‘If he’d stayed on the golf course, we’d be in a better place’: experts on Trump’s tariffs, one year on
Before Donald Trump declared “liberation day” on 2 April 2025 and shocked the world by raising import tariffs on nearly every country the US did business with, he had spent almost three months causing chaos in Washington,The wholesale slashing of government jobs under Doge (the “department of government efficiency”) and the defunding of US aid agencies had shown White House watchers that the US president was in a hurry to upset institutions he considered profligate or useless,Investors quickly understood that chaos was an essential tool in Trump’s armoury,Almost as soon as he was inaugurated, there was a steady decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies,Investors sold assets denominated in dollars and bought assets elsewhere: Europe, Asia, South America.
“If you think that discouraging investors from buying assets in the US is a victory, then you don’t believe in a growing economy,” said Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard.“If it was possible for Trump to have spent the last 14 months on the golf course, we would be in a better place.”Russ Mould, the investment director of the British stockbroker AJ Bell, said: “America is still home to the world’s largest economy and its reserve currency, as well as the globe’s largest equity and bond markets, but investors continue to reassess their exposure one year on from liberation day.”The economy has either gone sideways or declined, depending on the preferred measure.Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that US companies, which were supposed to be the victors in Trump’s new tariff war, stopped hiring almost as soon as liberation day was announced.
Significant revisions in February to data covering 2025 pushed down payroll employment by 403,000 jobs, resulting in the addition of 181,000 jobs last year.This small boost is set against the 163 million people who are employed in the US.Figures from the Conference Board, a US thinktank, show consumer confidence sliding after Trump took office.A brief recovery appears to coincide with a huge climbdown on 12 May – the day the US and China agreed to defuse their post-liberation day tariff escalation.The next few months of steadily increasing confidence levels followed probably the calmest period in the second Trump presidency.
But sentiment began to fall again in the autumn as the White House battled with Congress over the federal budget deficit and much of the public sector was shut down.A poll by the University of Michigan showed consumer confidence at a near record low at the end of 2025.A six-month moving average produced by the Conference Board showed every generation, from baby boomers to gen Xers, had lost confidence in the economy over the past year.Trump’s liberation day executive order stated: “The decline of US manufacturing capacity threatens the US economy in other ways, including through the loss of manufacturing jobs.”Free market conservatives who railed against Trump’s protectionism were quick to tell the president how his tariff plan was never the answer.
Between January 2025 and March 2026, the US manufacturing sector shed 100,000 jobs.Worse, the ratio of manufacturing workers to total nonfarm employment fell to the lowest point since 1939, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking this data.Last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the US deficit in goods had expanded to an all-time high in 2025.As an illustration of the White House’s failure to boost exports and cut imports, critics said it was stark.Bryan Riley, the director of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation’s free trade initiative, said: “One year after liberation day, the evidence is in.
Tariffs failed even by the Trump administration’s own terms.They did not shrink the trade deficit, did not revitalise manufacturing and did not help farmers.It would be a mistake to replace one set of failed tariffs with another.”Trump, like Vladimir Putin, is seen by his critics as hollowing out the economy to pay for a populist agenda littered with pet projects.As Russia and the US appear trapped by a politics that leads to long-term economic decline, investors have sought other avenues.
Mould questioned whether the US would ever again be considered a capitalist haven with robust courts and presidents who sought to protect private assets,“Tariffs and strong-arm trade tactics, challenges to the independence of the US Federal Reserve and now military incursions in Latin America and the Middle East, as well as sabre-rattling over Greenland, are combining with lofty American stock market valuations and a soaring federal deficit and prompting investors to reassess the narrative of American exceptionalism,” he said,In a verdict on the US economy, the International Monetary Fund said that while it had proved resilient over the past year, there was plenty to worry about,In their usual diplomatic language, the Washington-based organisation’s directors said they were concerned about “the heightened domestic and global uncertainties posed by the significant ongoing policy shifts and the war in the Middle East”,They said that against this background, there was a need for “determined actions” to reduce government spending deficits, protect institutions such as the Fed from political interference, keep inflation in check and prevent financial markets from becoming destabilised.
Some major US companies have redirected their investments to Europe, but China has proved to be one of the main beneficiaries,In the year to February 2026, China’s industrial profits increased by 15,2%,It’s a boom that Beijing will struggle to repeat should Chinese companies face fuel and energy shortages and price increases,But the decline of two major powers can only be to China’s gain.
‘People need hope’: Greens court voters in battle for north-east council seats
“Thank you very much to all you would-be penguins huddling together for warmth,” said Jamie Driscoll to the dozen supporters braving bitingly cold, blustery weather to begin knocking on doors and delivering leaflets.The former Labour North of Tyne mayor is one of the Green party’s highest-profile recruits. Standing for Newcastle city council in the central Monument ward, he was giving a pep talk to a group that would probably have been even bigger, were some not in London for a demonstration against the far right.Driscoll is standing for election to a council with a minority Labour-led administration. The Greens, the Liberal Democrats and Reform expect to do well
Your Party to focus local election efforts on backing independent candidates
Your Party is to focus its local election efforts on a number of urban areas with large Muslim populations where Labour support has weakened, throwing its support behind supporting independent candidates and community groups.Party insiders have intentionally narrowed their focus to key targets including the London boroughs of Tower Hamlets, Newham and Redbridge, where locally rooted independent campaigns are already braced to challenge Labour.Jeremy Corbyn’s allies will back 250 candidates, the majority of them standing under independent or local banners rather than the Your Party brand.At the seemingly chaotic party conference in November, the party appeared to accept a targeted approach was necessary rather than standing everywhere. One insider said the approach was to “focus on particular areas and bastions” where the party could build durable local bases, rather than compete everywhere at once
Starmer calls for ‘ambitious’ new UK-EU ties as Trump threatens to quit Nato
The UK will seek an even deeper partnership with the EU because of the instability wreaked by Donald Trump’s war with Iran, Keir Starmer has said, adding that the moment called for a more ambitious deal with Brussels to strengthen trade and defence.His comments came as the US president again said he was considering pulling the US out of Nato, which he described as a “paper tiger”. Trump has frequently lambasted the UK and European nations for failing to support the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and criticised their militaries.In another barb at the prime minister, Trump told the Daily Telegraph he believed King Charles would have backed his strikes on Iran. The king is scheduled to visit the US later this month, and will address Congress on 28 April
Reeves criticises Trump for starting Iran war with no ‘clear plan’ to get out of it – as it happened
In her interview with Jeremy Vine, Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, also said she was “angry” about Donald Trump’s decision to go to war in Iran.double quotation markI’m angry that Donald Trump has chosen to go to war in the Middle East, a war that there’s not a clear plan of how to get out of. It’s why we didn’t want to enter this.Yes, it will have implications for our economy. I get that
Energy crisis: why ‘keep calm but cut down’ may be a better message for Labour
Labour ministers asked in recent days about the looming energy crisis sparked by the Iran war, including Keir Starmer himself, have essentially stuck to that reassuring wartime slogan: keep calm and carry on.“I think people should go about their lives as normal, knowing that the government is taking action to bring energy bills down,” James Murray, the chief secretary to the Treasury, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Tuesday.But there are growing fears the government’s “don’t panic” messaging may be underplaying the scale of the challenges ahead and crowding out sensible advice on cutting consumption.“It’s the wrong message,” says Andrew Sissons, the director of the climate programme at the research foundation Nesta, referring to the government’s communications on the war’s impact. “The reality is that the global supply of oil and gas is going to be down by maybe 20%
Nigel Farage’s biggest problem? Donald Trump
By day 31 of the war in the Middle East, Nigel Farage had become somewhat less vocal about the closeness of his relationship with Donald Trump.“Trying to read what’s really in the minds of people in the White House right at the moment is a mug’s game,” said the MP, as he unveiled his party’s latest “pledge” to cut the cost of living on Tuesday.Perched on a stool against the backdrop of departing flights, Farage had come to Heathrow airport to promote a plan to scrap taxes on short-haul journeys.Yet when the questions inevitably came about the conflict’s potentially catastrophic impact on Britain’s economy, the Reform leader was forced to grapple with what has suddenly become the primary barrier to people voting for his party: Donald Trump.The US president is now underwater in terms of his favourability even with Reform voters, who were previously the only set of UK party supporters who saw him positively, according to polling by More in Common
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