AFL finals: where the Adelaide v Hawthorn semi-final will be won and lost | Martin Pegan
Adelaide’s dream return to AFL finals is now at risk of turning into a nightmare.The days when sides could lose a qualifying final, as the Crows did against Collingwood, then not have to do much more than show up for a semi-final to get their campaign back on track are long gone.Hawthorn can ride a wave of momentum into the second week of finals with reason to believe they can survive a second do-or-die clash.In the nine seasons since the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016, eight elimination final winners have rolled on to win their semi-final.In the previous 16 seasons under the current top-eight system, only five teams started the finals with two consecutive finals victories – while just as few blew their double chance.
As this year’s minor premiers, the Crows are under even more pressure as they seek to avoid the dreaded straight-sets finals exit,It has been 42 years since a side finished top of the ladder and was then bundled out of finals with back-to-back defeats,The Crows might be happy for more recent history to repeat, but the Hawks are out to rewrite their own familiar story after losing to the Power at the semi-final stage and at the Adelaide Oval last year,Adelaide’s worst fears were realised against Collingwood as their wobbles over the last month of the home and away season were carried into the club’s first AFL final since 2017,The Crows were ultimately unable to handle the increased heat of a final even with a hostile crowd behind them, as the battle-hardened Magpies ramped up their intensity and broke the game open with seven consecutive goals.
There can be no excuses for not knowing what to expect this week against another high-pressure team in Hawthorn.During finals sign up for our free weekly AFL newsletterThe Crows found it difficult to transition from defence to attack in the qualifying final but showed a few weeks ago that they can open up the Hawks with their own kicking game.Better decision-making when entering the forward 50 will be a focus, after the Pies’ backs, led by Darcy Moore, controlled the airways and with the Hawks’ intercept-marking defenders now looming large.The Crows’ imposing record at Adelaide Oval took a hit last week, but they will still appreciate being back on their home deck where they have won 12 of 14 games this year.Hawthorn have to face up to three decades of history where no eighth-placed finalist has beaten the minor premiers.
But it should be remembered that they hardly snuck into the top eight after effectively playing off for a double chance in the last round.The Hawks have won nine of their past 12 matches including a narrow victory over the Crows early in that stretch, though their heaviest defeat in that time – and even that was by only 14 points – came later against their eventual semi-final opponents.The Hawks turned their back on their four tall forwards set-up against the Giants but still had more than enough variety and avenues to goal.They also showed they can score in different ways, by beating the Giants at their own game and converting from defensive-half chains, then launching a goal-blitz from centre clearances.The Hawks could be on the ropes if the Crows have as many as 72 inside 50s, as the Giants did without making them pay, though their defence led by captain James Sicily as well as prized recruits Josh Battle and Tom Barrass can be trusted to limit the damage.
Sign up to From the Pocket: AFL WeeklyJonathan Horn brings expert analysis on the week's biggest AFL storiesafter newsletter promotionAdelaide: Jordan Dawson – the Crows skipper earned a second All-Australian blazer this year and was widely considered unlucky not to be recognised as captain of the team.But Dawson unusually lowered his colours in their first final for eight years as he was contained by Collingwood’s Ned Long when the game was on the line.The 28-year-old is unlikely to have two quiet matches in a row and he remains a barometer for the Crows whether they are up and running or searching for someone to spark their midfield.Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe – the Hawks midfielder is one of those footballers who is built for finals and he more than lived up to that billing against the Giants.The 24-year-old took command of the onball battle and was a key to the Hawks opening up an early lead, finishing with 32 disposals and 12 clearances in a best afield display in his 100th game.
The Hawks’ midfield might not run as deep as some at the remaining six clubs but with Newcombe leading the charge alongside James Worpel they have enough muscle to match the Crows.Adelaide will learn the lessons from their return to finals and edge Hawthorn by a narrow margin to keep their dream alive.
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