Inflation drop makes Bank of England early Christmas present to Reeves almost a certainty

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The sharper-than-expected drop in UK inflation to 3.2% last month has eliminated any lingering doubt about whether the Bank of England will deliver an early Christmas present by cutting the nation’s borrowing costs.Bank policymakers announce their December decision at noon on Thursday, and after last month’s five-four split vote were already widely expected to cut the base rate by 0.25 percentage points from its current level of 4%.However, they are likely to be reassured by the significant slowdown in the annual inflation rate, from 3.

6% in October on the consumer prices index measure to 3.2% last month.After the snapshot dropped, market betting on the likelihood of a rate cut rose past 95%.Some of the details were encouraging, too, with food price inflation in particular easing off, to an annual rate of 4.2% from 4.

9% in October.That is still an eye-watering rate of increase in the weekly supermarket shop but a move in the right direction.The Office for National Statistics highlighted month-on-month declines in the price of some foods, including a 4% fall in the cost of sugar, and 4.2% for pasta and couscous.Annual services inflation remains high, at 4.

4%, but that was down from a 4.5% rate in October, and the slowest rate since December 2024.The news will be welcome to Rachel Reeves.With taxes set to rise and the labour market clearly slowing, she will hope for what the Trades Union Congress called for on Wednesday: “A sequence of rate cuts [to deliver] … a shot in the arm that the economy needs.”The Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee has been cautious in recent months, fearing the predicted short-term “hump” in inflation this year could instead become a longer-term phenomenon, as wage growth remained stubbornly high.

They cut rates in February, May and August – but narrowly decided to pause last month, as pre-budget speculation about the scale of tax rises reached fever pitch.Policymakers have also been watching carefully to see how much of Reeves’s £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions, which kicked in in April, would be passed on to consumers in higher inflation.The answer appears to be, “some of it” – with some employers apparently also trimming hiring plans.But as a one-off jump in costs, this should become less of a worry over time.However, some MPC members have become increasingly concerned about the impact of continuing to hold rates as high as 4% in a slowing economy.

The independent member Swati Dhingra argued in September that much of the inflation increase in the UK was because of temporary factors and would pass, so the Bank should not be “overly cautious” about cuts.It was partly with the Bank’s rate setters in mind that Reeves took a series of measures in last month’s budget aimed at bringing inflation down, including by cutting household energy bills from next spring.She will hope the latest inflation data confirms the worst of the inflation hump is over – and the Bank can respond swiftly with rate cuts, helping to restore the feelgood factor to a fragile economy in the new year.
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All about the baby cheeses: how to curate a festive cheeseboard to remember

What should I serve on my Christmas cheeseboard?David, via emailIt will come as no surprise that Mathew Carver, founder of Pick & Cheese, The Cheese Barge and Rind, eats a lot of cheese, so in an effort to keep his festive selection interesting, he usually focuses on a specific area or region: “Last year, for instance, I spent Christmas in Scotland and served only local cheese.” Wales is up later this month. “I’m a creature of habit and tend always to go back to the cheeses I love, so this strategy makes me try new ones,” he explains – plus there’s nothing to stop you slipping in a classic such as comté in there too, because, well, Christmas.Unless you’re going for “the baller move” of just serving one glorious cheese, Bronwen Percival, technical director of Neal’s Yard Dairy, would punt for three or four “handsome wedges, rather than slivers of too many options”. After all, few have “the time or attention for a board that needs a lot of explaining”

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How to make nesselrode pudding – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass

A luxurious iced dessert stuffed full of boozy dried fruit, candied peel and frozen chestnut pureeThis festive, frozen chestnut puree dessert is often credited to the great 19th-century chef Antonin Carême, even though the man himself conceded that this luxurious creation was that of Monsieur Mony, chef to the Russian diplomat Count Nesselrode (albeit, he observed somewhat peevishly, inspired by one of his own chestnut puddings). It was originally served with hot, boozy custard – though I think it’s just enough as it is – and it makes a fabulous Christmas centrepiece,Prep 15 min Soak Overnight Cook 20 min Freeze 2 hr+ Serves 6125g currants, or raisins or sultanas50g good-quality candied peel, finely chopped75ml maraschino, or other sweet alcohol of your choice (see step 2)1 vanilla pod, split, or 1 tsp vanilla extract600ml whipping cream 4 egg yolks 50g caster sugar 45g flaked almonds 125g whole peeled cooked chestnuts, or unsweetened chestnut pureePut the fruit and peel in a bowl. Mony’s recipe is reported to have contained currants and raisins (though other vine fruit, or indeed any chopped dried fruit you prefer, will work), as well as candied citron, the peel of a mild, thick-skinned citrus, which is available online, as are other candied peels that are far nicer than those chewy, greasy nubs sold in supermarkets.Add the alcohol: maraschino, an Italian sour cherry liqueur, is the original choice, but Claire Macdonald uses an orange triple sec, Victorian ice queen Agnes B Marshall brandy and noyaux, an almond-flavoured liqueur made from apricot kernels, and Regula Ysewijn mixes maraschino with dark rum. Madeira, sherry, port, etc, would surely be good, too

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Festive food for less: Christmas dinner with all the cost trimmings

Figures show that the total cost of the all-important Christmas dinner is up 5% on a year ago, with the price of important elements such as pigs in blankets and stuffing up by 7%.With the cost of living still biting, however, a supermarket price war is taking some of the sting out of high food costs – with Aldi and Lidl selling the ingredients for a main Christmas meal for eight for less than £12.According to exclusive data prepared for Guardian Money by the analysts Assosia, the price of a frozen extra-large turkey is up 10p a kilogram to £3.70 (a 3% rise on a year ago) – which for an 8kg bird works out at £29.60

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The 12 condiments of Christmas

Salt, sweet, bitter, acid, umami. While we don’t think to use too much “sweet” before dessert, it can counterbalance and enhance other flavours. Maple syrup is my sweetener of choice during the holidays because it just tastes cozy. Add it to roasted root vegetables or a poultry glaze, and it’s especially tasty in drinks, from hot apple cider to eggnog and even mulled wine.I’ve never met anyone who didn’t like butter, or ooh and ah at a homemade one

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‘Every chef should train here’: Turkish restaurant ranks fourth on list of London’s top food spots

On a list of London’s best restaurants, you would expect to see the usual Michelin-starred suspects such as The Ledbury, Ikoyi and The Ritz. But high among these culinary heavyweights sits a humble salonu tucked away in the depths of north London.Neco Tantuni, a small Turkish eatery specialising in the foodie delights of Mersin, a city located on the southern coast of Turkey, has been crowned the fourth best restaurant in London by Vittles, the trendy food magazine that has become a bible for those looking for the best (and more off-the-radar) grub in the capital.“I’m totally shocked,” says Eren Kaya, whose parents hard graft has resulted in their restaurant, situated in a far-flung corner of Enfield, being placed near the top of the 99-strong list.The small shop, which was a greasy spoon cafe before being transformed into the hugely popular food hotspot, hasn’t fully shed the character of its former self

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Ho, ho, Hamburg: bringing the flavours of a true German Christmas market home

From glühwein to lebkuchen, bratwurst to stollen, recreating the delicacies I sampled in the city’s festive markets is wholly achievable. Plus, a new digital cookbook for a good cause Sign up here for our weekly food newsletter, FeastWithout wanting to sound tediously Scrooge-like, the German-style markets that have become seasonal fixtures in many British cities over the last few decades never make me feel particularly festive. What’s remotely Christmassy – or German – about Dubai-chocolate churros and Korean fried chicken, I grumble as I drag the dog (who enjoys all such things) around their perimeters.Hamburg’s markets, however, which I was myself dragged around last weekend, are a very different story. For a start, the city has many of them, mainly fairly small – and some, such as the “erotic Christmas market” in St Pauli, with a particular theme