UK food inflation ‘could hit 9% this year’ as Iran war drives up energy prices
Food inflation could hit 9% in the UK this year, even if the strait of Hormuz opens within the next few weeks, figures suggest, as the Iran war pushes up energy prices.The Food and Drink Federation, which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, has predicted prices will rise by “at least” 9% by the end of 2026, almost tripling a forecast of 3.2% that was made before the Middle East conflict.Dr Liliana Danila, the chief economist at the FDF, said the industry was already facing big rises in energy, transport and packaging costs, as well as disruptions across its supply chains.“The current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict,” she said.
“Given the scale and speed of these cost increases, and despite companies’ best efforts not to pass price increases on, it’s clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead,”The 9% forecast assumes that the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel, will reopen to cargo traffic within the next two to three weeks, and the majority of large energy facilities, such as oil, gas and fertiliser sites, return to normal within a year,The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is preparing to meet the bosses of the UK’s biggest supermarkets on Wednesday afternoon,The bosses of Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Morrisons are among the executives expected to attend the discussions about the potential impact on the cost of living and possible supply squeezes triggered by the conflict in the Middle East,The food company Princes has raised its prices on all of its products in response to “unprecedented cost pressures” stemming from the war.
The company, which makes tinned tuna under the Princes brand, as well as Napolina pasta and Crosse & Blackwell soups, wrote a letter to its customers telling them the price hike was because of soaring costs, the Grocer reported.UK farmers and producers have said that without government help with surging energy bills there could be shortages of domestic tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and aubergines.Growers’ representatives have said that without support from ministers, or the retailers they supply, fresh produce businesses could go bust later this year as higher costs bite.Simon Conway, the chair of the British Tomato Growers’ Association (BGTA) said: “Growers only historically only make money in the last few weeks of the season, as margins are so tiny in this sector.No one can absorb these kind of cost shocks, they have to be worked through with retailers.
”Many businesses, which typically fix their energy contracts from April, will be hit by a sharp rise in costs from Wednesday amid increases in standing charges, the fixed daily cost added to bills for accessing the UK’s gas and electricity network.The BTGA and other food producers are campaigning to be classed as “energy intensive users” by the government, a classification that would help to reduce their bills.If there is no support, “businesses will fail”, said Conway.Energy bills are just one extra cost facing food producers, along with higher prices for packaging and the fuel needed to transport goods to retailers.The effect of a string of cost increases “hasn’t hit yet but is coming towards the end of the summer”, said Conway.
He added that retailers remembered the gaps on shelves in early 2023, when there were fresh produce shortages,Meanwhile, household energy bills are due to fall until July,but are then expected to jump,The government is coming under increasing pressure to provide support on higher energy bills, although so far it has suggested that any help would be targeted for the most vulnerable households,In an interview with the BBC, Reeves said the government was looking at ways in which it could support people based on their household income,However, she did not commit to cutting fuel duty or VAT on petrol, saying she had to be careful with promises to lower prices too much as it could then push up overall inflation, interest rates and taxes.
Karl Turner has Labour whip suspended after criticism of Starmer and No 10
The MP Karl Turner has lost the Labour whip after making a series of interventions criticising Keir Starmer and No 10, especially on changes to jury trials.A Labour source said Turner had been informed by the chief whip, Jonathan Reynolds, that he had had the whip suspended because of his conduct. Turner denied he had been informed by the whips and said he had learned about his suspension from journalists.The decision is understood to have been prompted in part by an interview given by Turner, the MP for Hull East, to Jody McIntyre, a campaigner who stood at the 2024 elections against Labour’s Jess Phillips.Turner wrote on X: “I am being told that I have had the whip suspended but I have not had any notification from the whips about this
Opaque party funding affects all of British politics | Letters
While I agree with much of Polly Toynbee’s opinion piece (How will we know Labour is really cleaning up party funding? When Reform and the Tories fight like hell to stop it, 26 March), I was left a little concerned about the tone, which seemingly presented this as uniquely a Tory/Reform UK matter.Dirty money (or just opaque funding) in British politics is not really such a sectarian issue. The proposals would appear to do nothing to prevent a party from accepting, for example, £4m from a hedge fund in the run-up to an election, and not declaring it until afterwards (Labour/Quadrature). Nor would they prevent a party engaging a thinktank that had itself accepted £200m from a rightwing American tech oligarch, bringing them into government, and installing staff in the heart of the policymaking process (Labour/Tony Blair Institute/Larry Ellison of Oracle).But it was heartening to see Toynbee begin to address the way that disparities in funding distort the democratic process
Nigel Farage to snub US conservative conference brought to UK by Liz Truss
Nigel Farage will snub a major conference of US conservatives that is being brought to the UK by Liz Truss.The short-lived former prime minister, who was accused of crashing the economy, was chosen by the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) to lead a version of the event in the UK in July.She announced this on stage in Texas on Monday while next to Matt Schlapp, commentator and chair of the event, which in the US has hosted major figures including Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Tulsi Gabbard and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.However, mainstream conservative figures in the UK seem wary to be associated with the Truss-led event.“We will be steering well clear of it,” a Reform UK source said, dashing any hopes that Farage would attend
Zack Polanski meets unions in attempt to get them to switch party funding to Greens
Zack Polanski has kicked off a charm offensive designed to convince trade unions to stop funding Labour and throw their weight behind the Green party, as he delivered the first in a series of speeches to union conferences.The Green leader has had “good conversations” with 10 trade unions, including some affiliated to Labour, according to party sources, and is due to address the University and College Union and the Bakers, Food and Allied Workers Union, not affiliated with Labour, in the coming months.The UK’s largest unions – Unite and Unison – were among those that denied negotiating with Polanski and said they remained affiliated to the Labour party. However, Unite is holding internal discussions about its future relationship with Labour before a special conference in 2027 at which it could potentially decide to disaffiliate.While Green party sources admitted that discussions Polanski had held with individual unions varied in formality, some union insiders were adamant that supporting the Greens would be a no-go area, and that such discussions were “much ado about nothing”
Kemi the attention seeker somehow always makes two plus two equal five | John Crace
Losing sleep over the war in Iran? Worried sick about the cost of living? Can’t pay your energy bills? Then relax. Because Kemi Badenoch has a displacement activity for you.It’s becoming increasingly easy to understand the Conservative leader by viewing her as a hyperactive five-year-old at the back of the class who is constantly disruptive. Who can’t get through a lesson without some kind of attention-seeking behaviour. Who has a constant desire to be indulged even though her first reactions are invariably wrong
Zack Polanski tells NEU teachers’ union that Greens would abolish ‘toxic’ Ofsted – as it happened
The Green party would abolish Ofsted because they view it as a “failed institution”, Zack Polanski, its leader, has told a teaching union conference.Polanski also said that the Greens were opposed to the academisation of schools and that they believe that Labour is not fixing the “failings” in the system by the Tories, but embedding them.In a speech to the National Education Union’s annual conference, Polanski said:double quotation markOfsted is a toxic, failed institution which is harming teachers and children – and it’s time to end it.Talking about school structures more generally, he said:double quotation markThis government’s reforms are simply tinkering around the edges.We need to end the Ofsted era entirely and move towards a genuinely collaborative model
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