Woolworths struggles to win back ‘price trust’ from customers – and investors – as Coles’ value rises

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Woolworths has shed more than $5bn in market value as it struggles to regain customer “price trust” and stretches product availability.Australia’s biggest supermarket chain on Wednesday reported sales rose 3% in the year to June and 2% in July and August compared to the year before, while profits in 2024-25 fell by a fifth, to nearly $1.4bn.Its market value slipped from more than $40bn to less than $35bn on Wednesday, while Coles rose to a record value of $31bn.Coles has attracted a greater share of sales, recording faster growth of 4% in the year to June and 5% in July and August on the year before, lifting annual profits to more than $1bn.

Woolworths cut the shelf prices of 500 items in 2025 in a bid to regain customers’ trust and improve public perception, but chief executive Amanda Bardwell told investors sales momentum was yet to pick up.“That was always about a long-term investment … to build price trust after a very disruptive 12 or 18 months, so that will take time to flow through,” she said on Wednesday.Short-term boosts such as Woolworths’ Disney Discs promotion in July had also underperformed, Bardwell said, blaming it on customer “fatigue” after running collectible programs “multiple, multiple times”.The company forecast supermarket earnings would grow slower than market expectations, with price cuts to sap $100m.One analyst said the slowing shopper momentum signalled customers were switching from Woolworths to Coles.

“That’s $100m of earnings they’re basically sacrificing to lower shelf prices to rebuild customer trust [and] Coles will be looking at this and thinking … ‘how we can respond?’” said Lochlan Halloway, an equity markets strategist at Morningstar,“Coles is taking share from Woolworths … and I don’t think [investors] can see, at the moment, a credible path for Woolies to close the gap,” he said,Michael Toner, an RBC Capital Markets analyst, agreed that Woolworths’ ongoing underperformance suggested the company was continuing to lose market share to Coles,Stock availability issues at Woolworths had impacted perceptions and customer satisfaction, with consistent shortages on Sundays, Bardwell said on Wednesday, citing the impact of industrial action at Woolworths’ warehouses,Coles’ product availability, meanwhile, has been boosted by new centres distributing products to supermarkets and online shoppers, Coles’s chief executive, Leah Weckert, told investors this week.

“Our availability metrics are probably now at the best we’ve seen them since pre-Covid,” she said,Weckert said product delivery had helped Coles take advantage of “green shoots” in consumer spending, as household budgets recover and inflation and interest rates ease,“[Customers] are still very cautious … so entertaining at home, eating at home instead of eating out, shopping at multiple retailers: that’s all still quite prevalent,” she said,“You put those three things together and that’s a combination that’s working quite well for us as a supermarket,”Coles’s pre-tax margin on earnings rose to 5.

3%, with its expanding distribution centres helping cut costs to get products in stores and to online shoppers, and stock loss declining.Woolworths’ pre-tax margin slipped to 4%, as theft and product waste rose and customers swapped from their typical purchases to cheaper alternatives, according to the company.Investor sentiment could turn, however, as Woolworths’ price cuts brought back customers, Halloway said, noting neither was likely to lose market dominance.“These are century-old businesses, and every now and again, one’s going to outperform the other,” he said.“They’re the dominant players, and I don’t expect that to be eroded.

”Both supermarkets have faced pressure in the last year over findings they hiked prices during a cost-of-living crisis to boost profits and are defending legal proceedings over allegations they misled shoppers by offering “illusory” discounts on hundreds of common products.
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