‘I am losing faith’: disaffected Scottish voters may deny SNP a majority
It was supposed to be a carefully choreographed walkabout for John Swinney through his party’s target seat of Hamilton,Instead, the Scottish National party leader was confronted by angry voters, including his own,Natasha Kelly, 35, railed against the local council’s failure to improve the damp council flat that had left her 13- and eight-year-old boys with chronic asthma,A pro-independence SNP voter, she is wavering,Swinney briefly placated her with the promise of immediate action by his candidate.
“I do believe in the SNP but I am losing faith vastly,” she said.“I can’t be concerned with my own country when I’m concerned about my sons.”Gavin Boyle, the owner of a popular Glasgow bar, was furious at his 438% hike in business rates, which has raised the venue’s bill to £645,000.Swinney tried to placate him too.That failed.
He won’t vote SNP, nor for another party.“They’re as bad as each other,” he said.And the daughter of an elderly woman struggling with failing social care wept as she spoke to the first minister.It was a rare insight into public emotions after a campaign that has been “uninspiring, short of fresh policy and ideas, and failed to make an impression on voters”, according to the polling analyst Mark Diffley.This lack of enthusiasm has resulted in the most unpredictable Scottish election for more than a decade, where expectations may yet be upended by turnout and tactical voting.
On Wednesday evening, the Diffley Partnership, an independent polling organisation, said its final projections showed the SNP would fall well short of the 65 seats needed for a majority.The company said that, based on the last five polls of the campaign, the party would win 56 seats, while Labour would have its worst Holyrood performance, with 18 – one seat behind Reform on 19.The Greens would win the highest number of seats in the party’s history, with 16, and the Conservatives would win 11, narrowly escaping the embarrassment of coming last.The Liberal Democrats would take nine.Scottish Labour, meanwhile, held its noisy eve-of-poll rally in Glasgow, where the party faces challenges from the SNP and Reform UK.
Some pollsters calculate Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, could lose Dumbarton, a seat she has held since 1999, to the SNP – a forecast she dismisses, firmly,Amping up the crowd, the party leader, Anas Sarwar, had supporters chanting the core doorstep message: “Reject Reform, beat the SNP, change Scotland and vote Scottish Labour,”Despite the buoyant mood in Glasgow, in private Scottish Labour admits it will not beat the SNP, but argues Sarwar could still be in a position to challenge Swinney for first minister,Senior figures are adamant that their doorstep data means they could win up to 23 constituency seats, and a swathe of regional top-ups,Over the past 72 hours of campaigning, Labour has staked £200,000 on the heaviest social media advertising campaign yet in a Scottish election, in an attempt, said one source, to “flood the zone” and pick up wavering voters.
A senior source predicted Labour will come second “unless something pretty seismic happens in the next few days.I think the SNP will be down quite substantially.I don’t think they will be in the 60s: might be in the 50s or might be lower than that.”Polling earlier in the campaign revealed an unusually high number of undecideds, and Scottish Labour figures insist more don’t knows are switching to them than any other party, but they acknowledge losing some working-class voters to Reform and the SNP.The SNP has shown some signs of nervousness, doubling down on its core vote strategy in the final days by pledging a vote on independence powers on day one of the new parliament.
This may suggest it is in a weaker position than it would like to be.A-list supporters such as the actors Martin Compston and Alan Cummings have been drafted in, the latter urging supporters on Instagram and instructing fellow pro-independence Green supporters to choose the nationalists “in every constituency”.The Scottish Greens, who hope to win at least one breakthrough constituency this election, are not standing in every constituency, which some observers believe is a tactical error as it leaves independence supporters who are unhappy with the SNP without an alternative.Reform’s campaign has been chaotic, dogged by candidate resignations and revelations of social media racism, and overshadowed by headline-grabbing announcements from the UK leadership.Reform’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, has struggled to cut through with voters, while his boast on a televised leaders’ debate about having “six houses, five boats and six cars” invited derision from his opponents.
Research for More in Common suggests that Scottish Reform voters are less enthused than in England or Wales,This matters, given the uncertainty about who will vote Reform on Thursday – regular voters who have dumped mainstream parties or non-voters enthused by its disruptive offer – and how likely they are to turn out on the day, especially given local reports that the party lacks a ground operation even in areas where it is popular, such as Aberdeen,
Fertiliser shortages to have dramatic effect on food prices, says Duke of Westminster’s firm
Fertiliser shortages caused by the Iran war have driven up costs for UK farmers by up to 70% and will have a “dramatic” impact on food prices globally next year, according to one of Britain’s most powerful property and farming companies.Mark Preston, executive trustee of the 349-year-old Grosvenor Group, controlled by the Duke of Westminster, said fertiliser “was already quite expensive” before the 50% to 70% surge in prices since the start of the Iran war in late February.The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz – which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday could soon reopen – has throttled global supplies of fertiliser, crucial to growing food crops.Preston said that, although UK crops were unlikely to be affected this year as most fertiliser had already been used, the knock-on effect could arrive next year. “Farmers are not buying that fertiliser, they’re sitting on their hands and hoping things will improve, which they probably won’t,” he said
JD Sports says Iran war could hit consumer spending and raise prices
The sports fashion retailer JD has warned that profits will fall this year amid a “muted market” hit by weaker spending by young people and concerns about the Middle East conflict.The company, which runs 4,800 stores worldwide including the JD, Blacks and Millets chains in the UK, said it expected profits of between £750m and £850m in the year ahead, after reporting £852m in the year to the end of January.JD said there had been “no material business impact to date” from the conflict in the Middle East, where it operates a small number of stores through franchise agreements.However, it said that the Iran war could push up costs and prices. It said: “Over time, the potential future impacts of heightened uncertainty may contribute to direct cost pressures, including energy and fuel costs across our store and logistics networks, respectively, as well as potential indirect impacts on pricing and consumer demand should input cost inflation emerge
Climate campaigners attack Shell over ‘windfall’ profits from Iran war
Shell has reported better than expected profits of $6.9bn (£5bn) after its oil traders reaped the benefits of soaring energy prices during the war in Iran, angering climate campaigners.Europe’s biggest oil and gas company posted a 115% jump in first-quarter profits from the $3.2bn reported in the last three months of 2025.The profits easily surpassed the $6
Cut UK speed limits to reduce Iran war impact on consumers, thinktank urges
Britain should lower speed limits for drivers as part of a package of measures to reduce the impact of the Iran war on consumers, a thinktank has said.Capping legal speeds at 20mph in towns and cities and 60mph on motorways would help reduce fuel demand and combat soaring oil prices triggered by conflict, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).The institute said ministers should also temporarily cut fuel duty by 10p and bring in a new energy price cap of £2,000 a year to support consumers, while warning that inflation could peak as high as 5.8% if nothing is done to prevent it.“The UK cannot afford to sit back and let another energy shock drive up inflation and damage the economy,” said William Ellis, a senior economist at the IPPR
Oil prices fall as Trump says strait of Hormuz ‘open to all’ if Iran accepts deal
Oil prices fell and stock markets rose as Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end and the strait of Hormuz would be “open to all” if Tehran struck a deal with Washington.The US president posted on social media: “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran.”However, he added that if Iran did not strike a deal, “the bombing starts” and “it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before”.It came after the president said he would briefly pause his “Project Freedom” operation escorting ships through the strait, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies but has been blockaded by Iran since late February, triggering a global energy crisis.Trump said he was stopping the operation for “a short period” so he could finalise a deal with Tehran but added that his blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place
Trainline says Middle East tensions hitting European rail bookings
Trainline has said the US standoff with Iran is hitting its revenues, with rail ticket sales to foreign visitors to Europe affected.The UK-based international ticketing agent said it expected revenues to stay flat or decline over the coming year, citing “the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe”.Airlines have reported later bookings, with considerable consumer uncertainty around summer travel plans. The US-Israel war on Iran, closure of the strait of Hormuz and subsequent blockades have raised doubts about global jet fuel supply, with carriers already beginning to cancel thousands of flights.Shares in the company fell on its earnings guidance, with Middle East tensions adding to Trainline’s prior warnings of headwinds, including UK ticketing policy
Keir Starmer makes late pitch to voters turning to Greens and Reform
Cameo, speeches, pushing gold bullion: how Farage has made millions since becoming an MP
Nigel Farage’s income since being elected MP has hit £2m, analysis shows
‘I am losing faith’: disaffected Scottish voters may deny SNP a majority
‘Climate solutions will bring down bills and restore nature’: green issues and May elections
Burnham sparks Labour anger with plan to appear at event alongside Greens