US debt set to soar above Italy and Greece after Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’

A picture


Donald Trump is on course to push US debt levels above those of Italy and Greece by the end of the decade after wide-ranging tax cuts and increased defence spending, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts,Illustrating the rising debt levels in Washington and efforts made by Rome and Athens to bring spending under control after the 2008 financial crash and Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF predicts the US will see its debts climb from 125% to 143% of annual income by 2030, while Italy’s will flatline at about 137%,Greece is on track to cut the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) from 146% to 130% over the same period,According to IMF data, Athens has tackled a budget overspend that raced to 210% as a proportion of GDP in 2020,Amid tax cuts for high earners, the US is expected to run annual budget deficits of more than 7% over the next five years, while Italy is due to cut its spending shortfall this year to 2.

9%, allowing it to meet a 3% limit set by Brussels a year early, in analysis first reported in the Financial Times,Trump increased US government spending and cut federal taxes in the “big, beautiful bill”, passed by Congress in the summer, forcing the White House to rely more heavily on borrowing to fund annual spending,The US president reversed efforts under the previous Biden administration to limit the size of the US deficit, offering tax cuts that will benefit mostly middle and high income groups,He has also pledged to build a “golden dome” defence shield, which could cost almost $1tn,Spending increases could push the budget deficit higher by $7tn a year by the time Trump is due to leave office in January 2029.

Both Italy and Greece have committed to maintaining primary budget surpluses, which entail cuts in spending to below the incomes from tax receipts.Italy’s growth rate is expected to average 0.5% over the next couple of years.Its population is falling due to a declining birthrate and a level of emigration that hit 200,000 last year, but Italy has seen average household incomes recover.Lorenzo Codogno, the head of Lorenzo Codogno Macro Advisors and a former chief economist at Italy’s treasury department, said there was pressure on Giorgia Meloni’s government to increase spending in the wake of Trump’s tariffs and his demands for bigger European defence budgets.

He said: “The economy and public finances remain vulnerable to a sudden negative shift in the global scenario.”Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionMahmood Pradhan, head of global macro at the Amundi Investment Institute, told the FT: “It is a symbolic moment, and according to the Congressional Budget Office the projections are for US debt to carry on rising – that is the impact of running perpetual deficits.“But Italy has a weaker growth outlook than the US, so this should not be read as meaning Italy is out of the woods.”James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said: “Many US politicians and investors look down somewhat on Europe and its slow growth and struggling economies, but when you have metrics like this, the conversation changes.”
cultureSee all
A picture

My cultural awakening: A Jim Carrey series made me embrace baldness – and shave my head on the spot

I was a mess of insecurities, trying to hide thinning hair, worried I was ageing too quickly. Then a scene in the TV show Kidding changed everythingGrowing up, I was obsessed with Jim Carrey. I was just entering my teens when The Mask came out, and I can still picture myself watching Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls on TV one weekend afternoon, absolutely howling at the silliness of it. His elastic facial expressions, the energy, the stunts – it was the perfect tenor of humour for a young boy.By the time I was in college, I had moved on to his more thoughtful films

A picture

From Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere to IT: Welcome to Derry – your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead

Jeremy Allen White channels the Boss in a hotly tipped new biopic, and Pennywise the clown returns to terrorise unsuspecting children in a spooky horror prequel seriesSpringsteen: Deliver Me from NowhereOut now The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White plays the Boss in this buzzed-about Bruce Springsteen biopic focusing on the period when he was making his 1982 album Nebraska (so, post-Born to Run but pre-Born in the USA), with Jeremy Strong playing critic turned producer Jon Landau.The MastermindOut now Kelly Reichardt returns with an art heist movie inspired by a real robbery in 1970s Massachusetts, in which two Gauguins, a Picasso and a Rembrandt were nicked. Here, it’s Arthur Dove paintings that catch the eye of Josh O’Connor’s art thief James Blaine Mooney.ParaNormanOut now An odd dearth of family films has left a gap in the market into which this rerelease of 2012’s animated adventure ParaNorman has decided to slip. Norman Babcock (Kodi Smit-McPhee) is the misfit 11-year-old who speaks with the dead, enabling a spooky adventure to unfold in time for Halloween

A picture

John Deere obituary

My father, John Deere, who has died aged 89, was the arts director of Nottingham county council for 20 years. A passionate advocate for the arts, he was appointed to the post in the council’s newly established leisure services department in 1975, following the national reorganisation of local authorities.There, for 20 years, he transformed the artistic life of Nottinghamshire through development and funding of arts activities across the county. In the town of Retford, he supported the internationally famous Cantamus girls choir and, in Mansfield, the Mansfield Palace theatre.Events ranged from concerts by world-renowned musicians such as Vladimir Ashkenazy, André Previn and the pianist John Ogdon, a native of Nottinghamshire, to poetry readings by established poets such as Aeronwy Thomas, Dylan’s daughter

A picture

Timely assurance from Lear’s Kent | Letters

The passing of John Woodvine (Obituary, 13 October) reminded me of the time when four of us University of East Anglia students went to the Norwich Theatre Royal to see the Actors’ Company touring King Lear in June 1974.We were early and went for a something to eat at a newly opened “burger” style restaurant with booths and partitions so you couldn’t see who was at adjacent tables – a novelty at the time. The service was very slow and we were concerned that we would be late for the theatre.Suddenly a head appeared over the partition and said: “Don’t worry – they won’t start without me!” It was John Woodvine, who turned out to be the Earl of Kent and was the first to speak in the play. Needless to say we made it in time

A picture

The Guide #214: Sleep-inducing songs and tranquilising TV – the culture that sends us to sleep (in a good way)

How do you sleep at night? If you’re like Hannah, a recent subject of the Guardian’s My cultural awakening column, it’s to the sound of a rat whisking eggs. The series shares stories of people who made a significant life change thanks to a piece of popular culture, and in the case of Hannah, that meant curing insomnia by watching Ratatouille. Every night for the last 15 years, at home or abroad, she switches on the Pixar classic and, within minutes, finds herself dropping off, thanks to the film’s comforting, consistent soundscape. It’s so effective, in fact, she’s never even seen it all the way through.Hannah’s might be a bit of an extreme example, but her tale does touch on something universal: culture seems to play an increasingly important role these days in helping people nod off

A picture

Seth Meyers on Trump’s White House ballroom: ‘This couldn’t be any more of a bait and switch’

Late-night hosts mocked Donald Trump’s demolition of the East Wing of the White House and the corporate sponsors of his $300m gilded ballroom.On Thursday’s Late Night, Seth Meyers expressed disbelief over the president’s gilded ballroom project for the White House. “It would be bad enough if Trump’s biggest priority was just building a gilded vanity project for himself, but it’s so much worse,” he said. “Because to do it, he’s tearing down a somewhat well-known and beloved piece of property.”That would be the entire East Wing of the presidential residence, which has stood for 120 years