Oil on track for record monthly surge as Iran war disrupts markets
The Brent crude oil price is on track for its biggest monthly gain on record in March after the Iran war caused mayhem in the markets.Brent crude, the international benchmark, has climbed by 51% since the start of March, LSEG data shows, beating the previous monthly record of 46% in September 1990 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, leading to the first Gulf war.Brent closed at $112.57 a barrel on Friday, up from $72.48 a barrel on 27 February, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began.
Brent traded as high as $119,50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran all but closed the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas would normally pass,US crude prices also rose during March; West Texas Intermediate has gained 48%, on track for its strongest month since May 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic was disrupting the world economy,Oil prices climbed through the month despite the coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on 11 March,Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply by the Middle East conflict.
Donald Trump appeared to lose his ability to talk down the oil price as the war continued.Earlier in the month, the president’s claims of progress in negotiations pushed down crude prices, but by late March his declaration of a 10-day extension for Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz was followed by a rising oil price and falling stock markets.Oil was the best-performing asset during a volatile month for markets, in which shares, government bond prices and precious metals all fell.Gold failed to live up to its reputation as a safe haven against inflation.The spot price of gold has fallen by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008, and the fifth-biggest monthly fall in the past 50 years.
Some investors may have been forced to sell gold to cover losses, or margin calls, on other positions in the market.Gold was also under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week.It cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes, to fund efforts to stabilise the Turkish lira.Losses on Wall Street during March pulled the Dow Jones industrial average into a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high.Stocks fell despite Trump’s latest extension on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.
“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a analyst at City Index.Britain’s stock market had a poor month too, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.Almost all of its gains in January and February have been wiped out, with the FTSE 100 ending last week back below 10,000 points.UK government bonds weakened through March too, as traders ripped up forecasts for the Bank of England to cut interest rates this year.As bond prices fell, the yield (or interest rate) on 10-year UK bonds rose by 17% to nearly 5%, which would be the biggest monthly percentage rise in borrowing costs since September 2022 when Liz Truss’s mini-budget sparked a bond sell-off.
Other European government bonds were also hit; Italian two-year debt was heading for its worst month since May 2018.Modupe Adegbembo, an economist at Jefferies, said European governments were operating from a much weaker fiscal starting point than in 2022, the last energy price shock, meaning they had less scope for large‑scale fiscal intervention.“As a result, more of the adjustment is likely to fall on demand,” which is negative for the growth outlook, Adegbembo added.
Sony to hike PS5 prices by $100 as AI and Iran war push up memory chip costs
Sony is raising global prices of its PlayStation 5 consoles, including a $100 increase in the US, marking its second hike in less than a year as the entertainment giant grapples with rising costs of key components such as memory chips.The tech industry’s race to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has pushed memory makers to favor higher-margin datacenter chips, tightening supply for consumer devices like the ones Sony sells.The updated US prices, effective 2 April, will put the standard PS5 at $649.99, up from $549.99
Wikipedia bans AI-generated content in its online encyclopedia
Wikipedia has banned the use of artificial intelligence in the generation or rewriting of content for its voluminous online encyclopedia.In a recent policy change, Wikipedia said that the use of large language models (or LLMs) “often violates” its core principles and will not be allowed. The English language version of Wikipedia has more than 7.1m articles.The use of AI has been a contentious issue among Wikipedia’s community of volunteer editors but a vote among the site’s editors supported the ban, according to 404 Media
Number of AI chatbots ignoring human instructions increasing, study says
AI models that lie and cheat appear to be growing in number with reports of deceptive scheming surging in the last six months, a study into the technology has found.AI chatbots and agents disregarded direct instructions, evaded safeguards and deceived humans and other AI, according to research funded by the UK government-funded AI Security Institute (AISI). The study, shared with the Guardian, identified nearly 700 real-world cases of AI scheming and charted a five-fold rise in misbehaviour between October and March, with some AI models destroying emails and other files without permission.The snapshot of scheming by AI agents “in the wild”, as opposed to in laboratory conditions, has sparked fresh calls for international monitoring of the increasingly capable models and come as Silicon Valley companies aggressively promote the technology as a economically transformative. Last week the UK chancellor also launched a drive to get millions more Britons using AI
‘Accountability has arrived’: dual US court losses show shifting tide against Meta and co
In the span of just two days, the most powerful social media company in the world faced a more severe public reckoning than it has in years.Jurors in California and New Mexico gave back-to-back verdicts this week that for the first time ever found Meta liable for products that inflict harm on young people. For years, lawmakers, parents and advocates have raised red flags over how social media can hurt children, but now the tech firms are being held to account via court rulings that could set long-lasting precedents.A jury in New Mexico ordered Meta to pay $375m in damages on Tuesday over claims that its products led to child sexual exploitation, among other harms. The following day, a jury in California ordered Meta and YouTube to pay $6m over claims that both companies deliberately designed addictive products to hook young users
New York City hospitals drop Palantir as controversial AI firm expands in UK
New York City’s public hospital system announced that it would not be renewing its contract with Palantir as controversy mounts in the UK over the data analytics and AI firm’s government contract.The president of the US’s largest municipal public healthcare system, Dr Mitchell Katz, testified last week before the New York city council that the agreement with Palantir would expire in October.He said at the hearing that the contract, which focused on recovering money for insurance claims, was always meant to be short-term, and that there was an “absolute firewall” preventing Palantir from sharing information with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He said that the agency had “not had any incidents”.The contract and related payment documents shared with the Guardian by the American Friends Service Committee and first reported by the Intercept, show that NYC Health + Hospitals has paid Palantir nearly $4m since November 2023
Human rights groups cheer ‘watershed’ verdict in social media addiction trial
The verdict in a landmark social media trial that Meta and YouTube deliberately designed addictive products has sparked calls for reform across borders. International human rights and tech freedom groups issued statements after the decision, praising jurors for holding social media companies accountable for harms to children and urging tech giants to change their design features to ensure children are safe.Amnesty International said in a statement on Thursday that “this court decision is clear: these platforms are unsafe by design and meaningful change is urgently needed”.The day prior, a Los Angeles jury found both Meta and YouTube liable for intentionally creating platforms that hooked a young user and led to her being harmed. The six-week trial was one of more than 20 “bellwether” trials that are expected to go to court in the next few years
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