Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.With the year almost over, thoughts are lightly turning to what might happen in 2026.And lender Nationwide is predicting that UK house prices will climb by up to 4% next year, as getting onto the housing ladder becomes slightly less difficult.In their Outlook for 2026, Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner predicts that lower borrowing costs could help the market in the 12 months ahead, saying:“Looking ahead, we expect housing market activity to strengthen a little further as affordability improves gradually (as it has been in recent quarters) via income growth outpacing house price growth and a further modest decline in interest rates.We expect annual house price growth to remain broadly in the 2 to 4% range next year.

The next decline in interest rates could come as early as this Thursday, when the Bank of England is generally expected to lower its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%.Gardner suggests that chancellor Rachel Reeves’s new taxes on the top of the property markets are unlikely to have a major impact on prices in 2026 – but new levies on landlords could make it pricier to rent":“The changes to property taxes announced in the Budget are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market.The high value council tax surcharge is not being introduced until April 2028 and will apply to less than 1% of properties in England and around 3% in London.The increase in taxes on income from properties may dampen buy-to-let activity further and hold down the supply of new rental properties coming onto the market, which could in turn maintain some upward pressure on private rental growth.

”Looking back over the last year, Gardner reminds us that annual price growth slowed steadily from 4.7% at the end of 2024 to 2.1% in the middle of 2025 and then to 1.8% in November.This has left prices close to the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022.

11am GMT: Eurozone industrial production report for October2.30pm GMT: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for DecemberTime to wrap up…House prices in the UK could rise by as much as 4% next year but getting on the property ladder may become slightly less difficult, according to forecasts from the lender Nationwide.Robert Gardner, the chief economist at the building society, said prices were likely to increase by 2-4%.He said:“We expect housing market activity to strengthen a little further, as affordability improves gradually via income growth outpacing house price growth and a further modest decline in interest rates.”Nationwide also reported that the North-South house price gap narrowed this year.

Rival lender Halifax predicted a slightly smaller rise, of 1%-3% next year.And trade body UK Finance forecast a rise in mortgage lending next year, but a drop in transactions.The predictions came as new data showed first-time buyers are taking out larger mortgages than ever before as rising wages and looser affordability tests allow them to buy properties that were previously beyond their budget.The UK’s financial watchdog said it would consult on changes to the mortgage market, including simplifying mortgage rules to allow more flexible products that better reflect different working patterns and income levels at various stages of life.The FCA is aiming to improve advice to help people “confidently plan for later life”, while encouraging the use of AI to help brokers provide “better and faster advice”.

In other news…The chances of the European trucking industry hitting zero emissions targets are “dire”, an industry body has warned, as it emerged that only a tiny amount of lorries delivering goods in the EU are electric,The private equity owners of the AA, Britain’s biggest roadside recovery business, are looking for a potential £5bn sale or stock market flotation, while the owners of the rival RAC are targeting a London listing with a similar valuation,Over on Wall Street, stocks have opened slightly higher as investors brace for a barrage of economic data that could set the course for interest rates next year,The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20 points, or 0,04%, at 48,477.

91, while the broader S&P 500 index is flat.Banks are rallying, lifting the S&P 500 financial sector to an all-time high.Tomorrow’s delayed US jobs report may give us an indication if America’s labor market is cooling, which could tee up rate cuts in 2026.Trade body UK Finance has predicted mortgage lending will increase in 2026, and that more homeowners will see their homes repossessed because they can’t meet their repayments.In its mortgage market forecast for 2026, UK Finance also predicts there will be fewer property transactions next year, predicting:Overall gross lending rise by four per cent to £300 billion.

10,000 fewer property transactions in 2026 compared to 2025.A 10 per cent rise in external remortgaging and two per cent rise in Product Transfers.1.8 million fixed rate mortgages due to come to an end.A further five per cent fall in arrears.

James Tatch, head of analytics at UK Finance, says:The mortgage market showed strength in 2025, particularly for house purchases,But even with welcome tweaks to lending regulations this year, affordability is now very tight and this is likely to limit borrowing options for potential buyers in 2026,“There was expected growth in remortgage activity this year, and with more households coming off their fixed rates next year, we expect to see further growth in 2026,“Meanwhile, the number of customers in arrears continued to improve as cost and rate pressures eased, and we are now moving towards the historic lows seen in 2022,Although the number of possessions rose, they remain very low by pre-pandemic comparisons.

We do expect a small rise next year, but possessions will remain at low volumes.“As always, help is available for customers who are worried about paying their mortgage.Speak to your lender as early as possible to explore the tailored support options they have available.Over in Spain, Airbnb has been fined €64m for advertising unlicensed tourist rental homes.The Consumer Rights Ministry has announced the penalty as part of a crack down on tourism rentals that use sites such as Airbnb and Booking.

com.Airbnb, which in July withdrew 65,000 listings that the ministry said violated its rules, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The fine can be appealed in court.Reuters reports that the fine is equivalent to six times the profit Airbnb gained from the illegal listings, the ministry said in a statement, and is the second largest the ministry has imposed for breaching consumer rights, consumer rights minister Pablo Bustinduy told reporters, saying:“There are thousands of families living on the edge because of housing, while a few get rich from business models that drive people from their homes.”UK business groups are urging MPs to pass the government’s Employment Rights Bill, after new protections against unfair dismissal were watered down.

Six groups representing British companies have written to Peter Kyle, the Secretary of State for Business and Trade, saying “now is the time for Parliament to pass the Bill,” which was blocked by the House of Lords last week.Although the groups have concerns about parts of the bill, they want to work with the government and trade unions to find “balanced solutions through secondary legislation”, after the Bill has been passed.The groups – the British Chambers of Commerce, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, the Confederation of British Industry, the Federation of Small Businesses, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, and Small Business Britain – say:Business organisations are clear that there remain concerns about many of the powers contained in the Employment Rights Bill.However, to secure the six month qualifying period for unfair dismissal, and to progress further negotiations on the bill in secondary legislation, we believe it should now be passed.We have today exchanged correspondence with the Secretary of State for the Department of Business and Trade setting this position out.

We are pleased the Government has agreed to move forward with tripartite discussions on other key elements of secondary legislation.There remain many areas where compromise will need to be found to get the Bill into a workable state.Late last month, the government ditched its flagship policy to give workers the right to claim unfair dismissal after their first day on the job, in favour of a six month-threshold, as part of deal between business groups and trade union leaders.Encouraging news from the eurozone: industrial output growth has picked up in the single currency bloc.Industry expanded by 0.

8% on the month after a 0.2% increase in September, data from the EU’s statistics agency Eurostat shows.This suggests European factories are recovering as trade uncertainty fades, and energy costs fall.Peter Vanden Houte, ING’s chief economist for the eurozone, says the region’s battered industry is showing signs of life, explaining:The eurozone’s manufacturing sector has had a rough time since 2022 on the back of high energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.On top of that, this year has brought additional headwinds, such as the trade war, a strengthening euro and intensifying Chinese competition.

However, declining oil and gas prices have offered some relief, and reduced inventories are gradually giving way to increased production.We expect the recovery in manufacturing to continue in 2026, now that the German government is finally making some progress with the implementation of its higher defence and infrastructure plans.We must also not forget that the remaining money from the EU’s recovery fund will have to be spent in 2026.The telecoms regulator has launched investigations into EE and Three over UK-wide mobile outages that meant customers’ could not make or receive calls, including emergency services.BT-owned EE, which has around 25 million customers, said that a “software issue” was to blame for the national outage that ran over two days in July.

Separately, Three UK, which has around 10 million customers, has notified Ofcom over an incident that resulted in a UK-wide disruption to call services for one day in June, including the 999 emergency number.Telecoms operators are legally mandated to report outages to Ofcom above a certain impact threshold.A spokesman for Ofcom said:“Our investigations will seek to establish the facts surrounding these incidents, and assess whether there are reasonable grounds to believe that BT and Three have failed to comply with their regulatory obligations.Mobile operators are required to identify and reduce the risks and prepare for the occurrence of anything that compromises the availability, performance or functionality of their network or service.”Last year, BT was fined £17.

5m over a “catastrophic failure” of the 999 and 112 emergency numbers, which it is responsible for connecting callers to in the UK, which affected 14,000 calls during a 10,5 hour outage,We have been blessed with a third house price forecast this morning, this time from Halifax,Halifax is marginally less optimistic than its rival Nationwide; it predicts property prices expected to rise modestly in 2026, by between 1% and 3%,Amanda Bryden, head of Halifax Mortgages, cites signs that affordability is improving, saying:“While affordability remains challenging, the picture has improved compared to recent years, driven by a combination of above-inflation wage growth, lower interest rates and some expansion of eligibility criteria from mortgage lenders.

“For those taking their first steps onto the property ladder, monthly mortgage costs as a share of income are now at their lowest level since 2022, with the rate on a typical two-year first-time buyer mortgage (90% LTV) dropping by roughly 0.8 percentage points over the last year.“The second half of the year was dominated by speculation about potential tax rises in the run up to the Autumn Budget.While this kept market confidence subdued for a time, both prices and activity broadly held steady.“Looking ahead to 2026, we expect house prices to rise modestly, by somewhere between 1% to 3%.

While wage growth is expected to slow and unemployment may edge higher, lower interest rates and easing inflation should help to gradually improve homebuyers’ purchasing power.UK shoppers cracked on with their Christmas shopping last week, new footfall data shows.Data provider MRI Software reports that visits to retailers rose by 3.1% week-on-week in the period from Sunday 7 December to Saturday 13 December.This was mainly driven by a +5% rise in high streets and a +2.

2% uplift in shopping centres,MRI explain:While declines were recorded across the board on Sunday (-9,7%) and Tuesday (-6,2%), this did little to hamper overall trends,Tuesday’s drop was likely exacerbated by adverse weather conditions across parts of the UK, temporarily discouraging trips.

However, footfall rebounded strongly as conditions improved, with visits jumping by +10.7% on Monday and +11.5% on Thursday, driven largely by activity on the high street.This could suggest the festive events and attractions drawing visitors in as well as festive parties whether they be work or social led.This is also reflected in Central London footfall remaining +4.

2% higher week on week and +7.1% year on year however historic and market towns recorded annual declines of -3.3% and -3%, respectively.MRI also predict that footfall is likely to keep rising as we approach ‘Super Saturday’ this coming weekend.Switzerland has lifted its growth outlook for next year, after securing an improved trade deal with the US.

The Swiss government’s panel of economic experts now expects Swiss growth of 1.1% in 2026, up from the 0.9% rate it forecast in October.That’s still below the 1.4% growth rate forecast for 2025.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs explains:“Despite some easing of tensions, uncertainty remains high regarding international economic and trade policy and its macroeconomic impact.“Should any of these risks materialize, further upward pressure on the Swiss franc would be expected.”Growth is expected to rise to 1.7% in 2027.The last full trading week before Christmas has got off to a positive start in the City