Time to wrap up… Unemployment in the UK unexpectedly fell in the three months to February, according to official figures – but the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East is expected to cause a rise in job cuts.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the rate of unemployment was 4.9% in February, the lowest level since last summer.This compares with 5.2% in the three months to January, a rate that economists had expected to also see in February.

Excluding bonuses, wage growth fell to 3.6% year on year in the three months to February, down from 3.8% in January and the lowest level since November 2020.After taking account of inflation, wages grew by just 0.2%.

Primark is to break free from its sister food company, which owns Twinings, Kingsmill and Patak’s, next year despite warning that the conflict in the Middle East is likely to hit consumer spending and drive up inflation.The fashion chain’s owner, Associated British Foods (ABF), confirmed the plan to split off Primark from the rest of the food group, first mooted last year.The fashion group operates 486 stores across 19 countries.The demerger is expected to create two new FTSE 100 companies, with Primark worth as much as £9bn and the food business £4bn, although the valuations would be dependent on an improved profits outlook, according to Charles Allen, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.Second-class post will be delivered every other weekday and scrapped on Saturdays from next month as part of a £500m plan to tackle late deliveries at struggling Royal Mail.

The courier has been piloting a new letter delivery pattern since July, which will be rolled out nationwide in May,The change comes follows a deal with the Communication Workers Union (CWU) and Unite last week that ended a lengthy dispute over the second-class post overhaul,The CWU will now ballot its members on the changes,There will be no changes to first-class post, which will still be delivered daily from Monday to Saturday, or to parcels, which remain unchanged, continuing at up to seven days a week,The US stock market has opened tentatively higher this afternoon – the blue chip S&P 500 index is up 0.

1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0,6%,The food industry is calling on the government to “intervene now” to prevent food inflation surging as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, before it is “too late” to support consumers and businesses,Industry body the Food and Drink Federation (FDF), which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, said the energy price shock caused by the effective closure of the key shipping channel the strait of Hormuz risks pushing food price inflation higher unless action is taken,The FDF forecast at the start of April that prices will rise by at least 9% by the end of the year, almost tripling a forecast of 3.

2% made before the conflict in the Middle East began.That estimate was based on the assumption that the strait would be reopened by this week.Given the uncertainty over further peace talks, and following comments by president Donald Trump on Tuesday that he did not want to extend the ceasefire with Iran, the FDF indicated that the projected inflation figure could rise even higher.Karen Betts, chief executive of the FDF, told reporters:double quotation markWe can see inflation coming down the pipe because energy is embedded in every part of the food system.There are things you can do to help the industry right across the board on energy, but you need to act quickly because if you don’t get that in as inflation starts to build, then it’s going to be too late.

It will have started to work its way through the system and ultimately into prices.”Betts added that the government lacked a sense of “urgency” to deal with the expected food price spike.double quotation markThere is opportunity for government to intervene now.Food price inflation will impact headline inflation, which will then impact interest rates..

.It seems to us that there is a moment now where we can look at how we can mitigate the situation we’re in and make sure we don’t have a very unpleasant peak.”Food prices are already 40% higher than they were five years ago, Betts said.She added that the challenges of the past few years, including the surge in energy costs and corresponding rise in food prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had left many food and drink manufacturers less able to absorb higher costs.Betts said ministers could decide to “mitigate energy costs.

..to take the heat out of food price inflation”.She said she understood the challenges of the government’s fiscal position, and the FDF had made suggestions on how to support food and drink manufacturers through “targeted intervention”, as well as pausing some of the new regulations facing manufacturers including new packaging and recycling rules and changes required as the UK prepares realign its food standards with those of the EU as part of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement.The mood has turned in the European stock market now, with the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 index down 0.

2%.The UK’s blue chip FTSE 100 index is down 0.4% – the engineer Rolls Royce is the worst performer across the group, with its shares down 5.5% today.Rachel Reeves has been updating MPs on the economic consequences of the war in Iran, telling them she won’t take “knee jerk action,” that would ultimately drive up costs for consumers.

double quotation markWe are continuing to plan for every eventuality, but we must deal with the economic costs that are already being felt,” the chancellor told the House of Commons,“I reject the demands for a knee jerk response to this crisis that would put household finances at risk through higher inflation and higher interest rates,Every choice that I make will be about keeping costs down for families and for businesses,”She’s referring to the impact of Liz Truss’s spending splurge in autumn 2022, which resulted in higher interest rates as markets took fright - the Treasury intends instead to take a more targeted approach to protecting households, so this is an argument she is especially keen to land,Reeves acknowledged that the UK economy is particularly exposed to volatile global energy costs, describing this as, “a problem that the previous government failed to address in 14 years”.

And she confirmed the package of reforms announced today by energy secretary Ed Miliband, who sat next to her in the Commons - including an increase in the Energy Generator Levy, charged on older renewables projects.Revolut is aiming for a $200bn valuation in a stock market listing, according to a report from the Financial Times.It is reported that the fintech firm, which received a full UK banking licence this year, has discussed internally and with some of its investors a target valuation between $150bn to $200bn.Its founder Nik Storonsky said earlier this week that the bank would IPO in 2028 at the earliest.It is understood that the bank has not established a formal valuation target.

Revolut declined to comment on the report.Elsewhere today: the UK government is pushing ahead with plans to de-couple electricity and gas prices.Electricity generators will face higher windfall taxes unless they sign up to long-term fixed-price contracts, in a move designed to protect bill payers from future spikes in the wholesale gas market.Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, said that while the government was right to focus on energy security, messaging on next steps for the electricity generators levy must be backed by clear timelines to prevent uncertainty.double quotation markElectrifying our economy is key to delivering both energy security and bringing down bills.

However, the reality is that UK businesses remain exposed to some of the highest energy prices in the developed world, just as they face rising costs elsewhere.If we are to drive competitiveness and growth, the government must continue on this trajectory by: removing ‘non energy’ policy costs from electricity bills, targeting industrial energy efficiency support and accelerating the delivery of renewable energy through upcoming auction rounds.A stable, affordable energy system is a prerequisite for a thriving economy enabling UK industry to invest, compete, and grow.”US stock futures are rising ahead of the open on Wall Street in a couple of hours.Futures for the S&P are up 0.

3%, with futures for the Dow pointing to a 0,6% rise,There is some AI optimism feeding that rise: last night JP Morgan raised its year end target for the S& 500, citing AI and tech-driven earnings,,Meanwhile Amazon said on Monday that it would invest up to $25bn in the AI company Anthropic, sending its shares up by about 3% in pre-market trading.

Some welcome news for motorists: unleaded has dropped to 157,57p per litre in the UK, down from 158,31p last week, according to figures from the RAC,Diesel is now at 190,13p, down from a peak of 191.

54p last week.But prices are still much higher than usual – and the BBC reported today that fuel thefts have surged by 62% compared with a year ago due to higher prices at the pump.The fuel theft recovery company Pay My Fuel reported that the average weekly rate of drive-offs per forecourt increased from 2.1 in March 2025 to 3.4 in the same month this year.

The business said the average value of fuel stolen per incident rose by 46% over the same period.Royal Mail has promised to invest £500m over the next five years to improve its UK delivery service.The service is now working towards meeting its new postal delivery targets by May next year, after agreeing a plan to roll out changes to scrap second-class post on Saturdays.It will phase in a new letter delivery model next month, which will see it deliver second-class post every other weekday.The company said the changes should see it improve first class next day delivery to around 85% within nine months of the reforms, then hit the 90% target set by the regulator Ofcom within a year.

Chief executive Alistair Cochrane said:double quotation markWe recognise our service hasn’t always been the standard our customers rightly expect and we’re determined to do better.The plan we’ve set out today shows how we’ll make a step change in performance across the UK, backed by £500 million of investment over the next five years.”The postal service was fined a record £21m by Ofcom last year for missing its annual delivery targets for first- and second-class mail, on top of a £10.5m fine in 2024 and a £5.6m fine in 2023.

Natalie Black, Ofcom’s director for infrastructure and connectivity, said:double quotation markAs well as fining Royal Mail £37 million for failing to deliver what customers expect and deserve, we’ve also been calling on the company to publicly set out a credible plan for change, backed by investment.Now that’s published, Royal Mail needs to get on and implement it.Their plan must deliver significant and continuous improvement, with performance getting back on track.”CWU general secretary Dave Ward said:double quotation markWe welcome any serious proposal that seeks to reverse customer service failings at Royal Mail, but what really matters is what happens on the ground to make that change happen.Postal workers remain committed to delivering for the communities they serve, but they need the tools to do this.

They need answers over whether the workforce will be properly resourced and retained, whether they will have a real say over how change is deployed, what manageable workloads look like, and how serious issues are fixed.Royal Mail’s current attitude of running the company with top-down, command and control methods, and prioritising finance over staffing and customer quality must end.We have reached a negotiators agreement that says these things will be delivered, and we are currently explaining this to our representatives and members before we hold a ballot.But Royal Mail’s track record of sticking to their promises is not great, which is why as part of this agreement we have asked the government and parliament to oversee affairs and continue holding the company to account.To give Royal Mail any chance at future success, we must also see a change in the remit of Ofcom, and an end to the exploitative labour models our competitors use to undercut Royal Mail and our posties.

We urgently await discussions with the government on all these issues,”Last April the Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský completed a drawn-out £3,6bn purchase of Royal Mail’s owner, International Distribution Services, after the takeover was approved by a UK government national security review,That same month the price of a first-class stamp rose, up 5p to £1,70, while the cost of the second-class service rose by 2p to 87p.

This year, the price of a first-class stamp increased by 10p, or 6%, to £1.80.The cost of the second-class service went up by 4p, or 5%, to 91p.Real estate group British Land has increased its earnings guidance for 2026 and 2027 as it reported “accelerating demand” from AI firms.Chief executive Simon Carter said:double quotation markIn campuses, we are seeing accelerating demand from a new wave of AI and innovation-led occupiers, driving strong rental growth in what remains a supply constrained market.

The company said it had recently signed Anthropic, one of the biggest AI companies in the world, for 158,000 sq ft at its One Triton Square office in London’s so-called “knowledge quarter” near Euston – the sixth deal it has completed with the business, it said.The FTSE 100 company now expects to deliver underlying earnings per share of 28.9p of the year to the end of March, ahead of previous guidance.Its shares are up by about 2% this morning.Turning back to the latest batch of UK labour market figures, which showed an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate – Pat McFadden, secretary of state for work and pensions, said:double quotation markThese figures show that there was an improvement in the labour market at the beginning of the year with unemployment falling below 5%, and 332,000 more people in work than a year ago