Oil and gas crisis from Iran war worse than 1973, 1979 and 2022 together, says IEA
The oil and gas crisis triggered by the blockade of the strait of Hormuz is “more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together”, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said, as Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway approached on Tuesday.Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, told Le Figaro newspaper that the impact of the Middle East conflict on the oil market was larger than the combined force of the twin shocks of the 1970s and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.He also said the countries most at risk were developing nations, which would suffer from higher oil and gas prices, higher food prices and a general acceleration of inflation, while European countries, Japan and Australia would also feel an impact.Oil traded at more than $110 (£83) a barrel on Tuesday after Trump warned that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran made a deal.Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was up 0.
7% at $110.60 a barrel in early afternoon trading in Europe, with New York light crude up 2.5% to $115.17 a barrel.Investors are growing increasingly anxious as Trump escalates his threats against Iran, demanding that it reopen the strait of Hormuz as part of any deal to stop the war.
The US president posted on his Truth Social site: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”There were also reports that the US had hit military targets on Kharg Island, the site of a key Iranian oil export terminal.Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, said: “Markets are once again on edge as the US-Iran conflict enters a critical phase, with investors effectively trading against another countdown clock set by the Trump administration.
“The situation has evolved into a near-term binary outcome: either escalation through direct strikes on Iranian infrastructure, or a last-minute de-escalation that could trigger a sharp reversal in risk assets.For now, the absence of a clear path forward is keeping markets volatile and indecisive.”The US president, speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, set a deadline of Tuesday 8pm ET (1am BST Wednesday) for Iran to agree a deal with Washington or face fresh attacks on civil infrastructure, including power plants.“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said.He said passage through the strait – a vital shipping channel through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies normally passes – was a “very big priority” and should be part of any ceasefire deal.
Stock markets in Asia were mixed on Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei flat and South Korea’s Kospi rising by 1.1%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped by 0.7%.European markets fell after Trump’s latest threat.
In London, the blue-chip FTSE 100 share index was down 86 points or 0.84% in afternoon trading.Germany’s DAX fell 0.9% and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.35%.
Wall Street opened lower, with the Dow Jones industrial average dipping by 296 points, or 0.64%, to 46,373.Markets have been choppy since the US-Israel attack on Iran in February, as the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz has fed fears around inflation and rattled investor confidence.On Monday, Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said the war was likely to lead to higher inflation and slower global growth.Georgieva told Reuters that before the war began the IMF had expected a small upgrade in its expectation for global growth of 3.
3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.Instead, she said, “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth”.The IMF is expected to publish its report on the world economic outlook next week.“We are in a world of elevated uncertainty,” Georgieva said, citing geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, demographic shifts and advancements in technology.
“All of this means that after we recover from this shock, we need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”Drivers in the UK have been hit by the shock.The RAC reported there were “significant fuel price rises” over Easter, with petrol up 2.6p a litre to 157.02p and diesel up 4.
2p to 189.42p over the bank holiday weekend.The Iran war is also pushing the British economy towards stagflation, a poll of purchasing managers at UK companies found.Service sector growth was the weakest in 11 months in March, the data provider S&P Global reported on Tuesday, owing to falling business and consumer spending.Thomas Pugh, the chief economist at the leading audit, tax and consulting company RSM UK, said: “The inevitable conclusion from this morning’s final PMI numbers for March is that the UK is in for another bout of stagflation, even if the conflict ends soon.
If it drags on longer, a recession looks likely.”
JP Morgan reaches agreement with City airport for Canary Wharf’s tallest tower
JP Morgan Chase has reached agreement with London City airport to build one of Europe’s tallest office towers in the east of the capital.The £3bn tower is poised to be the tallest in the Canary Wharf financial district after JP Morgan, one of Wall Street’s biggest banks, secured approval from the airport.JP Morgan revealed plans last November to build the Canary Wharf tower, which will serve as its new UK headquarters. The lender has since been in talks with airport officials over building height restrictions, given Canary Wharf’s location four miles west of City airport.Any new developments and planning applications within 10km (6 miles) of the airport are considered to be within its “area of interest”, meaning its safeguarding officials need to be consulted to ensure new buildings in Docklands do not interfere with aircraft movements
Iceland chain offers job to man sacked by Waitrose after confronting shoplifter
Keir Starmer’s cost of living tsar, who is the chair of Iceland, has offered a job to a worker who was sacked from Waitrose after trying to stop a shoplifter.Waitrose faced public outcry over its treatment of Walker Smith, who was fired two days after he stopped the shoplifter taking items from the Easter egg display, including Lindt chocolate bunnies.Richard Walker responded by offering Smith a job at one of his stores. In a LinkedIn post, he wrote: “You’re welcome to a job with us. We even share the same name …”An Iceland spokesperson confirmed to the Guardian that the supermarket chain had been in touch with Smith and offered him a job
Universal Music, home to Taylor Swift and Drake, receives €55bn takeover offer
Billionaire Bill Ackman’s hedge fund has offered to buy Universal Music Group (UMG) in a deal that values the world’s biggest music company at around €55bn (£48bn).Pershing Square, the New-York based hedge fund, has made a bid for the business, which is home to artists including Taylor Swift and Elton John, with a cash and stock deal that would move its stock market listing from Amsterdam to New York.Ackman said in a statement that while the company, which is led by the British-born Sir Lucian Grainge, had done “an excellent job nurturing and continuing to build a world-class artist roster and generating strong business performance”, its share price had lagged owing to issues “unrelated to the performance of its music business”.Shares in UMG, which have been listed in Amsterdam since 2021, had lost more than a quarter of their value in the past year alone. Pershing’s offer triggered a sharp rise, with the price up by 13% on the previous trading day when the Amsterdam Euronext exchange closed on Tuesday
UK City firms report fastest turnaround in fortunes in 30 years
Britain’s financial services companies have reported a strong recovery in activity at the start of the year, in a surprise boost to the government after a gloomy end to 2025.Banks, insurers and investment managers said their businesses were growing, with a positive balance of nearly two-thirds noting an expansion, according to a long-running survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), a lobby group. That contrasted with the negative balance of 38% in December, despite the start of the US-Israel war on Iran.It was the fastest turnaround in the sector’s fortunes in 30 years, since December 1996, the group said.Financial services companies such as banks, insurers and investors have been performing well in recent quarters
UK manufacturers ‘will pay £940m a year more in business rates due to Reeves changes’
British manufacturers have said they will have to pay an extra £940m a year in business rates because of changes by Rachel Reeves that come into effect this month.Manufacturers face a disproportionate business rates bill because they often have large factory floors, according to analysis by MakeUK, an industry lobby group. It said that factories accounted for a fifth of England and Wales’s property by rateable value, despite manufacturers only accounting for a 10th of economic output.The chancellor increased business rates at the budget in November. That included companies paying an additional surcharge on buildings of a rateable value of more than £500,000
‘Italy has the best benefits’: Milan takes on Dubai as home for the super-rich
Just over a month ago, Dubai was the obvious destination for wealthy Britons in search of a new home. Few cities allow you to earn vast sums tax-free and spend them across any number of luxury hotels, restaurants and shops.But as the United Arab Emirates comes under Iranian fire, Dubai’s reputation – in part created by emigrant influencers – as a haven for the global elite is eroding. Super-rich UK nationals are now looking for a route back to Europe; and Milan, the financial centre of Italy, is climbing to the top of the list.“Italy has the best benefits: a flat tax and good quality of life,” says Armand Arton, a consultant who helps multimillionaire and billionaire families to relocate through investment citizenship schemes
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