B&Q owner holds firm – but others might struggle if a ‘softening’ retail market turns soggy

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Just what an embattled chancellor needs on the eve of a tax-raising budget: a leading retailer upping its profits forecast and singing about the joys of the UK economy.Unfortunately, only the first bit is true.Kingfisher, owner of B&Q and Screwfix (and similar businesses in France and Poland), raised its profit expectations for its current financial year from £480m-£540m to £540m-£570m.But it definitely didn’t ooze confidence in the UK outlook.Rather, Kingfisher noted “softening market conditions” and added: “We continue to be mindful of inflation, uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget and the softening labour market.

”In other words, the group is saying its improvement in the profits department is a self-help job, which is fair,Like-for-like sales in the UK in the last quarter were up 3%,It is winning market share in the UK (where it helps that Homebase went into administration a year ago), grabbing a bigger slice of the professional “trade” market and improving its e-commerce game,The slick Screwfix operation continues to be streets ahead of its direct rivals,Meanwhile, the recently troubled French operation (Castorama and Brico Dépôt) is being restructured, which helped slightly to off-set local “weak consumer sentiment” that sounds several degrees worse than in the UK.

Take a step back and Kingfisher’s progress can be regarded as a parable of the retail scene in two ways.First, it is proof that a basically well managed operator in a strong competitive position can prosper even under subdued economic conditions.For other examples, think Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Next.All have been great shares to own in the 12 months since Rachel Reeves’s last budget, never mind the increase in employers’ national insurance and the rest of it.The other aspect is more nuanced.

On one hand, the ridiculously long and chaotic build-up to the budget has plainly sapped consumer confidence – a CBI distributive trades survey on Tuesday confirmed what we already knew.On the other hand, there still remains a basic level of resilience if Kingfisher is a guide.“Softening” is not the same as outright soft.For that, give thanks for four cuts in interest rates since last October’s budget.Lower mortgage costs matter particularly in DIY businesses for big-ticket items such as kitchens and bathrooms.

So one can – just about – sketch out an optimistic scenario for consuming-facing companies in which Reeves avoids inflation-raising howlers such as last year’s NICs rises and clears the way for the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster.The gilts market has half-bought that story in recent weeks as yields have fallen from their scary September highs.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionThe alternative, though, is not good from businesses’ point of view.The prospect of rate cuts is virtually the only big-picture factor running in their favour as they contemplate pressure on wages and fixed costs.Remove lower borrowing costs and there’s little to stop softening conditions turning soggy very quickly.

Kingfisher, to repeat, can handle most outcomes,But consumer sentiment across the retail landscape looks fragile,
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Chef Skye Gyngell, who pioneered the slow food movement, dies aged 62

Tributes have been paid to the pioneering chef and restaurant proprietor Skye Gyngell, who has died aged 62.The Australian was an early celebrity proponent of using local and seasonal ingredients and built a garden restaurant from scratch, the Petersham Nurseries Cafe in Richmond, south-west London, which went on to win a Michelin star.A statement released by her family and friends read: “We are deeply saddened to share news of Skye Gyngell’s passing on 22 November in London, surrounded by her family and loved ones.“Skye was a culinary visionary who influenced generations of chefs and growers globally to think about food and its connection to the land.“She leaves behind a remarkable legacy and is an inspiration to us all

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How to make the perfect butter paneer – recipe | Felicity Cloake's How to make the perfect …

This luxuriantly rich, vegetarian curry – a cousin of butter chicken, which is thought to have been created in the postwar kitchens of Delhi’s Moti Mahal, though by whom is the subject of hot dispute – is, according to chef Vivek Singh, “the most famous and widely interpreted dish in India”. His fellow chef Sanjeev Kapoor describes it as “one of the bestselling dishes in restaurants” there, but here in the UK, though it’s no doubt widely enjoyed, it seems to fly somewhat under the radar on menus, where even the chicken original plays second fiddle to our beloved chicken tikka masala.If you haven’t yet fallen for the crowdpleasing charms of fresh cheese in a mild tomato sauce, consider this a strong suggestion to give it a whirl. Paneer makhni (makhni being the Hindi word for butter, hence also dal makhni), tastes incredibly fancy, but it’s relatively simple and quick to make. Just add bread and a vegetable side to turn it into a full feast

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Fluffy and fabulous! 17 ways with marshmallows – from cheesecake to salad to an espresso martini

They come into their own around Thanksgiving in the US, used alongside savoury dishes, as well as in desserts. Now is the time to try them with sweet potatoes, in a strawberry mousse, or even with soupThe connection between marsh mallow the herbaceous perennial, also known as althaea officinalis, and marshmallow the puffy cylindrical sweet, is historic. In the 19th century, the sap of the plant was still a key ingredient of its confectionary namesake, along with sugar and egg whites. But that connection has long been severed: the modern industrial marshmallow is derived from a mixture of sugar, water and gelatine. Its main ingredient is air

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The Shaston Arms, London W1: ‘Just because you can do things doesn’t mean you should do them’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants

A pub that wants to be an old-school boozer and a cool restaurant both at the same timeWhile perched inside what felt like a repurposed bookshelf at the draughty back end of the Shaston Arms, sitting next to the dumb waiter and waiting for the ping to herald the arrival of my £16 plate of red mullet with squid ink rice, I had time to consider yet again the so-called “pub revival” in cool modern hospitality. Old boozers are reclaimed, reloved and restored, and the great tradition of going down the pub is celebrated. The Devonshire in nearby Piccadilly is, of course, the daddy, the Darth Vader of this trend, winning plaudits, TikTok adoration and celebrity fans aplenty. So it’s no wonder that myriad other hospitality operators have cast an eye over their local neglected fleapit and thought: “Let’s buy some Mr Sheen, give that old hovel a polish and start serving duck à l’orange and flourless chocolate tart. It’s all the rage! Gen Z loves it!”Whether Gen Z really does love anything about the pub experience as it was in the 20th century is debatable, however, because inside these poshed-up spit-and-sawdust boozers, all the phlegm and fag ash has gone – as have the dartboards, pool tables, punch-ups, topless women on KP peanut pub cards and the ever-present bar-fly alcoholic drinking himself yellow while droning on about his marital problems

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Goblets of borscht, turkey-shaped madeleines: why Martha Stewart’s fantastical menus are still an inspiration

The celebrations were imminent and the greenhouse ready to accommodate – among the orchids, in unseasonable November warmth – an intimate Hawaiian luau. The table was set with giant clam shells for serving vessels and miniature hibachis for grilling Dungeness crab. Somebody had found a small, pink pineapple and secured it on the watermelon like a brooch. The hostess considered the merits of a hula dancer, but in the end settled on a more succinct spectacle: a 19lb suckling pig, enwreathed with sub-tropical flowers and caparisoned in bronze.It was, and could only ever have been, a Martha Stewart affair

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Winter has finally kicked in – it’s time to crack out the casserole dish and get stewing

At the risk of sounding like a British cliche, can we take a moment to discuss the change in the weather? This week’s sudden drop in temperature has our house excited for potential snow (the children are giddy), with everything suddenly feeling a lot more wintry. New coats are on the hooks, thermals are being dug out and a casserole dish filled with some sort of soup, stew or stock seems to be permanently ticking away on the hob. These range from quick, warming weeknight dinners to leisurely, slow-cooked weekend meals.The Guardian’s journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link