Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.It’s a massive day for GDP data, as growth figures from across the Eurozone – and then North America – are released through the day.They’ll give us an insight into how the world economy fared in the first quarter of this year, a time dominated by Donald Trump’s second presidency, and the trade war that sent ripples around the globe.And France has got us up and running, with new data showing that its economy has avoided falling into recession.French GDP rose by 0.

1% in January-March, statistics body INSEE reports.That follows a 0.1% contraction in October-December 2024, and means France has avoided shrinking for two quarters in a row (a technical recession).But, such growth as there was came from a rise in inventories, as companies stocked up – perhaps in preparation for new tariffs.That added 0.

5% to French GDP.INSEE reports that final domestic demand and household consumption both stalled.Investment, or “gross fixed capital formation”, shrank by 0.2%.Foreign trade kept contributing negatively to GDP growth in the first quarter (-0.

4 points after -0,1 points): exports fell sharply this quarter (-0,7% after +0,2%), while imports rose again (+0,4% after +0.

5%).France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel was reported at 0.1% in Q1 from -0.1% in the previous period.It was expected at 0.

2%,France's GDP growth returns to positive territory but falls short of expectations, indicating a modest recovery,Potential downward pressure on the euro, but…We’ll hear from Germany, Italy, and the full eurozone this morning,This afternoon, investors will be bracing for the latest US GDP report which will show how America’s economy fared under Donald Trump, as recession fears rise…,6.

30am BST: France’s GDP report for Q1 20147am BST: Nationwide’s UK house price index for April9am BST: Germany’s GDP report for Q1 20249am BST: Italy’s GDP report for Q1 202410am BST: Eurozone GDP report for Q1 202412pm BST: Mexico’s GDP report for Q1 20241,30pm BST: US GDP report for Q1 20241,30pm BST: Canada’s GDP report for FebruaryThailand’s central bank has cut interest rates, in a sign of concern that the US trade was could hurt its economy,The Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee voted 5-2 to reduce the one-day repurchase rate by a quarter of one percentage point, to 1,75%, the lowest level in two years.

The central bank warned that the Thai economy is projected to expand at a slower pace than anticipated, with more downside risks due to uncertainty in major economies’ trade policies and a decline in the number of tourists,Announcing today’s decision, it explained:The U,S,trade policies and potential retaliations from major economies will cause significant changes in the global economic, financial, and trade landscape,This process is only beginning and subject to high uncertainties, with the global economy likely to grow at a slower pace.

The situation is expected to be prolonged, leading to structural changes and lower efficiency in global trade and production.The unpredictable nature of future global trade policies of major economies continues to pose significant challenges in assessing the economic and inflation outlook going forward.The British sportscar maker Aston Martin is limiting imports to the US in the face of Donald Trump’s tariffs.Aston Martin, known for producing the cars driven by James Bond in the spy films, said it was “currently limiting imports to the US while leveraging the stock held by our US dealers”.The US is the key market for the lossmaking carmaker, which generated about a third of its £1.

6bn revenue for 2024 in the country,It said on Wednesday it was “carefully monitoring the evolving US tariff situation” and would “respond to changes in the operating environment as they materialise”,Fellow carmakers Stellantis and Mercedes have withdrawn their financial guidance for the year this morning, blaming the uncertainty around changing US policy on import levies,Barclays bank has set aside more cash for bad debts due to worries over the US economy and a mounting global trade war,Its latest financial results show that Barclays has increased its provisions for loans expected to turn sour to £643m, up from £513m.

This was largely due to £74m put by for “elevated US macroeconomic uncertainty”.Barclays says:The Group continues to monitor the heightened uncertainty in the near-term macroeconomic outlook, especially in the US.The bank also reported a 19% rise in pre-tax profits to £2.72bn for the three months to March 31.Finland’s economy has managed modest growth in the last quarter.

Gross domestic product in Finland rose by 0.1% in January to March from the previous quarter, the country’s statistics office reported this morning.France’s economy is likely to “flirt with stagnation” throughout the year, despite the small rebound in GDP in the last quarter, predicts Dutch bank ING.Charlotte de Montpellier, ING’s senior economist for France and Switzerland, explains:The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy’s rebound.We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.

1%.Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year.The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumption, and the savings rate is set to remain high.French GDP has rebounded slightly, but we still think the country's economy is likely to flirt with stagnation throughout the remainder of the year.Here's why, from @CdeMontpellier https://t.

co/ygOvHbQtq5 pic.twitter.com/GoURRlGxZHThere’s better news from Austria, where the economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter during the first three months of 2025.That’s according to the Wifo institute, a Vienna-based think tank.

It reports that industrial production rose by 0,6%, but there was a small contraction in services and in investments,Hungary is on the brink of recession after new data showed its economy contracted in the first three months of this year,Hungarian GDP fell by 0,2% in January-March, the country’s Central Statistical Office has reported, adding that “Industry and construction slowed the economic performance”.

That’s a blow to prime minister Viktor Orban, as Bloomberg explains:Orban, who had pledged to voters that the economy would get off to a “flying start” this year after a recession in 2024, has had to walk back growth projections.Under pressure to kickstart growth, Orban has announced a series of pre-election tax cuts, including expanding personal income tax exemptions to mothers and value-added tax rebates to pensioners.These, in turn, have forced the government to scrap budget targets for this year and next.Hungary’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter due to an industry slump, highlighting the country’s trade exposure even before Donald Trump embarked on a global tariff war https://t.co/MRjc5W5N2nDonald Trump’s trade war has disrupted the diamond trade, according to producer Gem Diamonds this morning.

Gem, which owns the Letšeng diamond mine in Lesotho and the Ghaghoo mine in Botswana, has told the City that its sale of large diamonds scheduled for the first quarter of this year was held over “because of US tariff uncertainty”,These goods are scheduled to be sold in the second quarter of 2025,This delay led to a 33% drop in Gem’s sales in the last quarter, to $21,6m,Economists are concerned that France’s economy remains weak, after it posted modest growth of 0.

1% in the last quarter this morning,Bloomberg Economics says:“Business surveys suggest that this rebound in activity is already losing some momentum going into the second quarter,The services sector is still lagging while the manufacturing sector appears to be bracing for tariffs,We anticipate sluggish GDP growth of 0,1% in the second quarter, as tighter financial conditions and the impact of tariffs weigh on investment.

Overall, our baseline forecast is for 2025 output growth is 0,5%,”Fund manager Mario Cavaggioni agrees that activity remains weak:France GDP Q1 q/q +0,1% (est +0,1%, last -0.

1%)France GDP Q1 y/y +0.8% (est +0.7%, last +0.8% from +0.6%)Slightly positive surprise for me, as my model penciled a 0%/-0.

1% q/q, but the whole picture confirms that activity remains weak,,,Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has reported that the spring selling season “has progressed as expected”, despite the macroeconomic volatility triggered by the US trade war,The company told shareholders that some customers are facing “ongoing affordability challenges”, particularly in the south of England (where prices are higher), but that it is still seeing good quality customer interest.

Over the last year, Taylor Wimpey’s sales rate has run at 0.77 per outlet per week, up from 0.74 a year earlier, with a cancellation rate of 16% (up from 13%).Jennie Daly, chief executive, says:“The Spring selling season has progressed in line with expectations, with good levels of customer demand reflected in our sales rate.As a result, we are today reiterating our guidance for full year UK completions excluding JVs [joint ventures] and Group operating profit.

Notwithstanding the wider macroeconomic backdrop, affordability is improving with lenders remaining committed to the housing market, albeit first time buyers continue to experience some challenges.According to @AskNationwide post stamp duty holiday, UK house price growth slowed to 3.4%, from 3.9%.Month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects, house prices fell by 0.

6% to £270,752 as the market readjusted to the new norm.Moving forward the market is expected to… pic.twitter.com/60pVGq9qheAverage UK house prices fell this month, lender Nationwide reports, after the rush to avoid an increase in stamp duty faded.According to Nationwide, house prices fell by 0