economic outlook deteriorating modesTrump has also told reporters in Washington that his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and close aide and son-in-law Jared Kushner talked to the Iranians on Sunday and that discussions would continue on Monday.

Speaking before departing Florida to travel to Memphis, Trump said:double quotation mark“We have had very, very strong talks.We’ll see where they lead.We have points, major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement...

we’ve had very strong talks, Mr.Witkoff and Mr.Kushner had them.“All I’m saying is, we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal.”Asset manager Aberdeen is cautiously putting its toe into the UK government debt market, after Donald Trump calmed markets (for the moment….

) today.Matthew Amis, investment director at Aberdeen, says Trump’s statement is the circuit breaker that markets needed, adding:double quotation markThe selling has stopped for the time being after a very weak start to the week.European sovereign markets, as you would expect, are reacting positively to the Trump headlines, despite the Iranian pushback.However, to materially unwind the moves of the last few weeks, we would need to see more than words and clear action: namely ships moving through the Straits of Hormuz.Markets still have aggressive hikes priced for the UK and Eurozone in 2026