UK unemployment shows surprise fall to 4.9% as pay growth drops to lowest in five years
Unemployment in the UK unexpectedly fell in the three months to February, according to official figures – but the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East is expected to cause a rise in job cuts,The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the rate of unemployment was 4,9% in the three months to February, the lowest level since last summer,This compares with 5,2% in the three months to January, a rate that economists had expected to also see in February.
Excluding bonuses, wage growth fell to 3.6% year on year in the three months to February, down from 3.8% in January and the lowest level since November 2020.The fall was slightly less than a drop to 3.5% that City economists had expected.
Including bonuses, wages increased by 3.8%, slowing from a rise of 4.1% in the previous quarter.Yael Selfin, the chief economist at KPMG, said the fall in unemployment was “consistent with survey evidence suggesting hiring activity was recovering before the conflict in the Middle East”.However, she added: “Unemployment is likely to trend higher in the coming months as firms scale back on hiring in response to rising costs and weaker demand.
”The Iran war began on 28 February, meaning the jobs data does not reflect how employers have responded to rising energy costs.However, more up-to-date tax figures released by the ONS showed the number of employees on payrolls fell by 11,000 in March to 30.3 million.Economists had expected a fall of 5,000.A previous estimate of a rise of 20,000 in February by the ONS was also revised down, to a fall of 6,000.
The number of job vacancies declined from 721,000 in the three months to February to 711,000 in March.Ashley Webb, the senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figures provided “the first signs that the rise in energy prices due to the Iran war is weighing on businesses’ hiring plans and that is feeding through into a further softening in pay growth”.Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, said: “These figures show that there was an improvement in the labour market at the beginning of the year with unemployment falling below 5%, and 332,000 more people in work than a year ago.“But we cannot escape the effects of the war in the Middle East which are likely to feed through to prices and employment in the coming months.We will do everything we can to support the country through this period.
”There was also a rise in economic inactivity, which counts people who are not actively looking for work or available to start a job, to 21%, from 20.7% in the previous quarter.The ONS said this was largely driven by fewer students looking for work alongside their studies.Private sector pay growth slowed from 3.3% to 3.
2%, which the Bank of England has previously said would be consistent with its target of getting inflation to 2%,The rate of inflation in March will be released by the ONS on Wednesday,Policymakers at the Bank will examine Tuesday’s employment market data and the inflation figures before making their next interest rate decision on 30 April,Economists expect it to keep the base rate on hold at 3,75%.
Webb said: “The fall in the unemployment rate suggests that the labour market was starting to stabilise before the Iran war, but the more timely figures imply that won’t last.If that’s the case, interest rate hikes are less likely than the markets expect.”The EY Item Club has forecast that unemployment will hit 5.8% by the middle of 2027, with almost 250,000 more people losing their jobs because of the crisis in the Middle East, pushing the number of jobseekers to more than 2.1 million.
Young people are expected to bear the brunt of any rise in job cuts,The unemployment rate for 18- to 24-year-olds dipped slightly in the three months to February to 14,3%, from 14,5% in January, but still remains at the highest level since 2015,
Barking dogs and a real estate agent: how a farcical AFL tribunal could prompt change | Jo Khan
In words no one could have predicted using two weeks ago, in the end it was a real estate agent who ostensibly brought down the AFL’s case against Zak Butters. The Port Adelaide player was cleared of umpire abuse on Monday night, after the AFL appeals board overturned the tribunal’s verdict based on an “error of law” through a “miscarriage of justice”. It brought to a close a farcical chapter that started with missing evidence and ended with barking dogs. And between those unusual bookends, Butters’ case took several other unexpectedly comical turns.Umpire abuse is a serious issue – one that permeates every level of sport from grassroots to the elite – and cracking down on it at the top level sends an important message
‘I hope it doesn’t get him down’: Usain Bolt tells Gout Gout to get ready to lose
Like running fast, growing pains are something sprint lord Usain Bolt knows something about. So when he tells teenage phenomenon Gout Gout that his first steps into the world of senior athletics will not be easy, the Australian ought to take heed.“I know it’s going to be an eye-opener,” Bolt told CNN of Gout’s first year as an adult, and an impending succession of showdowns against the world’s best sprinters. “And I hope it doesn’t get him down, but motivate him to work even harder.”Bolt showed huge promise as a teenager, winning the world juniors as a 15-year-old, but it was not until he overcame injury struggles and off-track distractions that he was able to become a world beater, when he won gold in Beijing as a 21-year-old
Fitness influencer drowns during swimming portion of Ironman Texas
A Brazilian fitness influencer has died after getting into difficulty during the swimming portion of an ironman event in Texas.Mara Flavia Souza Araujo was reported as a “lost swimmer” around 7.30am at the Ironman Texas in Lake Woodlands near Houston on Saturday. According to KPRC 2 News, safety crews could not immediately locate Araujo. The 38-year-old’s body was discovered around 90 minutes later in 10ft of water by divers
FIA confirms F1 rule changes in reaction to driver unhappiness and safety fears
The FIA has confirmed rule changes for the current Formula One season as the sport reacts to driver dissatisfaction and safety concerns with the new regulations. The adapted rules address the energy management issues that have proved controversial across the opening three meetings this year.Technical and sporting considerations had been discussed twice since the last round in Japan and on Monday senior representatives, including the FIA, team principals and their chief executives, the power unit manufacturers and F1’s chief executive, Stefano Domenicali, formally agreed the changes. They remain subject to ratification by the world motorsport council, a formality expected to be concluded before the next round in Miami on 3 May.There has been disquiet among many drivers at the role energy management now plays in the sport with an almost 50-50 split between power from the combustion engine and electrical energy
County cricket: Abell defies Hampshire’s fiery Baker to keep Somerset on high – as it happened
A micro-round of Championship games finished with three knuckle gnawers and one that petered quietly into a bad-light induced draw.At Southampton, Tom Abell guided Somerset to their second win of the season, leaving them top of Division One and flames ablaze in every West Country heart. His calm 101 not out, his second century of the season, defied even an eye-catching bowling performance from Hampshire’s Sonny Baker (five for 62). Run-up almost back to the rope, Baker pistoled in and, with a last-chance new ball, caterwauled Lewis Gregory’s middle stump and had Alfie Ogborne, a former housemate, tickling behind. But Abell, with stoic support from Jack Leach, saw Somerset home by two wickets
Why time is not on big-spending Joorabchian’s side in make-or-break season
There was an unexpected, jarring moment in the winner’s enclosure at Newmarket last week as Kevin Philippart de Foy, the principal trainer for the football super-agent Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing operation, prepared to discuss his win with Sovereign Spell in the opening race on Craven Stakes day.The familiar “huddle” of reporters was ready to hear what might come next for the three-year-old, but first, the trainer had a question of his own: was anyone there to report for the Racing Post? Amo Racing and the British turf’s trade paper, it seems, are not currently on speaking terms, for reasons best known to themselves.Welcome back to the latest run of the compelling and highly unpredictable docudrama in which Joorabchian attempts to buy his way to racing’s top table. What better moment to catch up on some of the twists and turns in the story arc so far?Back in 2024, long-time viewers will recall, Joorabchian launched a full-frontal assault on the Book 1 sale at Tattersalls in October, going toe-to-toe with the biggest beasts in the game to recruit 22.9m gns (£24m) of yearlings to race in Amo’s purple colours
Kevin Warsh: Trump’s ideal choice to push Fed to cut interest rates
Primark to split from food business despite warning of Iran war impact
Fifteen years after Steve Jobs, Tim Cook leaves a dramatically different Apple
Tim Cook to step down as Apple chief as John Ternus named replacement
Vibrating crotches, anal beads and suspicious minds: the long, strange history of chess cheats | Sean Ingle
‘I’m not the boss’: Lando Norris is articulate, open and intelligent – when he’s allowed to be