The deadlock in the Middle East confict has prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its oil price forecast.Goldman Sachs now estimate that Brent crude will trade at about $90 a barrrel in the last quarter of this year, up from an earlier projection of $80.US crude is forecast to average $83 in October-December, up from $75 before.Goldman blames “lower Persian Gulf production” for the upgrade, telling clients:double quotation markWe now assume a normalisation in Gulf exports by end-June (v mid-May prior) and a slower Gulf production recovery.The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.

Goldman’s analysts estimate that 14.5m barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production has been lost, leading to a record drawdown of global oil inventories of 11m-12m barrels a day this month.The jump in oil prices will lead to ‘softer demand’, they explain:double quotation markWe assume that global oil demand falls on a year-over-year basis by 1.7mb/d in 2026Q2 and 0.1mb/d in 2026 given the jump in refined product prices.

Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.Goldman also warns that the risks to its forecasts are to the upsides, and lay out three scenarios for how events could unfold:Adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just over $100 assuming Gulf exports only normalise by end-July.Severely adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average at nearly $120 assuming Gulf exports normalise by end-July and 2.5mb/d of persistent reduction to Gulf capacity.This 2.

5mb/d of scarring is equivalent to Hormuz flows not recovering above 70% (till pipeline capacity is expanded).Benign scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just under $80 assuming Gulf exports normalise by mid-June, no capacity reduction, and stronger US and core OPEC supply responses.[Goldman had previously trimmed their forecast for the oil price earlier this month, after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced]Time to wrap up…..Oil is trading at its highest level in nearly three weeks, as the strait of Hormuz remains closed.

With the US-Iran peace talks deadlocked, investors are concerned that oil and gas supplies may remain disrupted for longer than hoped.But there are also reports that Iran is offering to end its chokehold on the strait of Hormuz without addressing its nuclear program.Brent crude is up 3.5% at $109 a barrel, its highest level since 7 April.Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts, noting that the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict is hurting production.

Its base case is now that Brent crude trades at an average of $90 a barrel in the last three months of this year – but in an ‘adverse scenario’, of more disruption and production damage, it could average $120 a barrel.UK oil major Shell has agreed a $13.6bn deal to buy Canadian energy company ARC Resources, boosting its hydrocarbon resources.Pakistan’s central bank has raised interest rates, as it tried to prevent the jump in energy prices driving up inflation.Britain’s retail sector has weakened this month, with the CBI reporting that sales volumes were particularly weak for the time of year this month.

Jewellery chain Claire’s is closing its final UK stores on Tuesday, cutting about 1,000 jobs months after falling into administration.Britain’s stock market has closed at its lowest level in almost a month.The FTSE 100 share index has dropped by 58 points, or 0.56%, to close at 10,312 points – its lowest close since 31 March.That’s its sixth daily fall in a row.

Newsflash: Jewellery chain Claire’s is closing its final UK stores tomorrow, cutting about 1,000 jobs months after falling into administration.Sources said staff at Claire’s, which collapsed in January, had been asked to pack up the final stock and equipment with the final outlets to formally close on Tuesday after successive waves of closures in recent weeks.Administrators at Kroll confirmed that all stores ceased trading on Monday and “all store employees have been advised of redundancy”.More than 100 shops are understood to be closing.Here’s the full story, by my colleague Sarah Butler.

UK government bonds are weakening today, as pressure continues to mount on prime minister Keir Starmer.With bond prices falling, the yield (or interest rate) on 30-year UK bonds has risen by over 7 basis points to 5.66%.That puts them on track for their highest close since September 2025, when they hit a 27-year high.We learned earlier today that Starmer will face a vote on whether to launch a standards investigation into his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.

With rival Labour party factions now circulating informal proposals for an “orderly transition” of power away from the PM, City investors are assessing whether a replacement leader might relax the government’s commitment to its fiscal rules, boost spending, or hike taxes.However, UK bonds may also be suffering from the higher oil price, which threatens to drive uup inflation.Shares in ARC Resources have jumped by 22% on the Toronto stock market, as investors react to Shell’s takeover deal.Wall Street has opened choppily at the start of the new week.The Dow Jones industrial average dipped in early trading, before rising by 30 points or 0.

06% to 49,261 points.The broader S&P 500 index is flat.The Bank of England is not expected to follow Pakistan’s lead and raise interest rates on Thursday, after its next meeting.City economists broadly expect the BoE to leave borrowing costs unchanged, despite the pick-up in inflation from the Iran war.Last week’s inflation reading of 3.

3% sets the tone for “a very interesting Monetary Policy Report” on Thursday, says Professor Costas Milas of the University of Liverpool’s Management School.He tells us:double quotation markI am a bit worried about MPC forecasts conditional again on market expectations of interest rates, the latter of course changing all the times as Trump “tweets” his volatile thoughts.A “cleaner” way of going about that is for MPC members to “bite the bullet” and condition forecasts on their anonymous views.Interestingly, Kevin Warsh [the nominee to run America’s Federal Reserve] argued that once policymakers reveal their economic forecasts, they can become “prisoners” of their own words.This will be music in the ears of MPC members.

But, of course, this is not a binding commitment and MPC members can (should) justifiably change views as events unfold.So, there is no harm to have an indication of what they think about the future, i.e.no …”prisoner’s dilemma” here!!!Newsflash: Pakistan’s central bank has raised interest rates, as it tried to fight the inflationary impact of the Iran war.The State Bank of Pakistan has lifted its key policy rate by 100 basis points (one percentage point) to 11.

5%.Its monetary policy committee warn that the “prolonging of the Middle East conflict has intensified risks to the macroeconomic outlook”, citing global energy prices, freight charges, insurance premiums and supply chain disruptions.It adds:double quotation markIn this backdrop, the Committee assessed that inflation is likely to increase and remain above the target range in the next few quarters.Accordingly, the MPC deemed it necessary to maintain a tighter policy stance to keep inflation expectations anchored and contain secondround effects of the current supply shock to bring inflation within the target range.This will be important to preserve macroeconomic stability, which is necessary for achieving sustainable economic growth.

This decision is something of a surprise, as six of 10 analysts in a Reuters poll had expected rates to remain on hold at 10.5%.Oil and gas giant Shell is boosting its energy output by buying Canadian energy company ARC Resources.Shell has reached agreement to acquire ARC, which is focused on the Montney shale basin in British Columbia and Alberta, in a $13.6bn cash and shares deal.

According to Shell, the deal will add 370,000 barrels a day of oil and gas, increase its exposure to “long-duration, low-cost and top quartile low carbon intensity shale gas and liquids”, and generate double digit returns.Shell’s chief executive officer Wael Sawan says:double quotation mark“ARC is a high-quality, low-cost and top quartile low carbon intensity producer operating in the Montney shale basin that complements our existing footprint in Canada and strengthens our resource base for decades to come.We are accessing uniquely positioned assets and welcoming colleagues that bring deep expertise which, combined with Shell’s strong basin level performance, provides a compelling proposition for shareholders.”“This establishes Canada as a heartland for Shell while furthering our strategy to deliver more value with less emissions.”Under the deal agreed between the two companies, ARC investors will receive 8.

20 Canadian dollars in cash and 0.40247 ordinary shares of Shell for each ARC share.That works out as 25% cash and 75% shares, based on closing prices last week.Shell will also take on $2.8bn of net debt, giving the deal an enterprise value of $16.

4bn.Shares in Intel are set to rise to a new 26-year high when trading begins in Wall Street in less than two hours.On Friday, Intel’s shares surged by over 23%, meaning they finally rose above their peak in the 2000 dot-com bubble.The jump came after Intel smashed Wall Street expectations, with revenues bolstered by strong demand from the AI sector.Its recovery, after so many year, highights “the potential for huge gains and the inherent risks and patience required when investing in individual equities.

” says Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, who shared the above chart.He points out that Intel’s share price was still down 70% compared with that 2000AD peak as recently as the third quarter of 2025, but is now up over 120% so far this year.Reid also has a cautionary word for those invested in high-flying AI stocks today:double quotation markThe fact that it took Intel 26 years to surpass its record high, during a period when the S&P 500 climbed approximately +370% (over +650% including reinvested dividends), highlights not only the volatility of investing in single stocks but also the perils of picking the wrong entry point in high-beta sectors such as technology.Imagine waiting a quarter of a century for your investment to break even, while the broader market delivered substantial returns.This raises the question: could a similar fate await today’s high-flyers? Could Nvidia, for instance, only surpass its recent peaks in 2052, a scenario reminiscent of Intel’s journey?While any tech analyst would likely scoff at such a comparison, citing numerous differences, Intel’s history serves as a powerful reminder of the inherent uncertainty in individual stocks.

It was the second largest stock by market cap at its peak in 2000.At least seven ships - mainly dry bulk vessels - crossed the strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, in line with muted activity in recent days, Reuters reports.This small flow of traffic is continuing while talks between Iran and the United States remain stalled.The vessels included ships leaving from Iraqi ports and one dry bulk vessel from an Iranian port, according to ship tracking data from Kpler and separate satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax.Before the war began, around 140 ships would pass through the strait, to and from the gulf, each day.