The Breakdown | South American rugby success stories propel men's World Cup qualifying
While many fans in the UK ponder the early-season fortunes of their clubs, or perhaps debate selection for the imminent autumn internationals, the qualifying battle for the 2027 Rugby World Cup rages on.Chile sealed their second consecutive appearance at the tournament with a sensational playoff win against Samoa last month, leaving a single spot to be won for Australia in two years’ time.On Saturday Paraguay stunned Brazil 39-19 in the first leg of their playoff.The second leg takes place this Saturday in Jacareí, near São Paulo, as Brazil’s men attempt to emulate the women and qualify for the first time.Whether Paraguay complete a surprise aggregate win, or Brazil recover in the wake of the head coach Emiliano Caffera’s recent dismissal, the lineup for next month’s Dubai qualification tournament will then be locked in.
Namibia, Belgium and Samoa are already confirmed for the Middle Eastern showdown from 8-18 November.There are plenty of moving parts and subplots.Hong Kong China sealed their first qualification after beating Korea 70-22 in July, while Zimbabwe will return to rugby union’s most prestigious stage for the first time since 1991 by virtue of winning the Rugby Africa Cup.The knock-on effect of Chile’s playoff success, meanwhile, is that Los Condores will play Italy for the first time next month in the autumn internationals, due to Samoa’s pressing appointment in Dubai.Alan Gilpin, the World Rugby chief executive, called Chile an “exciting and fast-emerging force” in announcing the fixture in Genoa.
As the Prem’s marketing team continues its quest for bums on seats, Chilean rugby is buoyant.A capacity crowd of more than 20,000 witnessed the playoff win in Viña del Mar and the head coach, Pablo Lemoine, has had the team on an upward trajectory since taking over in 2018.The 50-year-old former Uruguay international prop has been making an impact for decades: signed by Bob Dwyer for Bristol in the late 90s, he ran straight through Danny Grewcock to score against England at the 2003 Rugby World Cup.His influence as national coach has been similarly powerful: Chile have climbed to 17th in the world rankings, their highest position.In France two years ago they were beaten four times, conceding 215 points and scoring 27, including a 71-0 defeat against England and five-try Henry Arundell.
Still they proudly took the positives, and after the draw for 2027 in Sydney on 3 December Lemoine can start planning in earnest.They hosted Scotland last year, defeated 52-11 in front of 24,000 fans, and although they were beaten across two legs by Uruguay in the initial 2027 playoff, they won 21-18 away in Montevideo.Samoa, meanwhile, have not missed a Rugby World Cup since 1991, but are languishing in 16th place in the men’s rankings.They were winless in this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, leading to playoff misery against Chile, and the obligation to meet the likes of Belgium heaps indignity on a proud rugby nation.The former fly-half Tusi Pisi was appointed head coach in April and the towering Saracens lock Theo McFarland is captain, but he was injured for most of the Pacific Nations Cup, and remains sidelined for his club.
Sign up to The BreakdownThe latest rugby union news and analysis, plus all the week's action reviewedafter newsletter promotionBeyond the fortunes of individual nations it is worth reflecting on how different the expanded competition will look in 2027,For the first time there will be a round of 16, with six pools of four rather than four pools of five,Pool-stage jeopardy is significantly reduced because the four best third-placed teams will qualify,The hosts, Australia, are now ranked seventh in the world, meaning they would miss out on top seeding and meet one of South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, France, England or Argentina in Pool A,They could climb into the top six during a busy November, however: England, Italy, Ireland and France are their opponents, with a fixture against Japan in Tokyo also on 25 October.
Wales, meanwhile, are teetering in 12th, with Japan below, and the implications of dropping to 13th and into pot three are potentially severe.Another new dimension for 2027 is the presence of five teams from the Americas: Argentina, Uruguay, USA, Canada and the aforementioned Chile: Paraguay or Brazil would make it six.From World Rugby’s perspective American interest is no bad thing, with the 2031 tournament to be hosted by the USA, and the process to select a host for 2035 was launched by the global governing body last month.First things first, though.The second instalment of Brazil v Paraguay sets up a four-way Dubai shootout, along with a potential rankings shake-up across Europe in November.
No matter how things pan out, Chile’s qualification for a second Rugby World Cup has already made them a resounding success story.This is an extract taken from our weekly rugby union email, the Breakdown.To sign up, just visit this page and follow the instructions.
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