Hedge fund borrowing exposes emerging markets to greater Iran war risk, says IMF
Emerging economies are at greater risk of higher interest rates and currency shocks resulting from the Iran war because of increased reliance on market investors such as hedge funds, the International Monetary Fund has warned.The IMF’s analysis shows that a cumulative $4tn flowed into emerging markets last year from outside the formal banking sector – including from hedge funds and investment funds.In a blogpost, IMF economists argue that this can bring benefits, but also risks, as these funds are more likely than traditional bank financing to be withdrawn suddenly in times of financial stress.“Market-based finance can help firms integrate into global value chains, a key driver of exports, by easing access to funding for trade, working capital, and other needs that increase their productive capacity,” it says.But it warns that these investments “tend to be more volatile than bank flows and are increasingly sensitive to global risk conditions”.
During global financial shocks, the IMF says, “abrupt retrenchments can intensify external financing pressures, raise borrowing costs, and trigger sharp currency depreciations, leading to financial strains that weigh on economic growth.”Some countries are already experiencing these challenges, it warns: “These risks have come to the fore in the context of the war in the Middle East, as several emerging markets are experiencing a reversal of capital flows from nonresident nonbank investors.”Analysing the behaviour of different categories of investor when market volatility rises, it found hedge funds and mutual funds have the highest propensity to withdraw, with pension funds and insurers tending to be more circumspect.The IMF also highlights growing flows of stablecoins – cryptocurrencies pegged to a currency, usually the dollar – into emerging economies, warning that these tend to be vulnerable to wider fluctuations in cryptocurrency markets.Emerging economies have not been untouched by the recent boom in private credit – direct lending to companies from investors such as private equity firms – either.
The IMF estimates that this opaque sector’s investments in emerging markets have increased fivefold over the past decade to perhaps $50-100bn, and warns regulators to be wary.“While private credit can broaden access to capital, gaps in transparency and data availability may make it hard to quickly identify vulnerabilities or potential risks to financial stability,” it warns.The IMF’s analysis, drawn from a chapter of its upcoming Global Financial Stability Report, was published as the world’s finance ministers and central bankers prepare to gather for the lender’s spring meetings in Washington next week.The economic impact of the war is likely to be at the top of the agenda, with many policymakers already wrestling with soaring fuel prices and the prospect of slower growth.The IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned on Monday that as a result of the conflict, “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” adding, “even if the war is to stop today, there would be a lingering negative impact to the rest of the world.
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JP Morgan reaches agreement with City airport for Canary Wharf’s tallest tower
JP Morgan Chase has reached agreement with London City airport to build one of Europe’s tallest office towers in the east of the capital.The £3bn tower is poised to be the tallest in the Canary Wharf financial district after JP Morgan, one of Wall Street’s biggest banks, secured approval from the airport.JP Morgan revealed plans last November to build the Canary Wharf tower, which will serve as its new UK headquarters. The lender has since been in talks with airport officials over building height restrictions, given Canary Wharf’s location four miles west of City airport.Any new developments and planning applications within 10km (6 miles) of the airport are considered to be within its “area of interest”, meaning its safeguarding officials need to be consulted to ensure new buildings in Docklands do not interfere with aircraft movements
Iceland chain offers job to man sacked by Waitrose after confronting shoplifter
Keir Starmer’s cost of living tsar, who is the chair of Iceland, has offered a job to a worker who was sacked from Waitrose after trying to stop a shoplifter.Waitrose faced public outcry over its treatment of Walker Smith, who was fired two days after he stopped the shoplifter taking items from the Easter egg display, including Lindt chocolate bunnies.Richard Walker responded by offering Smith a job at one of his stores. In a LinkedIn post, he wrote: “You’re welcome to a job with us. We even share the same name …”An Iceland spokesperson confirmed to the Guardian that the supermarket chain had been in touch with Smith and offered him a job
Universal Music, home to Taylor Swift and Drake, receives €55bn takeover offer
Billionaire Bill Ackman’s hedge fund has offered to buy Universal Music Group (UMG) in a deal that values the world’s biggest music company at around €55bn (£48bn).Pershing Square, the New-York based hedge fund, has made a bid for the business, which is home to artists including Taylor Swift and Elton John, with a cash and stock deal that would move its stock market listing from Amsterdam to New York.Ackman said in a statement that while the company, which is led by the British-born Sir Lucian Grainge, had done “an excellent job nurturing and continuing to build a world-class artist roster and generating strong business performance”, its share price had lagged owing to issues “unrelated to the performance of its music business”.Shares in UMG, which have been listed in Amsterdam since 2021, had lost more than a quarter of their value in the past year alone. Pershing’s offer triggered a sharp rise, with the price up by 13% on the previous trading day when the Amsterdam Euronext exchange closed on Tuesday
UK City firms report fastest turnaround in fortunes in 30 years
Britain’s financial services companies have reported a strong recovery in activity at the start of the year, in a surprise boost to the government after a gloomy end to 2025.Banks, insurers and investment managers said their businesses were growing, with a positive balance of nearly two-thirds noting an expansion, according to a long-running survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), a lobby group. That contrasted with the negative balance of 38% in December, despite the start of the US-Israel war on Iran.It was the fastest turnaround in the sector’s fortunes in 30 years, since December 1996, the group said.Financial services companies such as banks, insurers and investors have been performing well in recent quarters
UK manufacturers ‘will pay £940m a year more in business rates due to Reeves changes’
British manufacturers have said they will have to pay an extra £940m a year in business rates because of changes by Rachel Reeves that come into effect this month.Manufacturers face a disproportionate business rates bill because they often have large factory floors, according to analysis by MakeUK, an industry lobby group. It said that factories accounted for a fifth of England and Wales’s property by rateable value, despite manufacturers only accounting for a 10th of economic output.The chancellor increased business rates at the budget in November. That included companies paying an additional surcharge on buildings of a rateable value of more than £500,000
‘Italy has the best benefits’: Milan takes on Dubai as home for the super-rich
Just over a month ago, Dubai was the obvious destination for wealthy Britons in search of a new home. Few cities allow you to earn vast sums tax-free and spend them across any number of luxury hotels, restaurants and shops.But as the United Arab Emirates comes under Iranian fire, Dubai’s reputation – in part created by emigrant influencers – as a haven for the global elite is eroding. Super-rich UK nationals are now looking for a route back to Europe; and Milan, the financial centre of Italy, is climbing to the top of the list.“Italy has the best benefits: a flat tax and good quality of life,” says Armand Arton, a consultant who helps multimillionaire and billionaire families to relocate through investment citizenship schemes
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