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Ipsos poll shows just how deep a hole the Conservatives are in

The findings from today’s Ipsos MRP poll show in no uncertain terms just how much trouble the Conservatives are in. Our model has the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453. To compare, in 1997 Tony Blair’s Labour party won 418 and John Major’s Conservatives 178. On these results, the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history.There is often a lot of mystery surrounding multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) in terms of what it is and how it works

June182024
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Tory candidate accused of dog-whistle tactics against rival with Indian name

A Conservative candidate has been criticised for sending letters to British-Pakistani voters allegedly insinuating they should vote for him instead of his Labour rival because of her Indian surname.Marco Longhi, the Tory candidate fighting for re-election in Dudley North against Sonia Kumar, has been accused of using dog-whistle politics and attempting to “alienate British Hindus”.In a letter to “voters of the British Pakistani/Kashmiri community in Dudley”, Longhi asked if the Labour candidate would speak for Kashmir in parliament. Kumar’s name was in bold, capitalised and underlined.Rishi Sunak has been called to withdraw his support for Longhi and condemn the letter

June182024
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Campaign catchup: Tories tanking, Starmer soccering, vetters not vetting

Good afternoon. If you have noticed a mood of inertia descend on the election campaign, you are probably onto something.Now that all of the UK-wide parties have launched their manifestos, with the SNP to follow tomorrow, all of the set pieces with the potential to consequentially shift the course of the national race are out of the way. It is too early to call the result, but it is not too early to say that barring something major and unforeseen happening, Labour are very likely to win. And if I’m repeating myself, that’s because nothing much seems to be changing

June182024
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Sarwar effectively starts Scottish Labour’s Holyrood campaign with tax pledge

Anas Sarwar has effectively fired the starting gun on the 2026 Holyrood election campaign as he pledged not to raise income tax if he became first minister.Sarwar told an audience of candidates and activists at the launch of Scottish Labour’s Westminster manifesto in Edinburgh, “we know change for Scotland is a two stage process” and that voters wanted to “turn the page … on 14 years of chaos under the Tories, and 17 years of failure under the SNP”.Asked if he could specifically rule out any increase in any Scottish income tax band or rate – which are devolved to Holyrood – under a Labour government at Holyrood, Sarwar said: “Yes. Next question.”Labour and the Scottish Conservatives have attacked the SNP government at Holyrood over the fact that people being paid more than £29,000 pay more in tax in Scotland

June182024
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Clearing the airwaves: Starmer gives woolly performance on LBC phone-in | Marina Hyde

Over in Clacton, Nigel Farage’s campaign is actually selling tickets to see him on Tuesday night, at an event for voters billed as “Meet Nigel Farage”. At £3.41 a ticket (some still available at the time of writing), this clearly represents an exciting entertainment opportunity for those unable to afford the £71 that the Reform leader charges on Cameo, where he has continued filming personalised videos for fans and ironists throughout the general election campaign. Nigel seems to have spent a good chunk of Father’s Day filming lucrative Happy Father’s Day videos for other fathers, which – how to put this delicately? – is surely what it’s all about.As a performing artiste, Keir Starmer’s market value is probably somewhat below the £3

June182024
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How the Lib Dems might double their seats despite fewer votes – visualised

The Liberal Democrats could increase their total seats in the new parliament owing to a more efficient vote distribution across the UK, say experts, despite the party polling a lower national vote share than in 2019.The Lib Dems are polling at an average of 10-11%, slightly lower than the 11.6% they won in 2019, which led to 11 seats in parliament.Despite this, a combination of decline in support for the Conservatives, more openness to tactical voting and a more efficient Lib Dem vote means Ed Davey may be able to double or even triple the party’s current seat total.This is largely expected to come from gains from the Conservatives in southern England – via those who previously backed the Lib Dems and those who have voted for the Tories for decades

June182024