Tory defections to Reform are disaster for Badenoch – but Farage needs to tread carefully
Jake Berry has had an eclectic political career in the run-up to his defection to Reform UK this week.An enthusiastic campaigner for remain at the referendum, he became a big champion of Boris Johnson, then backed the most moderate candidate, Tom Tugendhat, for party leader.But after Tugendhat inevitably faltered, he became one of the loudest enthusiasts for Liz Truss’s premiership, under which he was given the post of Tory chair.After her brief leadership ended in collapse, Berry was one of the party’s most restive malcontents.Now, he says, the future is Reform.
The statement from his former local party pulls no punches, accusing him of wallowing in “grievances of the past” and saying the former MP “never truly recovered from the downfall of Liz Truss – a prime minister whose brief and chaotic tenure he enthusiastically supported”.After that came “disengagement … from the serious business of representing his constituents”.Berry’s decision to defect has caused a lot of anger in the party – coming on the heels of another former cabinet minister David Jones.It is a serious problem for the Conservative party if defections continue apace.And the most serious are the defections such as Berry – eccentric as his political ideology may seem – for two reasons.
First, as a former party chair he has significant organising experience, which has always been a weakness in the Reform party because of the relative lack of experience among the grassroots,The more experienced Tories defect, including local association chairs and party agents, the more Reform gains vital ground game knowledge – mostly at the expense of the Tories,Second, and perhaps even more damagingly, it sends a signal that there are many ambitious Tory ex-MPs who do not feel ready to be put out to pasture – and they do not see the Conservative party as their route back to relevance any time soon,Because of the scale of the party’s losses in July, there are many former Tory MPs who are relatively young and who might have hoped to find a return to parliament,Berry’s defection shows he has come to the conclusion it is a mug’s game to attempt to do that via their old party.
How can Badenoch respond to that when her party may yet slip to fourth below the Liberal Democrats? Can she promise them, seriously, that if they stay the course they can find their way back to a safer seat?There is one saving grace for the Conservatives.There may come a point where it becomes much more unpalatable for Reform to continue to act as a retirement home for failed Conservative politicians.Berry’s defection is probably still a net positive, but if hordes of his ilk begin to follow then there will come a time when that becomes deeply awkward for a party that has made gains on the back of Conservative failures.Can Nigel Farage truly claim to be running an insurgent party railing against the chaos of the past 14 years of Tory rule – especially the perceived failures on migration – if his party is suddenly stuffed full of former Tory ministers hoping desperately to now stand for Reform and return to parliament under his banner?What if – for example – Truss was to offer to join? Farage lavished praise on her mini-budget initially – but the taint of her tenure may be too much.The former home secretary Suella Braverman has long been tipped as one of the most likely to jump ship – and has been a loud advocate of the Conservatives needing to do a pact with Reform at the next election.
Farage has dismissed that suggestion because of the need for the party to eat as much of the Tory lunch as possible in order to gain enough votes to win seats.There was one interesting voice warning Farage against the temptation to accept more former Conservative MPs.It came from Rael Braverman – the husband of Suella – who is now a high-profile supporter of Reform.“Reform must not become Tory 2.0,” he posted on X – following it with a dismissive – “Jake who?”
Ministers propose voting changes for mayoral elections in English devolution bill
Ministers are changing the voting system for mayoral elections in a move likely to make it harder for Reform politicians to take big regions like Lincolnshire and Hull as they did this year.The changes are part of a new devolution bill, intended to bring a “radical reset to local government”, which will take further steps towards merging many district and county councils into unitary “strategic” authorities.The move is likely to please Labour MPs and local authorities after frustration over losses in two recent contests where Andrea Jenkyns, a Reform mayor, was elected on 42% of the vote in Lincolnshire, while Luke Campbell, the Reform mayor in Hull and East Yorkshire, got 35%.In another part of the legislation, mayors will now be elected under a preferential system, rather than first-past-the-post, a change designed to make sure candidates have broader support.The changes reverse a decision made by the Conservatives in 2022 to switch the system to first-past-the-post away from supplementary voting – where voters have a preferred first and second choice and the candidate does not win outright with more than half the vote
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Term ‘disabled’ in danger of losing all meaning, says Badenoch
The leader of the Conservatives, Kemi Badenoch, has said she does not believe one in four people are disabled and the term is in danger of losing its meaning, as she used a speech to criticise the size of the welfare state.Badenoch called for restrictions on disability benefits for those suffering conditions including food intolerances, anxiety and mild depression.She made the speech at the Centre for Social Justice a week after Keir Starmer’s government scaled back the extent of its cuts to disability benefits in the face of a huge revolt from backbench Labour MPs and disability rights groups.The backlash continues, with charities saying “huge swathes” of severely disabled people would be affected by the planned universal credit cuts.However, Badenoch said the cuts do not go far enough, with the Conservatives having tabled proposals to stop sickness benefits going to foreign nationals
Tory defections to Reform are disaster for Badenoch – but Farage needs to tread carefully
Jake Berry has had an eclectic political career in the run-up to his defection to Reform UK this week. An enthusiastic campaigner for remain at the referendum, he became a big champion of Boris Johnson, then backed the most moderate candidate, Tom Tugendhat, for party leader.But after Tugendhat inevitably faltered, he became one of the loudest enthusiasts for Liz Truss’s premiership, under which he was given the post of Tory chair. After her brief leadership ended in collapse, Berry was one of the party’s most restive malcontents. Now, he says, the future is Reform
Former Conservative party chair Jake Berry defects to Reform UK
The former Conservative party chair Sir Jake Berry has joined Reform UK in the most high-profile defection so far to Nigel Farage’s party from the Tories.In a fresh blow to Kemi Badenoch, the former cabinet minister said his former party had “abandoned the British people” and said he wanted to see Reform UK form the next government.Berry, a close ally of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, led the “northern powerhouse” group of MPs but lost his seat at the 2024 election. He said the Conservatives and Labour had “wrecked” the country over the past 20 years.In an article for the Sun, Berry said he was leaving the Conservative party after 25 years as a member and 14 as an MP
Ex-Reform UK MP’s business affairs referred to fraud body
The former Reform UK MP James McMurdock’s business affairs during the Covid pandemic have been referred to the Public Sector Fraud Authority, the Guardian understands.It follows a referral by the Covid corruption commissioner on Wednesday. The authority will investigate the evidence and work with relevant agencies if required.McMurdock, the MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock in Essex, surrendered the party whip last weekend in anticipation of revelations in the Sunday Times, which claimed there were questions over loans totalling tens of thousands of pounds.It was reported that he took out £70,000 in loans in 2020 from the government’s bounce back scheme
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