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UK labour market shows signs of stabilising after job losses

about 9 hours ago
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Britain’s employment market has shown signs of stabilising after a sharp rise in job losses earlier this year blamed on tax rises introduced by Rachel Reeves.As the chancellor prepares for her 26 November budget, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to August, up from 4.7% in July.City economists had forecast the rate to remain unchanged.

Separate figures from HMRC showed the number of workers on company payrolls dropped by 10,000 in September,However, the ONS said the slowdown in the jobs market was steadying after steeper declines earlier this year, which had been attributed to tax increases announced by Reeves last year and introduced in April,“After a long period of weak hiring activity, there are signs that the falls we have seen in both payroll numbers and vacancies are now levelling off,” said Liz McKeown, the ONS director of economic statistics,Highlighting a continued slowdown in the jobs market, single-month figures for August showed unemployment rose to 5,3%, the highest rate since October 2020.

The ONS’s figures are based on its widely criticised labour force survey, which has suffered from collapsing response rates.Experts have argued this leaves policymakers “flying blind”, risking decisions being taken based on flawed data.Reeves is expected to raise taxes in the budget.However, business leaders have warned a weaker growth outlook will make it harder for her to raise taxes without harming the economy.Martin Beck, the chief economist at the consultancy WPI Strategy, said: “April’s rise in employer national insurance contributions and the sharp hike in the national living wage have clearly weighed on hiring, but figures over the summer suggest the worst of the damage is passing.

“Even so, the jobs market remains more fragile than at any time in recent years.”Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, said the latest figures showed record numbers of people were in work and looking for a job.“However, there are still too many people locked out of employment or training and missing out on the security a good job provides,” he added.Reflecting the cooling jobs market, annual growth in regular average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, slowed slightly from 4.8% in the three months to July to 4.

7% in the three months to August, matching City economists’ forecasts.The ONS said wage growth had slowed in the private sector to its lowest rate in nearly four years, but public sector pay growth rose, reflecting some pay rises being awarded earlier than they were last year.Annual growth was 6% for the public sector and 4.4% for the private sector.Total pay growth unexpectedly rose from a revised level of 4.

8% in the three months to July to 5% in the three months to August, highlighting resilience in earnings despite a cooling jobs market.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionThe revision, from a previous July reading of 4.7%, also puts millions of people on course for a bigger state pension increase than previously expected.Under the triple lock the state pension is increased each year in line with whichever is the higher of 2.5%, inflation in September or July earnings.

Inflation figures for September are due to be released next week, with the most recent figures showing that the headline rate was 3.8% in August.That suggests pay growth will dictate the triple lock rise, with those on the full new state pension now receiving an increase £13 a year bigger than previously forecast, while those on a full basic state pension will get £7.80 more annually.Strong wage growth has caused a headache for the Bank of England by stoking inflationary pressures, putting further interest rate cuts at risk after four reductions in the past year.

However, a deeper slowdown in the jobs market could show the economy is deteriorating, supporting faster rate cuts.Threadneedle Street kept interest rates on hold at 4% last month amid growing concern over inflation despite the slowdown in the jobs market and a weaker outlook for the economy.Alan Taylor, a member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, warned that Britain’s economy was at growing risk of suffering a “bumpy landing” as elevated interest rates and Donald Trump’s trade wars weigh on activity.“As I see it, in an economy with rising unemployment and weak demand, wage settlements will be pushed down, and wage-led domestic inflation will not rekindle an upward spiral [for inflation],” he told an event in Cambridge on Tuesday.
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‘The vocals were on another level’: how Counting Crows made Mr Jones

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‘A palette unlike anything in the west’: Ben Okri, Yinka Shonibare and more on how Nigerian art revived Britain’s cultural landscape

To mark a new exhibition at Tate Modern, leading British-Nigerian cultural figures trace the impact of their heritage on their work, and consider its growing influence on the world stageSome primal energy was unleashed among Nigerian artists in the years leading up to independence. The century-long reign of colonialism was nearing its end and the people of Nigeria, with its over 300 tribes, its ebullient energy, were poised for a new future in which they would determine the shape and context of their lives.And the people who most articulated that double position, that paradox of modernity and tradition, were artists in all their stripes. Artists across the country, in constant dialogue with one another, created works that evoked their traditions but in a contemporary context. Artists such as Yusuf Grillo in the north, Bruce Onobrakpeya from the midwest, Ben Enwonwu from the east and Twins Seven Seven from the west were remaking the dream of art in a rigorously Nigerian context

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Perfume Genius: ‘I really like body hair! I like a bush. I didn’t even notice Jimmy Fallon censored mine’

The singer on looking like Amelia Earhart, the time he set his mother’s house on fire and his beef with the Octopus Teacher guyEveryone was talking about your pubic hair after it was censored on The Tonight Show. Should we all be showing more or less bush?More! I really like body hair. I like a bush. I like the whole deal. I’m sure if I didn’t have a bush, they wouldn’t have censored it

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My cultural awakening: ‘Kate Bush helped me come out as a trans woman’

As a not-yet-out trans teen, The Sensual World – the singer’s rejection of masculine influence – felt like an invocation of everything I was feelingIt wasn’t safe for me to discover The Sensual World, the eponymous track on what Kate Bush described as her “most female album”. The song was intended to be a rejection of the masculine influence that had unwittingly shaped the artist’s previous work, and an ode to something taboo within the female experience. Based on Molly Bloom’s soliloquy in James Joyce’s Ulysses – a stream of consciousness in which the character reflects on her experiences of nature, sex and love – Bush wanted to celebrate the experience of life inside a woman’s body, and the ways it gives her spiritual and sexual pleasure. I knew that, for someone like me, who was already being bullied, to openly love a song like this could make me an even more obvious target to those who saw femininity as a sign of weakness. More daunting than that, it might force me to confront my own repressed desires

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From Tron: Ares to Riot Women: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead

Tron: AresOut now Perhaps the most exciting thing for many about this new Tron film is that it has a score from Nine Inch Nails. It also stars Jared Leto as the embodiment of a super-advanced AI program sent into the real world on a high-stakes mission. (Just try not to notice that Ares is an anagram of arse, because you won’t be able to unsee it.)I SwearOut nowRobert Aramayo gives a rousing turn as Tourette’s campaigner John Davidson, whose experience of the condition in the 1980s (before it was widely acknowledged to exist in the UK) led him to become one of the first people to try to raise awareness, leading to the presentation of an MBE during which he duly shouted “Fuck the queen”.Terence Davies retrospectiveCinemas nationwide, to 30 NovemberA major director, but not necessarily a household name, Terence Davies, who died two years ago, is now being honoured with a retrospective by the BFI in London, plus a UK-wide re-release of his acclaimed Edith Wharton adaptation The House of Mirth, starring Gillian Anderson

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The Guide #212: The Taylor Swift backlash has me asking: how much good music can one artist really produce?

Amid the flood of discourse around Taylor Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl, one recurring sentiment jumped out: that the album – which many critics have declared a misstep in Swift’s otherwise consistently solid discography – felt hurried, hasty, rushed. “The Life of a Showgirl Is 40 Minutes of Elevator Music Rushed Out to Break a Beatles Record”, read the particularly savage headline of a piece on Collider. In the Guardian music desk’s excellent round table on the album, just about every panellist expressed a wish that Swift would take a break from the constant churn of releasing records, in order to recapture a lost spark.And it has been quite the churn. Since 2019 Swift has on average released an album a year, and that’s not counting the Taylor’s Version re-records of her older albums

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UK economy at risk of ‘bumpy landing’; JP Morgan’s Dimon warns of ‘more cockroaches’ after collapse of First Brands and Tricolor – as it happened

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Instagram to bring in version of PG-13 system to protect children, says Meta

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MPs warned over ‘shameful’ lack of funding for GB athletes at Deaflympics

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RFL close to selling stake in expanded Super League to private equity

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