Get ready for an Open thriller with fiendish unpredictability of Portrush

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Stunning course, benign forecast and giddy galleries make it all but futile to predict a winner of 153rd stagingThe consensus among golf’s chattering classes in Portrush is that it may be some time until the Open returns.Two stagings inside a decade was always the plan as the R&A determined Northern Ireland could host an event of this stature.There will be a third, it just seems unlikely to land imminently.Muirfield is long overdue an Open return, so too is Royal Lytham & St Annes.When Dublin’s Portmarnock is added to the upcoming mix, Royal Portrush will be required to wait in line.

There will be a determination on the Causeway Coast to make the most of the opportunity in this, the 153rd Open staging,The Dunluce Links is a world-class venue, one which will reward only the finest ball strikers as the jousting for the Claret Jug concludes on Sunday evening,The Masters should always be the easiest major to call, such is the small field combined with a necessity for Augusta National specialism,The US Open revels in being attritional, occasionally – as at Oakmont last month – to the point of silliness,The US PGA Championship takes place on such a variety of courses that it has no distinct identity.

At the Open, there is a routine element of unpredictability that makes it so fiendishly difficult to envision before a ball is whacked in anger,This can be as general as in the draw – where one half gains a meaningful weather advantage over the other – or as niche as a bounce,The randomness of links golf means half a yard can equal a menacing bunker lie, from which a round can unravel,Portrush, a site offering such natural and stunning beauty, grabs the attention from the outset,The opening tee shot is the trickiest on the Open rota.

Out-of-bounds poles line up right and left.With crosswinds almost a constant and the stakes so high, this is the antithesis of a soft start.Any player trying to attack the front left of the green and landing short will watch their ball trickle back into a horrible, perfectly positioned sand trap.Six years ago, Rory McIlroy’s eight on day one turned heads.The reality is that is not an altogether difficult thing to do.

There is opportunity thereafter.The 2nd is a generous par five.The severe 4th is followed by a friendly 5th.The 8th, 10th and 12th are unlikely to faze the world’s best.As Shane Lowry demonstrated when placing daylight between himself and the field on Saturday in 2019, the closing stretch can be whacked into submission.

Open participants will be cheered by the fact that, while Thursday looks wet, wind forecasts are not particularly high over all four tournament days.This has scope to be a low-scoring Open.Portrush is no Carnoustie.With this comes an element of thrill.In the buildup McIlroy has been cheered from tee to green by giddy audiences.

His following here is worthy of comparison with what surrounded Tiger Woods in his pomp.If McIlroy finds himself in the mix come Sunday, the spectacle will be extraordinary.His afternoon tee time on Thursday appears literally in the eye of a storm.While logic suggests this should be problem, could the local hero take to a benign course after an enforced delay? The Open is so much about the unknown.The world No 1 can, by comparison with McIlroy, go about his business in relative anonymity.

Scottie Scheffler turned heads on Tuesday by openly questioning the meaning of golf.This was deep stuff for a 29‑year‑old; what on earth will his mindset be at 40? It was difficult to square this contemplative Scheffler with the man gesticulating wildly towards his coach at the US Open or reduced to tears after heavy defeat in the last Ryder Cup.In short, it was hard to take seriously.Jon Rahm has won twice on links courses in Ireland, including at nearby Portstewart.Tyrrell Hatton’s strong US Open showing renders the Englishman worthy of respect.

Russell Henley feels the underdog with most to offer.Yet by the very nature of this major, Open predictions can be an utterly futile business.The Open has never held more appeal.About 1.2 million applications flooded in for 280,000 available tickets.

The scale of this tournament has grown exponentially over the past decade.For all golf participation has leapt in the same period, the R&A’s true success has been in making the Open land so strongly in the minds of general sports fans.The demographic of Open attenders is visibly younger than ever before.Sign up to The RecapThe best of our sports journalism from the past seven days and a heads-up on the weekend’s actionafter newsletter promotionStriking, too, is the absence of conversation about golf’s ongoing schism.The PGA and LIV tours are no closer to forming an alliance which would allow the best players on the planet to compete more regularly than four times a year in majors.

It is a curious dynamic, one where LIV rumbles on somewhere in the background without anyone beyond dedicated followers of golf paying much attention.McIlroy’s appearances in India and Australia later in 2025 will reinforce his desire for a global game.So much opportunity is being missed.Pádraig Harrington will have the honour of striking this Open’s first tee shot.The Dubliner’s attitude is such that he will care far less about that than competing at the business end.

One of his playing partners, Tom McKibbin, is quietly fancied by many.The same prize as 2024, $3.1m (£2.3m), will be bestowed on the champion.Fortune, whether favouring the brave or otherwise, will inevitably play a part.

Portrush is to be relished before a decent hiatus,
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