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Starmer says Farage would spook the City and give us Truss 2 – he could be right

4 days ago
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The message Zia Yusuf wanted to send was clear.With a backdrop of the City of London behind him, from the 34th floor of the Shard, the Reform UK chair laid out an economic policy designed to show his party meant business.In a briefing over a full English breakfast for some of the nation’s journalists on Friday morning, Yusuf reiterated an announcement the Reform leader, Nigel Farage, had made overnight from another hotel 5,000 miles away in Las Vegas: the party would now accept donations in bitcoin, and if elected to power would make tax and regulatory changes to bolster Britain’s adoption of cryptocurrency.As far as settings go for a press conference, commanding views over St Paul’s Cathedral and the banks and asset managers of the Square Mile, it is straight out of the Westminster playbook, even if the policy idea is pure Donald Trump.However, the trouble with Yusuf’s message to the City was not the questionable credibility of crypto – viewed with unease at the Bank of England as the wild west of finance – but the party’s broader tax and spending policies.

Riding high in the opinion polls, scrutiny of Reform and its plans for the economy is growing – led this week by an attack from Keir Starmer who claimed that Farage’s tax and spending policies were grounded in the same “fantasy economics” used to devastating effect by Liz Truss.The accusation Labour makes is that Yusuf and Farage would spook the City with unfunded tax cuts, sparking a meltdown akin to the ill-fated former prime minister’s mini-budget.And despite the posturing from the heights of the Shard, the verdict from many economists is that Starmer could have a point.Reform has made expansive tax pledges worth at least £60bn – with most of the costs relating to a promise to raise the income tax personal allowance to £20,000 a year, a substantial increase on its current £12,570.Reform has also pledged to increase the threshold for the 40% higher rate of income tax in England from £50,271 to £70,000.

In the argument about whether Reform’s sums add up, Richard Tice, the party’s finance spokesperson, has suggested most politicians have no idea about the Laffer curve.Named after the US economist Arthur Laffer, it is an illustration of a theory that there are optimal tax rates at which government revenue is maximised.The idea is that tax cuts could stimulate economic activity, thus bringing in more revenue.While a tax rate of 100% would clearly stop dead economic activity, the idea that tax cuts pay for themselves has also been widely debunked including by Greg Mankiw, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W Bush, who has described Laffer advocates as “charlatans and cranks”.Tice acknowledges that there is an “optimum point”, while Yusuf said that in government Reform would prioritise tax cuts “in the right sequential order and make sure that the numbers add up”.

Many economists, too, warn tax rises announced by Labour will undermine economic growth.However, the criticism remains that Reform has mostly promised sweeping tax giveaways without credible corresponding measures to avoid widening the country’s already £100bn-plus budget deficit and £2.7tn debt pile.Add to this Britain’s low economic growth rate, above-target inflation, elevated national debt and rising borrowing costs for governments around the world linked to investor fears over Donald Trump’s trade war, and the argument is that room for additional borrowing is pretty slim.After Farage’s welfare pledges this week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Reform’s announced fiscal policies so far would cost the exchequer between £60bn and £80bn a year in foregone income and additional outlays.

The IFS warned this was not yet balanced by corresponding spending cuts or tax rises elsewhere, which it said would be needed for the plan to be implementable.Yusuf said Reform’s plans were a work in progress and were liable to change as the party developed its 2029 manifesto.“You shouldn’t just transfer or copy and paste all of that [policies from the 2024 document] into an assumption about what the manifesto would be for the next general election,” he added.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionIt could be a fair point given the distance to the next election, and how much the economy is likely to change between now and then.Labour also stands accused of reneging on its early 2024 promises.

However, voters may expect better from a putative party of government – especially one trading on public anger at politicians for moving the goalposts.However, Yusuf insisted that savings could credibly be made from “scrapping net zero”, slashing overseas aid to zero, stripping 5% from “quango spending” each year and removing all funding for “asylum hotels”.“The numbers I just gave you there add up to 78 odd billion, right? And that would be £350bn-£400bn over the course of Nigel’s first term,” he said.Economists at the Institute for Government have questioned whether these savings would ever be deliverable, highlighting that most of the £45bn of net zero savings promised by Reform was money being spent not by the government, but the private sector.When Truss brought forward her mini-budget, she used a Treasury document running to more than 40 pages to justify her tax plans – yet still tested the confidence of City investors.

For Reform, there could be a danger of history repeating,
businessSee all
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UK service sector confidence higher in May than since before autumn budget

Bosses in the UK’s services sector were more optimistic last month than they had been since before Rachel Reeves’ debut budget, according to new data, as they began to see beyond the uncertainty sparked by Donald Trump’s tariff war.A survey of business leaders showed many were looking forward to improved sales and investment over the next six months, despite an increase in US import tariffs to their highest level since the 1930s.The S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose from April’s 27-month low of 49.0 to 50.9

about 8 hours ago
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Lower-income consumers missing out on pay rises fuels fall in sales at B&M

One of Britain’s biggest discount retailers has blamed a slide in sales and profits on lower-income consumers missing out on wage rises.B&M, which issued a profit warning in February, said consumers had been more cautious about their spending over the past year.It added that its sales had fallen because of “limited real wage growth”, particularly among its “core lower-income consumer groups” who had previously received emergency cost of living support payments, which ended in February 2024.The retailer, which sells everything from cleaning products and pet food to garden furniture and inflatable hot tubs, said comparable sales at its 740-plus UK stores decreased by 3.1% in the 12 months to the end of March

about 9 hours ago
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Chalmers says cheaper cigarettes will not solve illegal tobacco boom, dismissing NSW premier

Jim Chalmers says making cigarettes cheaper will not solve the booming trade in illegal tobacco, dismissing the call by the New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, to slash taxes on smoking.Minns joined Victoria’s state government in blaming the high tobacco excise for a spike in organised crime that has led to arson attacks on businesses and stretched police resources.The NSW premier said his state will propose a cut to the federal excise to deter illegal tobacco sales at the next health ministers’ meeting later this month, even as he admitted that it was “probably not a popular thing for a premier to say”.“There’s been a tax on cigarettes for decades, and I understand that,” he said.But he said the excise had “radically increased” over the past five years and the high taxes were causing people who would never usually break the law to buy illegal tobacco

about 12 hours ago
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Sellafield nuclear clean-up too slow and too costly, say MPs

MPs have warned about the speed and cost of cleaning up the Sellafield nuclear waste dump and raised concerns over a “suboptimal” workplace culture at the site.Members of parliament’s public accounts committee (PAC) urged the government and bosses at the sprawling collection of crumbling buildings in Cumbria to get a grasp on the “intolerable risks” presented by its ageing infrastructure.In a detailed report into the site, the PAC said Sellafield was not moving quickly enough to tackle its biggest hazards; raised the alarm over its culture; and said the government was not ensuring value for money was being achieved from taxpayer funds.In 2023, the Guardian’s Nuclear Leaks investigation revealed a string of safety concerns at the site – including escalating fears over a leak of radioactive liquid from a decaying building known as the Magnox swarf storage silo (MSSS) – as well as cybersecurity failings and allegations of a poor workplace culture.The PAC – which heard evidence in March from Sellafield and its oversight body, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) – found that the state-owned company had missed most of its annual targets to retrieve waste from several buildings, including the MSSS

about 22 hours ago
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Train ticket enforcement must be fair and proportionate, watchdog warns

Some train operators have excessively prosecuted alleged fare dodgers, according to the rail regulator, which has called for clearer tickets and a fairer system to avoid penalising mistakes.A report by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) said passengers who boarded trains without a valid ticket faced “inconsistent treatment and outcomes” across the network, with “disproportionate action” sometimes taken over small errors.The review, commissioned in November by the then transport secretary, Louise Haigh, said fare evasion cost Britain’s railways hundreds of millions of pounds every year and undermined the sense of fairness among paying passengers.However, the ORR also said it was vital that measures to tackle fare-dodging were “applied appropriately and fairly”.Cases it noted included a passenger who was threatened with prosecution for accidentally selecting a ticket linked to the wrong railcard – even though the discount and fare paid were the same – and another who faced legal action after a water-damaged printout could not be scanned, despite them later providing proof of the valid ticket

about 22 hours ago
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Hapless Thames Water is finally drinking in the last chance saloon

Call yourself barbarians at the gate? Actually, KKR hates the decades-old description, but the US private equity firm is still meant to have a fearsome reputation for doing its homework, being a cute judge of political risks and going where others fear to tread. All of which makes its 11th-hour abandonment of its £4bn bid for Thames Water very odd.The suggestion is that the big bosses in New York couldn’t stomach the political and reputational risks of owning the UK’s largest and most crisis-ridden water company. If that’s the reasoning, though, KKR should explain itself. The political risks aren’t obviously worse than six months ago – and arguably are less now that the government’s water commissioner, Sir Jon Cunliffe, is talking aloud about “how to restore the stability and predictability of the regulatory system” in his interim report published co-incidentally on Tuesday

1 day ago
societySee all
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How to make early prison release work | Letters

1 day ago
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UK cancer survival rate doubles since 1970s amid ‘golden age’, report says

1 day ago
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Cancer experts warn of coffee enemas and juice diets amid rise in misinformation

2 days ago
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Disabled woman killed herself after DWP mistakenly withdrew benefits

2 days ago
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Issues in social housing that Labour must tackle | Letters

2 days ago
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Police launch corporate manslaughter inquiry into Nottingham hospital trust

2 days ago