Oil prices plunge and stocks jump after Trump announces conditional ceasefire with Iran

A picture


Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday and global stock markets rallied after the US and Iran agreed a two-week conditional ceasefire,Investors welcomed the news that Donald Trump had held off on his threat to bomb Iran into “the stone ages”, while Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said passage through the strait of Hormuz would be allowed for the next two weeks under the management of Iran’s military,Wall Street recorded its biggest single-day rally in a year,Oil fell below the $100-a-barrel mark, even though it was not certain that the US would accept a 10-point proposal drawn up by Iran,How the strait will be reopened and managed beyond the two-week grace period is yet to be determined.

Brent crude oil, the international standard, dropped by 16%, while US crude oil futures sank by 17.6%.However, prices later recovered off their lows as Israel launched its biggest attacks yet on Lebanon and on reports that Iran halted the passage of oil tankers because of an alleged Israeli ceasefire breach.Reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s huge east-west pipeline to the Red Sea, which allowed oil exports to avoid the strait, also nudged prices higher.Kathleen Brooks, a research director at the trading platform XTB, said markets would be monitoring the fragile truce.

“Only if the US or Iran walk away from the ceasefire completely and bombing restarts do we see the oil price potentially surging back to the highs of this week above $110 per barrel for Brent crude, which could also cause stocks and bonds to slump,” she said.By late Wednesday afternoon London time, Brent crude was down 13.5% at $94.36 a barrel.US crude was down 15.

5% at $95,36 a barrel, heading for its biggest one-day fall since the Covid-19 lockdowns six years ago,The prices remain well above where they were before the start of the Iran war, when Brent traded below $73 a barrel,Reuters reported on Wednesday that investors placed a combined $950m bet on oil prices falling, hours before the ceasefire was announced,With just over an hour until his deadline was due to pass on Tuesday, the US president said he was holding off on threatened attacks on Iran, subject to Tehran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and reopening the strait of Hormuz.

Soon after, Iran’s national security council confirmed it had accepted a two-week ceasefire if attacks against Iran were halted.Tehran said peace negotiations with the US would begin in Islamabad on Friday.European stock markets rallied strongly on Wednesday.The pan-European Stoxx 600 index gained 3.7%, its biggest one-day rise in a year.

Travel and leisure stocks soared, with Air France gaining 13%, Lufthansa’s shares jumping by 8%, the British Airways owner, IAG, up 8%, and the holiday group Tui gaining almost 10%,In London, the FTSE 100 index closed up 2,5% at 10,608,9 points, its highest end-of-day level since the early days of the Iran war,Oil company shares tumbled, though, with BP down 6% and Shell losing 4.

7%,US stock markets also jumped as Wall Street hailed the ceasefire, with the benchmark S&P 500 rallying by 2,5% to 6,782,81,The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 1,300 points, or 2.

9% – its best day since April 2025 – to finish at 47,909.92 as travel company shares soared but oil producers slumped.The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite meanwhile advanced 2.8% to 22,634.99.

That followed strong gains in Asia Pacific markets, where Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained more than 5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 2.55% and South Korea’s Kospi soared by 7.5%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 3.1%, while China’s CSI 300 index gained 3.

2%,European gas prices slumped, with the month-ahead UK gas contract down 17% at 111,1p a therm on Wednesday afternoon,Jim Reid, a markets strategist at Deutsche Bank, said: “Investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief that an off-ramp out of the war is being taken even as there’ll be various elements to watch to see whether this leads to sustained de-escalation,“Will the ceasefire hold? We saw some strikes by Israel and Iran overnight, though these may have been in the works before the conditional ceasefire.

We’ve also seen conflicting commentary on whether the ceasefire will extend to Israel’s action in Lebanon.Can talks lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities?”In the bond market, treasury yields eased on word of a potential ceasefire.The yield (or interest rate) on the 10-year treasury fell to 4.24%, from 4.30% earlier on Tuesday.

UK government bond prices strengthened, pushing down the yield on 10-year UK debt to 4,7%, down from 4,9% on Tuesday,Gold prices rose more than 2% to $4,812 an ounce,Cryptocurrencies also rallied, with bitcoin advancing 2.

9% to $71,327, and ether climbing 5.6% to $2,234.Saul Kavonic, the head of energy research at MST Financial, said the two-week pause provided “an off-ramp for Trump’s overly bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off-ramp for oil markets or the war”.He told Reuters it was unlikely oil and LNG production would resume until there was more confidence in a lasting ceasefire.Kavonic said: “A two-week ceasefire would enable a release of some oil and LNG tankers from the strait of Hormuz to market, providing some market pressure relief in May.

This does not result in more production, just a release of storage on water.”For markets, the most critical issue remains the status of the strait of Hormuz, said Neil Shearing, the group chief economist at Capital Economics.He said: “The [10-point] framework appears to allow the full passage of oil tankers through the strait, but the terms under which this would occur remain unclear.Some reports suggest the introduction of transit fees of around $1m-$2m per tanker.“Given that tankers typically carry 1-2m barrels of crude, such fees would add roughly $1 per barrel to the cost of oil transported through the strait.

This would therefore have only a modest impact on global energy prices, though in practice it could amount to a de facto partial nationalisation of the shipping route,”Prashant Newnaha, a senior strategist at the Singapore-based TD Securities, said a renewed escalation could not be ruled out “but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal and all parties involved will sell the ceasefire as a major win”,He said: “Looking further out, oil prices are not returning to prewar levels,This will leave inflation persistence as a key theme for markets to ponder,”Associated Press contributed reporting
trendingSee all
A picture

Head of IMF says Iran war will permanently scar global economy even if peace is reached

The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the Iran war will permanently scar the global economy even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached.In a speech delivered as the ceasefire in the conflict threatened to unravel, Kristalina Georgieva said the “scarring effects” caused by the war to date would mean slower global growth this year than first anticipated.Had it not been for the outbreak of the conflict six weeks ago, the IMF would have upgraded its global growth outlook for 2026, Georgieva said. “But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade. Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo

A picture

Lidl to open 50 UK stores in year ahead as part of £600m expansion plans

Lidl is to open 50 new UK stores in the year ahead as it aims to overtake Morrisons as the country’s fifth largest supermarket chain.The German-owned retailer, which now has more than 1,000 British stores, said it planned to invest more than £600m in UK growth, creating almost 2,000 jobs as it expands its warehouse and logistic network to supply its new outlets.The new locations include Abbots Langley near Watford, Warrington in Cheshire, and Thornbury in Gloucestershire, all of which will open this summer.The 50 store openings in the next 12 months compares with 40 in the year to February 2026 and just one closure. Lidl GB does not expect any closures in the year ahead

A picture

Britons warned about Russian hackers targeting internet routers for espionage

Russian hackers are exploiting commonly sold internet routers to harvest information for espionage purposes, the UK’s cybersecurity agency has said.The hack could allow attackers to obtain users’ credentials, redirect them to fake sites, and potentially access other devices on their home network such as phones and PCs, said Alan Woodward, a professor at the University of Surrey.The National Cyber Security Centre said on Tuesday the operations were “believed to be opportunistic in nature, with the actor targeting a wide pool of victims and then likely filtering down for users of potential intelligence value at each stage of the exploitation chain”.It follows a common pattern of cyber-actors targeting edge devices – hardware such as internet routers or internet-connected security cameras – that act as a bridge between users and the cloud.Woodward said: “It’s not the first time that warnings have come out about routers

A picture

The life-changing magic of wearing smartglasses | Letters

I read with sympathy the concerns of Elle Hunt in relation to privacy issues around Meta smartglasses (I wore Meta’s smartglasses for a month – and it left me feeling like a creep, 1 April). Clearly there needs to be ongoing development of technology and protocols that protect the public from ill-intentioned users. As the chief executive of a charity supporting people with a visual impairment, however, I would like to emphasise the point touched upon in your article: how transformative this technology is already proving for blind people.We are seeing significant numbers of our visually impaired staff and clients using Meta glasses in conjunction with their mobile phones to improve their ability to perform ordinary functions that most of us take for granted. A visual impairment can be disempowering and isolating

A picture

Gout and Kennedy renew rivalry, Hull eyes history as Australian athletics puts its best on show

Australia’s top sprinters lock horns again while the track queen is out to complete the set of middle-distance crowns at the national championships in SydneyAn array of exotic, well-trimmed dogs will parade around Sydney Olympic Park this weekend as part of the Royal Easter Show. The zoomies, however, will be across the road.Australia’s best athletes led by sprinter Gout Gout will dash around the newly laid blue track at the Athletic Centre, while others fly over bars or into sand.The immediate goal is a national title and selection for this year’s Commonwealth Games or World Junior Championships teams. But this meet arrives at a time when the sport is building towards Los Angeles 2028 and on towards Brisbane 2032, and a new crop of athletes is out to prove their era has arrived

A picture

Meet JJ van der Mescht, the 6ft 7in, 146kg Saint: ‘A fly-half trapped in a second-row’s body’

Cometh the hour, cometh the big man. There are certain situations when size matters on a rugby field and the 6ft 7in tall, 23 stone JJ van der Mescht is the larger-than-life proof. If spectators at the Rec on Friday feel the ground beneath them shake as Northampton run out to face Bath in their keenly awaited Champions Cup quarter-final, there will be a giant-sized reason why.Clearly Saints will also bring their razor-sharp running game but even Bath’s meatier forwards should brace themselves. There is invariably a major collision when the massive Van der Mescht thunders into contact and asks the direct questions that led South Africa to include their exiled lock in an alignment squad ahead of their July Tests against England, Scotland and Wales