​The Guide #219: Don’t panic! Revisiting the millennium’s wildest cultural predictions

A picture


I love revisiting articles from around the turn of the millennium, a fascinatingly febrile period when everyone – but journalists especially – briefly lost the run of themselves.It seems strange now to think that the ticking over of a clock from 23:59 to 00:00 would prompt such big feelings, of excitement, terror, of end-of-days abandon, but it really did (I can remember feeling them myself as a teenager, especially the end-of-days-abandon bit.)Of course, some of that feeling came from the ticking over of the clock itself: the fears over the Y2K bug might seem quite silly today, but its potential ramifications – planes falling out of the sky, power grids failing, entire life savings being deleted in a stroke – would have sent anyone a bit loopy.There’s a very good podcast, Surviving Y2K, about some of the people who responded particularly drastically to the bug’s threat, including a bloke who planned to sit out the apocalypse by farming and eating hamsters.It does seem funny – and fitting – in the UK, column inches about this existential threat were equalled, perhaps even outmatched, by those about a big tarpaulin in Greenwich.

Honestly, it’s staggering how animated so many people were by the Millennium Dome: I get that it was a colossal New Labour white elephant, but did it really merit such breathless, teeth-gnashing coverage? (Click a few pages into the Guardian’s millennium tag for a sense of the collective mania at the time.) Especially when you consider that its eventual fate, rather than being razed to the ground or shot into space, was to be turned into a successful, if soulless, entertainment venue.Alongside worrying about the Dome, and the small matter of the world ending, the millennium offered a rare opportunity for grand reflection – on the thousand years of history just gone – and wild prognostication on every possible topic: politics, religion, sport, technology and, of course, culture.Looking back at past predictions and pointing out how wrong they were is a pretty cheap sport, like shooting Mystic Megs in a barrel.But given that, earlier this year, we looked at how music, film and TV had changed over the past 25 years, it seems instructive to see what people thought those next 25 years and beyond would look like.

And what’s fascinating is how close, but also how far away, predictions of the future of those forms were.Take film.Around the turn of the millennium, the major disrupting force in cinema was the arrival of digital projectors, which it was confidently predicted, would end the century-old use of celluloid.There were countless articles fretting about the ramifications of this shift, both aesthetically and in a business sense and, in a way, those articles were right to be concerned: by the mid 2010s, 90% of movies were shot digitally rather than on film.They did, though, rather miss the wood for the trees: the streaming revolution and struggles faced by cinemas would make the digital/film face-off look a minuscule issue by comparison.

And, anyway, plenty of directors have made it their mission to keep the film flame alive – see Brady Corbet dragging his hefty 70mm canisters into Venice to premiere The Brutalist (pictured above).At the turn of the millennium, the TV industry was worried about a gamechanging innovation too: personal video recorders (PVRs) like TiVo, which they feared would completely destroy the ad market by allowing audiences to record shows and whiz through commercials.They were a big enough deal for author Michael Lewis, of Moneyball and The Big Short fame, to devote several thousand words to the subject in the New York Times.Of course those recorders were merely a stop on the journey towards total on-demand TV offered by Netflix et al, but some smart people were already aware of the direction of travel, like one director of a PVR company who was quoted in a Guardian feature on the trend.“Television schedules will shift from a time-based paradigm to one based purely on content,” he predicted.

“People will operate channels according to their own interests,It will have a dramatic effect on those general channels which are ad funded,Maybe this is the end for scheduling,”More than any other cultural medium, the music industry was already vaguely aware of the changes it was facing – this despite the fact that 2000 would become the most successful ever year for CD sales,In the autumn of 1999, the Observer asked a panel of musicians, label staff and DJs for their predictions, and there were some impressively accurate calls on where music was heading – Parlophone A&R Keith Wozencroft noted the possibility of making an album from your bedroom, and a decade before Boiler Room, Paul Oakenfold said that he was already doing live shows online.

Pete Waterman’s crystal ball must have been fogging over when he predicted that people would start buying their music “not via the Internet, as most people think, but digital TV – the digital shopping services will blossom in the next five years”.But he was on the money in his claim that “music markets worldwide will converge”, citing the success of Ricky Martin as evidence for a global appetite for Latin pop, an appetite that, as proved by the likes of Bad Bunny, is just as strong today.Of course a whopping great cultural innovation on the horizon that was completely missed by all the prognosticators was podcasts: the term would be coined only a few years later (in the pages of the Guardian, I’m contractually obliged to remind you).And there’s no mention in any of the turn-of-the-millennium predictions of what will possibly be the biggest change of all for culture this century and beyond: artificial intelligence.That’s a wave that is still breaking, and no doubt plenty of the predictions being made about its impact on film, TV and music will be wrong (I’m less than convinced by the idea that we’ll use AI to star in our own movies alongside Marilyn Monroe, for example).

And of course, in 25 years there will be people writing about how way off the predictions made today turned out to be – well, if we’re not in a post-apocalyptic wasteland eating hamster meat by then.Sign up to The GuideGet our weekly pop culture email, free in your inbox every Fridayafter newsletter promotionIf you want to read the complete version of this newsletter please subscribe to receive The Guide in your inbox every Friday
cultureSee all
A picture

Susan Loppert obituary

My partner Susan Loppert, who has died aged 81, was the moving force behind the development of Chelsea and Westminster Hospital Arts in the 1990s. This pioneering programme, which Susan directed for 10 years (1993-2003), was a hugely innovative and imaginative project to bring the visual and performing arts into the heart of London’s newest teaching hospital.As Susan wrote in an article for the Guardian in 2006, this was not about “the odd Monet reproduction or carols at Christmas … but 2,000 original works of art hung in the vast spaces of the stunning atrial building” as well as in clinics, wards and treatment areas – many of them specially commissioned. And on top of this, full-length operas, an annual music festival, Indian dancers in residence, and workshops by artists from poets to puppeteers.Susan was born in Grahamstown, South Africa, to Phyllis (nee Orkin, and known as “Inkey” because of her dark hair), a lawyer and anti-apartheid activist, and her husband Eric Loppert, a manager

A picture

Oh yes he is! Kiefer Sutherland dives into the world of panto

Hollywood megastars hit Leeds this year to make Tinsel Town, a feelgood festive comedy about panto. The 24 star, Rebel Wilson and more talk about their addiction to Greggs sausage rolls – and epic brawls with Danny DyerTwenty-odd years ago, I binged a TV series on DVD for the first time. At my mate’s house in a village outside Harrogate, I was glued to Jack Bauer shooting his way through 24. We probably only made it to episode six before surrendering to sleep for school the next day.Fast forward to the start of this year, and photos are all over the local news of Kiefer Sutherland out and about in nearby market towns Knaresborough and Wetherby

A picture

O come out ye faithful: a joyful roundup of UK culture this Christmas

The 12 Beans of ChristmasTouring to 19 December Last year, character comedians Adam Riches and John Kearns joined forces for an archly silly tribute to crooners Michael Ball and Alfie Boe. Now Riches is back with another leftfield celebrity riff as he gives his Game of Thrones-era Sean Bean impression (as seen on 8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown and his Edinburgh show Dungeons’n’Bastards) a yuletide twist. Rachel AroestiThe BFGRoyal Shakespeare theatre, Stratford-upon-Avon, to 7 February Are you ready for snozzcumbers and dream-catchers, for norphans and whizzpoppers? A stellar team have come together for this world premiere of Roald Dahl’s children’s classic, with a script courtesy of Tom Wells (Jumpers for Goalposts) and puppetry by the masterful Toby Olié (Spirited Away). John Leader heads up the cast for this beloved story of an orphan befriending a giant; Daniel Evans directs. Kate WyverCount Arthur Strong Is Charles Dickens in A Christmas CarolTouring to 14 December The reliably bewildered and chronically digressive one-time variety star takes his tangent-riddled festive show on tour again

A picture

Nominate your favourite Australian children’s picture book of all time

A good picture book is pure magic – and Australia has produced some of the best. Nominate your favourite hereThe best children’s picture books can be pure magic for adults, too: witty and wise prose or poetry that is a joy to read aloud, coupled with vivid, evocative illustrations that live on in the memory – and the culture – for decades.Australia has produced more than its fair share of classics, from the effortlessly educational to the cheekily irreverent, and we want you to nominate your favourite for a major reader’s poll we will run in late January: the best Australian children’s picture book of all time.To be eligible a book must be:Primarily intended to be read aloud to children who don’t yet read independently;Able to be read in a few minutes – we’re looking for a child’s picture book, rather than a graphic novel or illustrated chapter book;Written by an Australian (or someone we’ve claimed);Published in Australia.If the respondent is under 18, a parent or guardian must complete the form on their behalf

A picture

Jimmy Kimmel: ‘Thankful that we only have five weeks left in this year’

Late-night hosts recapped Donald Trump’s especially weird address at the annual Thanksgiving turkey pardon.On his final show before the Thanksgiving holiday, Jimmy Kimmel counted his blessings. “This year, I am most thankful that we only have five weeks left in this year,” he joked on Tuesday evening.Meanwhile at the White House “the presidential ketchup boat is filled to the brim and ready to go.” On Tuesday, at the “freshly paved over Rose Garden”, the president presided over the annual pardon of the turkeys, “which at this point are the only thing that Trump hasn’t pardoned this year”

A picture

Seth Meyers on Trump’s meeting with Mamdani: ‘I’ve never seen Trump this smitten before’

Late-night hosts discussed Donald Trump’s strangely friendly meeting with New York’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.Seth Meyers devoted his Monday Closer Look segment to the bizarrely friendly White House meeting between Donald Trump and New York’s mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani, where the president seemed downright pleased to be meeting the Democratic socialist that his administration has long demonized.“He looks like a five-year-old meeting Mickey Mouse,” said an amused Meyers. Though Trump had previously called Mamdani a “communist” and a “total nutjob” the president seemed charmed by the 34-year-old mayor.“I’ve never seen Trump this smitten before,” the Late Night host said