The Breakdown | Storming ahead means increasingly little in era of rugby’s comeback kings
They won’t always say so publicly but every journalist is familiar with the concept of a “reverse ferret”,In the heyday of printed newspapers a piece might be filed in good faith only for new information to force a frantic, face-saving rejig for later editions,Plenty of coruscating “why oh why” match reports, confidently hammered out at half-time, have been known to morph into gushing symphonies of praise thanks to an improbable late twist,It may just be that one or two backpedalling ferrets were spotted in the west of Scotland on Saturday night,To be fair, those reporters in attendance had every excuse.
When the Glasgow Warriors trotted in at half-time they were 21-0 down to the most illustrious club in Europe, their chances of victory seemingly on a par with spotting Margot Robbie water-skiing down the wintry River Clyde,To make matters worse it was an 8pm kick-off, allowing scant time for leisurely contemplation anyway,Here’s to a peaceful, restorative Christmas, then, for the head-clutching hacks who suddenly had to rip it all up and start again once it became apparent they were witnessing one of the great comebacks of this or any other Champions Cup season,Statistically, the Warriors’ 28-21 victory was “only” the fourth biggest turnaround in the tournament’s 30-year history,The record still stands at 24 points, the margin overhauled by another Scottish team, Edinburgh, against Racing 92 in 2011 when the former were 44-20 down after 63 minutes and somehow still managed to win 48-47.
In the Prem, Quins’ comeback from 28-0 down at Bristol in 2021 also continues to resonate.Saturday’s seesawing contest at Scotstoun, though, was right up there.While it helped that Glasgow had the wind at their backs in the second half, Toulouse still had a squad laden with seasoned internationals and youthful talent.Nine times out of 10, they would have finished the job they had started.So, chapeau to the Warriors for their brilliant “boilover”, with Gregor Brown, Jack Dempsey, Adam Hastings and the centres Stafford McDowell and Sione Tuipulotu all influential.
By the end, it would have felt like an injustice had Toulouse stolen a draw.According to the reliably excellent statistician Stuart Farmer, the game set a record for the number of points – 49 – scored at one end in the tournament, just beating the previous mark of 47 established by Oyonnax and Ulster in 2016.Could it be, though, that wider factors are at play beyond the specific circumstances of Toulouse’s implosion? The game’s dynamics have shifted significantly and old truisms no longer apply.Once, it was assumed that going two scores ahead was a winning second-half cushion.Now, as Glasgow have just underlined, storming ahead by three converted tries guarantees nothing.
Everyone, in theory, is a potential comeback king.Remember when the All Blacks went 17-0 up at Murrayfield last month and almost lost? Or when England were held to a 38-38 draw in the 2019 Calcutta Cup from 31-0 up? Something about the way professional rugby is now engineered seems to be making front-runners more vulnerable, powerless to stem the onrushing tide.Give away an innocuous penalty 60 metres from your own line, for example, and the chain of events has become almost preordained.The opposition will fancy kicking for the corner, collecting an unopposed lineout and mauling their way over for seven points.Then you are required to kick off again.
Maybe your chaser clatters someone fractionally late.Back to the corner sails the ball and – boom – that is 14 points conceded inside three minutes.A strong Glaswegian wind, in other words, is not an essential prerequisite.And we haven’t even yet mentioned the increasing impact of the bench on the modern game.The net effect is that sides who “stop playing” can be reeled in like farmed salmon, assisted by a series of newish laws that can transform a game’s momentum quicker than you can say Usain Bolt.
None of this will – or should – bother the Warriors much.They are not the first and will not be the last to join “Team Lazarus”.At the start of this English Prem season, remember, Northampton drew 33-33 with Exeter Chiefs having been 33-7 ahead and were almost overhauled from 31-7 up against Gloucester the following week.“We obviously suffered in those first two games,” says Phil Dowson, Saints’ director of rugby.“Eddie Jones talked about the mental element and about sides being maybe more mentally weak.
Whether it’s the refereeing, whether it’s the ability to go from play to play … I’m not sure.”Dowson also points out that, to some degree, recency bias may be involved.He was on the losing team when Leinster famously overcame a 16-point half-time deficit to beat Northampton in the 2011 Heineken Cup final.On balance, he still regards the trend as mostly positive.“Because there are higher-scoring games you can actually get back into the game more.
And I think that’s good for the game as well,The days of winning 10-6 and 9-3 … you don’t see many of them any more, delightful as they were,”Maybe so,But in their place is a game where the laws, scoring system, disciplinary framework and increasingly creative use of replacements are pulling the game in so many different directions that certain core principles are wobbling,The pursuit of constant “jeopardy” is less ideal if, in practice, that just means endless five-metre lineouts and more predictable head-down bashing while the backs stand idle.
Then again, Toulouse failed to nail plenty of chances when they were in front.Ultimately, they can only blame themselves for squandering a 21-point lead.And maybe it will make them more resilient the next time the pressure comes on in a big game.All of which suggests just one thing.Expect more “reverse ferrets” between now and the end of the season.
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